NeffsvilleWx Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 interesting, every forecast i read says slight chance of normal t-storms and rain tomorrow evening, even from CTP. Playing it safe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Almost no chance higher than 5% tornado IMO. And that might be north of the area. SPC must know you aren't here with that large 10% contour And Kenny, fix the subtitle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Also with the talk of a possible upgrade to mod risk... 15% tor is mod risk and 45% wind is mod risk... so we shall see if we do get a mod risk which one is being raised to higher probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 The aforementioned discussion from SPC for our region: ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OH RIVER REGION TO MID-ATLC AND CAROLINAS... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN BAND NEAR OR AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT BY MIDDAY...OVER WRN PORTIONS OUTLOOK AREA...THEN MOVE NEWD WHILE BACKBUILDING SWD. NET EFFECT SHOULD BE EWD SPREAD AND INCREASE IN BOTH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND SVR POTENTIAL AS FOREGOING AIR MASS DESTABILIZES DIURNALLY. DAMAGING GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY WITH DOMINANT QUASI-LINEAR STORM MODE...ENHANCED LOCALLY BY TRACKS OF BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS. MANY WIND-DAMAGE EVENTS MAY OCCUR...ALTHOUGH FCST LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES DO NOT YET APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT GUSTS OF 65 KT OR GREATER. PATCHES OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ALSO MAY BECOME SFC-BASED DURING MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON IN FOREGOING WARM SECTOR...AMIDST STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SVR. GREATEST RELATIVE SPATIAL OVERLAP/DENSITY OF TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE FROM N-CENTRAL/NERN NC ACROSS CENTRAL VA TO CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. THAT CORRIDOR REPRESENTS SPATIAL OVERLAP OF THREAT FROM 1. EARLIER/MORE DISCRETE AND DIURNAL CONVECTION...WHERE DISCRETE OR EMBEDDED/CLUSTERED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SPECIFIC FOCI FOR LOW-LEVEL FORCING ARE MORE NEBULOUS AND UNCERTAIN...AND 2. MORE CERTAIN ARRIVAL OF LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING QLCS ACTIVITY CONTAINING EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. FCST HODOGRAPHS...WHILE FAVORABLE IN BOTH REGIMES...DO NOT APPEAR AS LARGE OVER BROAD AREAS AS ON MOST ERN-CONUS TORNADO OUTBREAK DAYS...AND THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES ATTM REGARDING DENSITY/LONGEVITY OF ANY SUPERCELL MODES. EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF WARM-SECTOR DESTABILIZATION ALSO REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN ATTM...BECAUSE OF LARGE AREA OF ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY/CLUSTERED PRECIP. THIS INDICATES DISPLACEMENT BETWEEN MOST UNSTABLE/MOIST MARINE AIR OVER SRN/ERN CAROLINAS AND STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR FARTHER N ACROSS PA/WV/MD AND NRN VA. THIS ALSO IS MAIN FACTOR PRECLUDING GREATER SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...PROBABILITIES ARE KEPT WITHIN UPPER REACHES OF CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK BIN FOR NOW...THOUGH UPGRADE IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ONCE SOME OF THESE DESTABILIZATION AND MOISTURE FACTORS BECOME BETTER-FOCUSED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 and one other random thought...to Ian...I don't think people are "way overboard" over this system on this forum anyway...I think they have been discussing it. It has been so long since we've had anything to discuss, I don't see where any of the discussion here has gone over to anything other than normal talk of a potentially interesting weather day. I do have a little perspective on severe weather from my years growing up in Ohio and then living in western TN. Days like this were a dime a dozen when I was in Memphis from 1998 - 2009, but it still is interesting weather for over this way, even under a slight risk of tornado dome, even if parameters are not perfect. And, obviously, given this part of the country, its hard to get parameters ever totally perfect. Nevertheless, I have found the discussion of whatever we get today, including our likely low cloud deck bust to be appropriate, given the modeling of something that might be more. In any event, continued good luck to you guys on your current chase... ETA: was referencing this post, Ian: I would love to be there for a good threat and it looks like the best in a while... I just think the area or perhaps the northeast as a whole tends to go way overboard with this stuff. I might be totally wrong but the day just does not seem as amazingly incredible as a lot of people see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Well we'll be headed to Cockeysville, MD tomorrow. Leaving around 7:30 AM so we should be there around 2 PM or so. