NOVAForecaster Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Oh, I so cannot wait to chase tomorrow... This is going to be good! LWX recent discussion: ONCE THE WARM FRONT IS THROUGH...CWA WILL BE WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. 12Z NAM/GFS POSITION THE FRONT OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL OHIO AT 12Z FRIDAY WITH 999/1000 MB LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF CLEVELAND. TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD. FAVORABLE SEVERE PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. FORECAST SBCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE PLENTY TO TRIGGER STORMS...AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. HELICITY ON DULLES AIRPORT NAM SOUNDING APPROACHES 200 M2/S2 BY 21Z. SPC MAINTAINS SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2012 Author Share Posted June 1, 2012 Hilarious when someone goes to another forum to trash the PHL forum, when pretty much all you add to our forum is whining when you get missed. Especially when there has been a lot of good discussion the last couple of days. Don't you have some glue to sniff? On top of it, you were completely wrong about a tornado threat around here, it was in New England, lol. But I won't muck up the MA forum anymore, just had to say it. Meh...try to keep this out of our forum/thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Meh...try to keep this out of our forum/thread Your right, I deleted it. Sorry bout that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Looks like 00z NAM is trying for go time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 LWX language makes me pretty confident at least one EF-4 will hit the area. Perhaps a half dozen. There are 26 thes in the discussion which correlates heavily to strong rotating updrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 LWX language makes me pretty confident at least one EF-4 will hit the area. Perhaps a half dozen. There are 26 thes in the discussion which correlates heavily to strong rotating updrafts. Obvious Troll is Obvious... and perhaps slightly jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Obvious Troll is Obvious... and perhaps slightly jealous. I was kinda just mocking yodas overanalysis of wording. I won't even touch the jealous part since you probably have some clue what ive seen stormwise in the past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I was kinda just mocking yodas overanalysis of wording. I won't even touch the jealous part since you probably have some clue what ive seen stormwise in the past week. Meh BTW, I see CWG went Storm Threat Level 3 for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Is there any McDonalds around Hereford? Thinking about starting in that area, but the closest one I see is in Cockeysville. Figuring 83 is right there, if we need to get up into PA fast, and possibly west on 70 if need be. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Meh BTW, I see CWG went Storm Threat Level 3 for tomorrow It's a borderline 3... high 2 or low 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Not really sure what to really think of the 0z NAM. I really wish it would have shown a boost in the instability, however, models always tend to have trouble with clouds/sunshine in these types of setups and you never really know until the AM when you can watch satellite trends and such. Anyways there is a lot of good and then there is not alot of good. The NAM and the SREF continue to indicate a deepening sfc low with a deepening trough approaching from the west overspreading the region with some very solid height falls. As the afternoon goes on winds at 925/850/700mb really begins to increase with a great deal of directional shear as well so 0-1km and 0-3km helicity will be incredibly high. 500mb winds seem to be rather meh (still decent) but I don't understand why the NAM is weakening them somewhat as the trough approaches...this tends to lead to 0-6km shear values which are alright. 250mb winds look very solid and does place the region in the RFQ of the ULJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Meh Ugh. What happened to our region? 9 pages before even the day-of? I could see that happening for 1/2" of snow to ZR, then 1" of rain washing everthing away so you wake up to bare ground, but for severe, 9 pgs is pretty ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Meh BTW, I see CWG went Storm Threat Level 3 for tomorrow I would love to be there for a good threat and it looks like the best in a while... I just think the area or perhaps the northeast as a whole tends to go way overboard with this stuff. I might be totally wrong but the day just does not seem as amazingly incredible as a lot of people see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 LWX language makes me pretty confident at least one EF-4 will hit the area. Perhaps a half dozen. There are 26 thes in the discussion which correlates heavily to strong rotating updrafts. There probably will be half a dozen EF-4s in the area next 150 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I would love to be there for a good threat and it looks like the best in a while... I just think the area or perhaps the northeast as a whole tends to go way overboard with this stuff. I might be totally wrong but the day just does not seem as amazingly incredible as a lot of people see it. I dont think its going to be all like June 2008 again... but its something that will likely be better than our run of the mill type severe weather we see around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Tomorrow, the 500mb winds in the Mid-Atlantic area will be 30-40 knots, and the 300mb winds will be 50-55 knots. 0-6km shear should be 30-40 knots for most of the area. CAPE will be 1000-2500 J/kg in most of the Mid-Atlantic up to Washington DC. Washington should be at the north end of the higher CAPE. Storm Relative helicity should be up around 100 m2/s2 for a good bit of the area, perhaps 100-300 north of Washington. I think the forcing might be too strong, leading to a dominant squall line instead of a lot of supercells. The SPC may indicate a moderate risk for wind damage from PA/MD border to the SC/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I dont think its going to be all like June 2008 again... but its something that will likely be better than our run of the mill type severe weather we see around here The pattern is nothing like June 2008 so I agree it won't be like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I would love to be there for a good threat and it looks like the best in a while... I just think the area or perhaps the northeast as a whole tends to go way overboard with this stuff. I might be totally wrong but the day just does not seem as amazingly incredible as a lot of people see it. Totally agreed- We can cash in on major winter storms and that's just about it. Max for us in a generation for hurricane left-overs was Isabel. Tornado was La Plata, but that didn't happen as part of a major outbreak-- maybe Ivan spiral bands came closest to an area-wide outbreak. Reference 6/08. but still many locations didn't experience anything severe. I saw 40-45 mph gusts and heavy rain during the line this past Sunday.. then I drove in heavy rain and some 35 mph gusts last night. In any given year, that's about as exciting weather as I will see in week. What is everyone's expectations, and if it's now more than what I saw on Sunday, what exactly are you hoping to see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Tomorrow, the 500mb winds in the Mid-Atlantic area will be 30-40 knots, and the 300mb winds will be 50-55 knots. 