Disc Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Here is the RNK afternoon discussion. Probably doesn't apply to the majority of the people here since most of you are from northern VA and MD, but I'll post anyway if there are any lurkers from my area. They sound quite confident for something good down here in my neck of the woods. THE REGION WILL BE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DISCREET SUPERCELL SHOULD MORPH INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARILY THREAT. HELICITIES MODERATE ENOUGH IN THE EAST TO NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF THE WARM FRONT STALLS NEAR THE AREA. MODEL FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE ALSO IMPRESSIVE. GOOD INSOLATION WHILE IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP DESTABILIZATION THE ATMOSPHERE WITH CAPES INCREASING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK WITH MENTION OF UPGRADING TO MODERATE OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS HIGHLY LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Here's one from Mark/Ellinwood: http://madusweather....cs/#comment-985 thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Usually I see those high thin cirrus clouds the night before a warm front moves in. This evening, however, it's a robin's egg blue sky...interesting to experience this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 If I were back east I'd likely be chasing in NC or southeastern VA for the tornado threat... secondary target of south-central PA. Have fun with the storms tomorrow! Wish this system would have come along while I was home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 If I were back east I'd likely be chasing in NC or southeastern VA for the tornado threat... secondary target of south-central PA. Have fun with the storms tomorrow! Wish this system would have come along while I was home. dont be selfish with the storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 dont be selfish with the storms Notice how he avoids our area entirely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Notice how he avoids our area entirely Exactly Yoder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Notice how he avoids our area entirely Get a better looking sounding and we'll talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 Get a better looking sounding and we'll talk. Nothing is ever perfect around here! You should know that gotta take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I'll be working in HGR tomorrow, if a cell comes near I'll chase it. However LVL easterlies to keep the storms elevated north of the MD PA border. Best threat NW VA. Still not far from HGR though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Mark is a severe snob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Mark is a severe snob He is just jealous. You know if he was here he wouldn't even look at a sounding and still hype up this threat. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Mark is a severe snob Indeed, he is just jealous it will be more severe here than where he is tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 So who is staying up besides me for the 0600 SPC Day 1? Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 So who is staying up besides me for the 0600 SPC Day 1? Anyone? If it's published at 06z, I'll still be up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 So who is staying up besides me for the 0600 SPC Day 1? Anyone? Not I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2012 Author Share Posted June 1, 2012 So who is staying up besides me for the 0600 SPC Day 1? Anyone? Work at 8:30 tomorrow so not for me this time. Besides...whenever I stay up for it we get shafted by SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 [weenie]current radar doesn't match the NAM sim radar! Front looks further east than modeled![\weenie] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 [weenie]current radar doesn't match the NAM sim radar! Front looks further east than modeled![\weenie] NAM is about right, the GFS is the one behind, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 NAM is about right, the GFS is the one behind, I think. My weenie eyes see different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 My weenie eyes see different Well good, you probably have better weenie eyes then I do, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 NAM also keeps the whole thing together and drags the mess across the overnight into the threat area tomorrow. Looks like linear activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 NAM also keeps the whole thing together and drags the mess across the overnight into the threat area tomorrow. Looks like linear activity. 4km NAM from PSU says otherwise. It has some discret cells prior to the main line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Not quite sure if its just a line or a line of embedded supercells (the storms in W VA... not West Virginia) and thats as far out as this run goes so we can only surmise what it will look like... but figures like 7pm DC arrival Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Nothing really new in LWX's night time update to their AFD... 00z NAM should be out in a few to see where we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 [weenie]current radar doesn't match the NAM sim radar! Front looks further east than modeled![\weenie] you would fit in well at the philly forum are you any good at whining over near misses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 "Some thunderstorms may be severe" wording put into the zones for the 930 update... usually they wait till the 330AM update... interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 you would fit in well at the philly forum are you any good at whining over near misses? Don't discredit our forum over a few weenies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2012 Author Share Posted June 1, 2012 "Some thunderstorms may be severe" wording put into the zones for the 930 update... usually they wait till the 330AM update... interesting I don't know if that suggests anything other than higher confidence than normal in at lease SOME severe. Not sure it hints at intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I don't know if that suggests anything other than higher confidence than normal in at lease SOME severe. Not sure it hints at intensity. I agree with that... just usually I dont think we see that wording the day before very much... unless as you said that LWX feels that we have a good chance at severe storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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