LocoAko Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 Well that was a fail. A big, fat fail. Won't even bother telling you all the areas we drove through today and all the failed cumulus towers we saw. lol. Going to have a down day tomorrow before beginning the big trek north up to Montana and the Dakotas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Well that was a fail. A big, fat fail. Won't even bother telling you all the areas we drove through today and all the failed cumulus towers we saw. lol. Going to have a down day tomorrow before beginning the big trek north up to Montana and the Dakotas. Not having any shear sucks. We watched two nice cells evaporate. At least the second lasted a while. Looks like a potentially solid event this weekend at least. The northern plains is great.. You'll like it up there. Wish we were staying longer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 5, 2012 Author Share Posted June 5, 2012 Made it to Burlington, CO for the night. I'm liking tomorrow's threat. Winds aloft are pretty weak but dire tional shear is great and instability is sufficient. It will be nice to see a supercell at least since we haven't yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Made it to Burlington, CO for the night. I'm liking tomorrow's threat. Winds aloft are pretty weak but dire tional shear is great and instability is sufficient. It will be nice to see a supercell at least since we haven't yet I like tomorrow's setup from CYS-DEN and east about 75-100 miles from there, and would love to be out if I weren't so busy with school. The Front Range and adjacent CO High Plains is a mysterious area, with many of their best tornado days seemingly coming out of nowhere -- often in cases where deep-layer shear looks iffy. I'm not going to claim the tornado potential is high at this point, but a great chase day materializing wouldn't surprise me in the least. The Goshen Co., WY, day had 35-40 kts. at H5, while the Deer Trail/Last Chance, CO, day had 30-35 kts. Hopefully some CO magic is in store to make up for the crappy past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 6, 2012 Author Share Posted June 6, 2012 I like tomorrow's setup from CYS-DEN and east about 75-100 miles from there, and would love to be out if I weren't so busy with school. The Front Range and adjacent CO High Plains is a mysterious area, with many of their best tornado days seemingly coming out of nowhere -- often in cases where deep-layer shear looks iffy. I'm not going to claim the tornado potential is high at this point, but a great chase day materializing wouldn't surprise me in the least. The Goshen Co., WY, day had 35-40 kts. at H5, while the Deer Trail/Last Chance, CO, day had 30-35 kts. Hopefully some CO magic is in store to make up for the crappy past few days. Thanks for the encouragement. Last I checked both the NAM and GFS had 15 knts from the southwest at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Thanks for the encouragement. Last I checked both the NAM and GFS had 15 knts from the southwest at H5. Yeah, you'll definitely want it to verify a tad more brisk than that. It does appear the consensus forecast is more like 25-30 kts if you're right near the FR along/near the state line, at least. A very slight progressive trend would make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 That boundary evident on the base reflectivity midway between Denver and Limon could serve as the initial focus for convection this afternoon. Don't see any TCU yet but there's definitely a wind shift and a bit of a moisture gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Got this today! Just east of Cheyenne. For many people on our trip, this was our first supercell, so it was quite exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 nice shot. they looked pretty on radar particularly early. we ended up playing the northern target too much when the southern target did better. that would be my random suggestion.. tho it'll probably bust if you do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 Wound up racing north from Raymer, CO yesterday after those cells disappointed up to Pine Bluffs, WY, to intercept our first supercell. It was HP and didn't have the most amazing structure, but it was still great to finally see any sort of rotation! We got a wall cloud out of it and a possible funnel (my group is still debating if it was scud or not - I could swear it was a FC, but I guess we'll never know...). Here are some pics I quickly threw up: The scud/possible funnel that is up for debate. Solid wall cloud, at least, though. HP FTL. Today's threat is a bit harder because of the cloud cover, and we want to be able to somehow race up to MT for the Day 2 threat. We will likely position near Cheyenne or Kimball, NE, once again. The SPC notes a better chance for solid supercells north with perhaps the biggest tornado threat over NECO, but I think we are aiming for structure at this point than trying to catch a landspout. It is a little upsetting that we had to wait