0-6km shear should be 30-40 knots for most of the area. CAPE will be 1000-2500 J/kg in most of the Mid-Atlantic up to Washington DC. Washington should be at the north end of the higher CAPE. Storm Relative helicity should be up around 100 m2/s2 for a good bit of the area, perhaps 100-300 north of Washington. I think the forcing might be too strong, leading to a dominant squall line instead of a lot of supercells. The SPC may indicate a moderate risk for wind damage from PA/MD border to the SC/NC border. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Totally agreed- We can cash in on major winter storms and that's just about it. Max for us in a generation for hurricane left-overs was Isabel. Tornado was La Plata, but that didn't happen as part of a major outbreak-- maybe Ivan spiral bands came closest to an area-wide outbreak. Reference 6/08. but still many locations didn't experience anything severe. I saw 40-45 mph gusts and heavy rain during the line this past Sunday.. then I drove in heavy rain and some 35 mph gusts last night. In any given year, that's about as exciting weather as I will see in week. What is everyone's expectations, and if it's now more than what I saw on Sunday, what exactly are you hoping to see? It's all very scare based these days. Maybe it's always been that way but at least since I've been watching it, seems moreso in the past few years. We just happen to live in an area where it's very hard to get a setup that produces a major outbreak or something. It's looked like primarily a wind threat.. and I would not be surprised if there was no mod risk as that seems conditional. However, it is the 95 corridor and SPC probably is pressured like anyone else to be extra cautious due to the population. I'm sure if I'm wrong I'll be forced to eat my words here afterwards.. but if the reverse probably not so much for others as "something went wrong to avert a much worse situation." But yeah, even in a worst case scenario it's highly likely that a vast majority won't see true severe conditions and I'm not sure that's something that is accurately conveyed anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I hate how moist the mid-levels are and how the Cape profiles are so skinny. Unless we can see sufficient destabilization like past runs were showing I'm really afraid this could be more of an isolated severe event with heavy rain/flash flooding the more predominant threat. I mean the helicity/shear are nice but you need sufficient updraft support so the shear doesn't overpower the updrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 It's all very scare based these days. Maybe it's always been that way but at least since I've been watching it, seems moreso in the past few years. We just happen to live in an area where it's very hard to get a setup that produces a major outbreak or something. It's looked like primarily a wind threat.. and I would not be surprised if there was no mod risk as that seems conditional. However, it is the 95 corridor and SPC probably is pressured like anyone else to be extra cautious due to the population. I'm sure if I'm wrong I'll be forced to eat my words here afterwards.. but if the reverse probably not so much for others as "something went wrong to avert a much worse situation." But yeah, even in a worst case scenario it's highly likely that a vast majority won't see true severe conditions and I'm not sure that's something that is accurately conveyed anywhere. Right, and that's what's amusing about the 6/08 outbreak referenced as if it were some sort of ultimate event. 7/10 was worse across *specific* local areas, as 6/08 was worse in others towns. Most likely for anyone in this area, the "worst" thunderstorm event they ever experience would be from anything other than a region-wide outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Right, and that's what's amusing about the 6/08 outbreak referenced as if it were some sort of ultimate event. 7/10 was worse across *specific* local areas, as 6/08 was worse in others towns. Most likely for anyone in this area, the "worst" thunderstorm event they ever experience would be from anything other than a region-wide outbreak. Tell me about It, 7/7/11, I had 70-80mph localized winds, trees were sheared apart, roofs blown off an apartment complex down the street. That day: a see text risk 5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Is there more wind in all these posts than what will be realized tomorrow? Seeing at least 1 violent storm in the region with a tornado! That is enough for alarm! I think that will happen. I think Along or east of 95 or in SW VA. Highs winds and heavy rains,.. most likely for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 NAM says plenty of cloud cover. Not suprising with east wind at the suraface. This is why I Like Southwest to West curving hodos a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Right, and that's what's amusing about the 6/08 outbreak referenced as if it were some sort of ultimate event. 7/10 was worse across *specific* local areas, as 6/08 was worse in others towns. Most likely for anyone in this area, the "worst" thunderstorm event they ever experience would be from anything other than a region-wide outbreak. I think the one thing about 6/08 was simply the fact that there were multiple rounds of severe storms which in itself is pretty uncommon for the area of course. But otherwise I'd tend to agree that a lot of the really powerful events have been fairly localized. Sometimes it's fun to frenzy just to frenzy.. keeps everyone interested. From a pure pattern perspective tomorrow remains really messy -- it has some of the look but it's just not coming together right. I'd be surprised if it reached any of the highest end potential discussed at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 NAM says plenty of cloud cover. Not suprising with east wind at the suraface. This is why I Like Southwest to West curving hodos a lot better. Kinda hard then to get LL Lapse rates of 8.0-9.0 C/KM then as the NAM says there will be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 0600Z Day 1: 15 hail 30 wind 10 tor And its a pretty good sized 10 tor contour too Great disco as well.. mentions possible upgrade later today as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 That was a FANTASTIC discussion by the SPC...one of the best ones I've ever read with incredible detail highlighting just about everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Well we'll be headed to Cockeysville, MD tomorrow. Leaving around 7:30 AM so we should be there around 2 PM or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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