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 you would fit in well at the philly forum are you any good at whining over near misses? I'm guessing the weenie tags didn't give it away that i was mocking weenies Your right, I deleted it. Sorry bout that. I appreciate you sticking up for us MAers LWX language makes me pretty confident at least one EF-4 will hit the area. Perhaps a half dozen. There are 26 thes in the discussion which correlates heavily to strong rotating updrafts. BRING IT! Is there any McDonalds around Hereford? Thinking about starting in that area, but the closest one I see is in Cockeysville. Figuring 83 is right there, if we need to get up into PA fast, and possibly west on 70 if need be. Thoughts? Come visit me!!! Well we'll be headed to Cockeysville, MD tomorrow. Leaving around 7:30 AM so we should be there around 2 PM or so. Good man! Let me know where you end up in CVille Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Also - nice sunshine at my place in Cockeysville this morning, I've also got red skies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Also - nice sunshine at my place in Cockeysville this morning, I've also got red skies! Oh Christ, I'm gonna be near both you and Fozz? lol We're meeting at the McDonalds around 2ish, he can get data there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Hint of a sunrise here but mainly overcast with a couple sprinkles. How quickly it moves out, clears off will be what I watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 07z HRRR has two rounds showing up. One at 1-2 pm and then around 6-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I'll be at the McDonalds in Cockeysvile. Sunshine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Also with the talk of a possible upgrade to mod risk... 15% tor is mod risk and 45% wind is mod risk... so we shall see if we do get a mod risk which one is being raised to higher probs If they do decide to go with MDT, I doubt they will bump the tornado risk any higher. I was already surprised at the 10% probs this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Looking at satellite there certainly are clouds around but appears to have a good amount of breaks and hopefully the sun can help to burn some more off as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Light rain here. Still and humid. 68.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Overcast with just a few breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I'll be at the McDonalds in Cockeysvile. Sunshine Have fun and be safe. I'll be out chasing as well. Probably either HGR or FDK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Oh Christ, I'm gonna be near both you and Fozz? lol We're meeting at the McDonalds around 2ish, he can get data there. Yes - but its me You going to the same McDonald's Wiz is? I'll be at the McDonalds in Cockeysvile. Sunshine Sweet!! The one north on York Road near Shawan Road? Looking at satellite there certainly are clouds around but appears to have a good amount of breaks and hopefully the sun can help to burn some more off as well. I'm at work now in the city and its overcast, but there were breaks of clouds up north in Cockeysville where the sun was shining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Thundershowers and plain heavy downpours moved in last night after midnight. I could hear the rain pounding on the roof at times. 0.88" since midnight. We needed a good soaking. The last half of May was fairly dry in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Yes - but its me You going to the same McDonald's Wiz is? Sweet!! The one north on York Road near Shawan Road? I'm at work now in the city and its overcast, but there were breaks of clouds up north in Cockeysville where the sun was shining Yup, we're meeting there, and figuring out the gameplan from there. I just know we gotta be away from BWI in general once the rush hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 If i didn't have so much to do this afternoon, i'd meet y'all at McD for the storm party, wouldn't take me long to come down 83. And these storms might have impact on our tourney for Saturday which is near Williamsport Md.. Have fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Yup, we're meeting there, and figuring out the gameplan from there. I just know we gotta be away from BWI in general once the rush hits. Good stuff - you will be far enough from BWI in Cockeysville. The hubby and I are planning on heading over to his office this evening to watch the storms from there, its got a nice view west while our residence does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Yup, we're meeting there, and figuring out the gameplan from there. I just know we gotta be away from BWI in general once the rush hits. Should have told me! I would have went! You gonna be on radar scope chasers location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Going to the McDOnalds on Cranbrook Rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Going to the McDOnalds on Cranbrook Rd Ah ok - sounds good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 WTOP mobile headline: "Rain, Tornadoes during Friday Commute." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2012 Author Share Posted June 1, 2012 WTOP mobile headline: "Rain, Tornadoes during Friday Commute." ...wow - talk about a hyped up headline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 The RAP develops about 1000-1500 J/KG of SBcape a bit later on across MD...MLcape values are only around 500 J/KG or so though, I would guess the weak mlvl lapse rates are hurting this a bit. mlvl lapse rates right now are only 5.5 C/KM which is pretty blah...models had them around 6 C/KM so we'll see if they steepen a bit...they could as the trough approaches and some cooler air advects aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 WTOP mobile headline: "Rain, Tornadoes during Friday Commute." . LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 WTOP mobile headline: "Rain, Tornadoes during Friday Commute." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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