until toward the end of our trip to even see a marginal supercell, but we're trying to make the best out of this synoptic pattern. The next few days should hopefully be fruitful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 how long are you out there? i bet you'll get something in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 how long are you out there? i bet you'll get something in the next few days. We will be out here for a few days still, so we will have today, tomorrow in MT, then Saturday and Sunday in the Dakotas/Minnesota before we trek back east. The road network up here in WY and Western NE is less than ideal... Still, this is the first time we've had decent enough shear this entire trip, so it looks promising at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 We will be out here for a few days still, so we will have today, tomorrow in MT, then Saturday and Sunday in the Dakotas/Minnesota before we trek back east. The road network up here in WY and Western NE is less than ideal... Still, this is the first time we've had decent enough shear this entire trip, so it looks promising at least. yeah western nebraska is tougher than some other spots.. have not been to WY. im kinda bummed as i was hoping for the northern plains but oh well. the one good thing about less road network is that you might be more forced to get structure. take mt.. im sure with a better network those guys might have been right up under the storm more and not seen the awesomeness. that ended up happening to us on 5/29 in OK... partly because we played north and had to run south through the line. sat isn't perfect but i still think it'll do something good and the risk almost makes you have to play the southern end unless you want to go to canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Did you see anything good today? Lots of great, slow moving supers today across eastern WY. Basically a chasers dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 We will be out here for a few days still, so we will have today, tomorrow in MT, then Saturday and Sunday in the Dakotas/Minnesota before we trek back east. The road network up here in WY and Western NE is less than ideal... Still, this is the first time we've had decent enough shear this entire trip, so it looks promising at least. Good luck in the Dakotas/MN. Obviously I am biased towards those areas since I am from MN and went to college in North Dakota. North Dakota is awesome chase country since it is wide open and the road networks are surprisingly good. Western Nodak is awesome with the Badlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 Saw my first tornado! We got back really late and may have to be up very early tomorrow so I have no time to look too much into my pictures (which didn't seem to come out that well due to lack of contrast, but we'll see). The tornado was very brief (we were on the southern sup north of Cheyenne, couldn't make it to the Wheatland one in time) and we actually had a gorgeous funnel cloud not associated with the tornado, which was ultimately just swirling debris at the surface, but hey - it still counts! We also saw a downdraft, gorgeous orange-lit mammatus, an incredible amount of lightning, rainbows, etc. And the supercell wound up taking on a psuedo-mothership appearance with different layers present... simply gorgeous. The Wheatland tornado was very photogenic but at least I feel the trip was justified now. We are still debating going to Montana tomorrow although things aren't looking that favorable and it is an 8-hour drive from here in Chadron, NE so we may just use tomorrow to get in place for ND for Day 2. We are all pretty wiped from today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Congrats Jake. I'm happy for you guys that the trip has produced. Stay safe and best of luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Saw my first tornado! We got back really late and may have to be up very early tomorrow so I have no time to look too much into my pictures (which didn't seem to come out that well due to lack of contrast, but we'll see). The tornado was very brief (we were on the southern sup north of Cheyenne, couldn't make it to the Wheatland one in time) and we actually had a gorgeous funnel cloud not associated with the tornado, which was ultimately just swirling debris at the surface, but hey - it still counts! We also saw a downdraft, gorgeous orange-lit mammatus, an incredible amount of lightning, rainbows, etc. And the supercell wound up taking on a psuedo-mothership appearance with different layers present... simply gorgeous. The Wheatland tornado was very photogenic but at least I feel the trip was justified now. We are still debating going to Montana tomorrow although things aren't looking that favorable and it is an 8-hour drive from here in Chadron, NE so we may just use tomorrow to get in place for ND for Day 2. We are all pretty wiped from today. Nice, that is one more than me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Beautiful structure guys. Congrats on the good chase day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 We had a really great chase day on Thursday in southeastern Wyoming. We were originally chasing a supercell which apparently produced a pretty decent-sized tornado but then we got blocked by another supercell which developed right in front of us, so we decided to stop along Interstate 85 about 10 miles north of Cheyenne and watch the storm from there. It developed a nice wall cloud and a beautiful funnel cloud, and it touched down a very brief tornado which we were able to see from the distance. Although it wasn't very photogenic (it's the faint swirl you see at the ground near the center in the second photo), it was the first one I've ever seen! We stayed there for a while and saw some pretty decent rotation, although there was so many scud clouds it was hard to tell what was a funnel cloud/tornado and what wasn't, but apparently a spotter reported that the storm we were watching did produce a tornado which lasted for several minutes. After that in Cheyenne another cell seemed to form right over us which provided a nice lightning show and contrasted beautifully with orange mammatus clouds next to it. Here are some of my best pictures: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Yesterday was unfortunately a bust; a lot of parameters seemed favorable for supercells and even tornadoes (06z models had 0-6 km shear of 40 to as much as 60 knots, 0-1 km shear of 20 knots, helicity of 300, LCL heights of 500-750, CAPE values around 2000, and good moisture with dewpoints in the low 60's) but unfortunately the trough was weak and unable to provide enough upslope flow for the clouds to break through the cap, so there was virtually no convection anywhere near where we were in eastern Montana and western North Dakota. Unfortunately today doesn't look very promising either; the SPC has a slight risk for eastern North Dakota (where we will probably be) as well as northwestern Minnesota and central South Dakota, but it thinks that the cap may prove to be stronger than the models suggest (sound familiar? ) and thinks that models are overdoing low-level moisture and instability. It also only has a 2% tornado probability in the slight risk area. Oh well, I guess we'll just hope for the best and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Well, it's not all about chasing tornadoes, right? Sitting on the side of the highway trying to determine which puffy cumulus is going to be "the best one" is most of the fun! Dodging hailstones and chasing spurious funnels can get tedious. Don't forget to see the country while you're out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 Well, another bust for us yesterday all the way in eastern Montana, and the SPC Outlook doesn't look all that favorable today despite the hype for days since it trended so far north, though I admittedly haven't looked at much data yet. We juat cant catch a break iit seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Well, another bust for us yesterday all the way in eastern Montana, and the SPC Outlook doesn't look all that favorable today despite the hype for days since it trended so far north, though I admittedly haven't looked at much data yet. We juat cant catch a break iit seems. you guys saw a tornado and at least a few nice storms.. that's fairly successful. even the guys who only chase great setups have said you get a tornado like once in every 4-7 chases (though im sure some here have better records). thought today would get more than a 2% but i guess it's iffy south of the border. at least you'll have lot of ops in the future. caravaning is fun im sure but it's not exactly versatile when it comes to making changes on the fly etc i'd assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 10, 2012 Author Share Posted June 10, 2012 you guys saw a tornado and at least a few nice storms.. that's fairly successful. even the guys who only chase great setups have said you get a tornado like once in every 4-7 chases (though im sure some here have better records). thought today would get more than a 2% but i guess it's iffy south of the border. at least you'll have lot of ops in the future. caravaning is fun im sure but it's not exactly versatile when it comes to making changes on the fly etc i'd assume. That's true, I guess. I've seen awesome mammatus, sunsets, etc. To be honest though driving around for two weeks straight and only seeing ONE bonafide supercell is a bit frustrating (with an associated one funnel cloud for the trip). We saw one other HP sup briefly with very limited structure and thats about it as last night's storms lacked structure and flew into Canada. I dont think my group has made bad decisions and I think we have made the best of a really crappy synoptic pattern despite multiple bust days... Just wasnt an amazing chase yyear overall. I'm falling in love with chasing but I think doing it for 2 weeks straight iis what is driving me nuts - Ill need to do this on a single day-to-day basis in the future. Not having my own bed, staying in a different hotel every night and eating nothing but fast food 3 meals a day is really beginning to wear on me. I believe we will try to chase today (our last chase day) in souther MN, though we are not sure where yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 That's true, I guess. I've seen awesome mammatus, sunsets, etc. To be honest though driving around for two weeks straight and only seeing ONE bonafide supercell is a bit frustrating (with an associated one funnel cloud for the trip). We saw one other HP sup briefly with very limited structure and thats about it as last night's storms lacked structure and flew into Canada. I dont think my group has made bad decisions and I think we have made the best of a really crappy synoptic pattern despite multiple bust days... Just wasnt an amazing chase yyear overall. I'm falling in love with chasing but I think doing it for 2 weeks straight iis what is driving me nuts - Ill need to do this on a single day-to-day basis in the future. Not having my own bed, staying in a different hotel every night and eating nothing but fast food 3 meals a day is really beginning to wear on me. I believe we will try to chase today (our last chase day) in souther MN, though we are not sure where yet. Yeah it gets tiring. I wanted to stay out more than the others thru the week I think but had no major argument not to go home by the time we did. I guess getting a really good day early on helped quite a bit. Though, at this point I think I have to come to like whatever storms we get knowing a 10-14 day period is not a time to be that choosy. Both years we've timed with the general peak and both were subpar as far as overall activity goes. One week is too short most likely unless you time it, and two weeks might be too long if you're going everyday. I suppose the few who can spend longer out there and don't go after everything might be closest to those who live in the region. For sure it'll be nice for you to be able to pick and choose the events to increase your odds... I'm just keeping fingers crossed that we're "due" to run into a monster pattern one of these times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 That's true, I guess. I've seen awesome mammatus, sunsets, etc. To be honest though driving around for two weeks straight and only seeing ONE bonafide supercell is a bit frustrating (with an associated one funnel cloud for the trip). We saw one other HP sup briefly with very limited structure and thats about it as last night's storms lacked structure and flew into Canada. I dont think my group has made bad decisions and I think we have made the best of a really crappy synoptic pattern despite multiple bust days... Just wasnt an amazing chase yyear overall. I'm falling in love with chasing but I think doing it for 2 weeks straight iis what is driving me nuts - Ill need to do this on a single day-to-day basis in the future. Not having my own bed, staying in a different hotel every night and eating nothing but fast food 3 meals a day is really beginning to wear on me. I believe we will try to chase today (our last chase day) in souther MN, though we are not sure where yet. I completely understand your sentiment, and I personally do not have the desire to pay large sums of money to chase the plains on long chasecations. And I love plains weather, but driving daily across the plains to chase thunderstorms doesn't appeal to me for all the reasons you mentioned above. I have driven that awful stretch of I-35 from MN to KS/OK way too many times for various reasons. It is mind numbingly boring; although I can't stand to drive more than a couple of hours at a time, forget a two week driving chasecation. I would rather spend the money on a guaranteed success...a trip to the mtns, for instance. It may very well be that growing up in the plains has also made me immune to the wide open expanse that east coasters tend to love about the plains. But once again, I can find that solitude in the mtns...and with much prettier scenery and a lot more to do. That said, I envy the folks who can do it and find continual success, i.e., Brett and the other talented chasers on here. It really is no surprise the most successful chasers are the ones who put in the most effort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 18, 2012 Author Share Posted July 18, 2012 Our group has been getting quite a lot of unexpected media attention (I'm still not sure why to be honest, as other schools do similar trips ). We actually made the AMS News email this morning! Pretty exciting stuff. http://www.courierpostonline.com/article/20120716/NEWS01/307160018/Tornado-Alley-trip-prepares-Rutgers-students-careers-meteorology We also visited the ARM site in Ponca City, OK, who had an article about us -- this was especially cool since I used the Southern Great Plains ARM site for my senior thesis this past year. http://www.arm.gov/news/facility/post/18272 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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