LocoAko Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Hey all! At BI's suggestion I decided to make a thread for my chasecation starting early tomorrow so I don't clog up Ian's or the general disco thread. I'm headed out with 14 other current and former Rutgers students on a chasecation (first time this is being done for us). I'm not sure what my service will be like, but I'll try to check in here and update whenever possible. It will be a little bit different than other chasecation threads, since, because this is technically a course, we have various forecasting teams so I won't always be in control. That should add an interesting element to it all. Dsnowx53- from the NYC subforum will be with me as well. Wish us luck! Our first temporary target is eastern Arkansas. We know this isn't ideal chase territory, but the medium-range wasn't looking so good so we're going with what we can get before liking shooting off to the Northern Plains toward the weekend. Shear is not so hot there, so we're not expecting anything but multicellular convection, but we're hoping it is enough to at least give us East Coasters a light show or something. Also, I figured this would serve as a good introduction thread since I've been posting for years in the NYC subforum but will be moving to Norman in August to begin graduate school at OU. I am so excited to become a permanent CW subforum poster and take part in these threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Good luck and safe travels, Jake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Pinned, and good luck. Glad to have you in the plains, you won't miss EC weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Hi Jake! I'm hoping that although we aren't always in control per se that we'll still be able to have some input/say. I'm sure the others will take our opinions seriously. Fortunately enough, Jake and I were placed on the same forecasting team! The SPC does mention potential for the High Plains in the weekend and early next week. It's a very different pattern from current...it looks more zonal with fast moving disturbances and vorts traversing the Canadian border. Hopefully the "event" on Thursday overperforms. It looks like there are favorable ingredients, but not all in one place. I'm kinda hoping the models will trend a bit north so we can move the warm sector a bit north, providing instability for the areas that actually have the shear. As of now it looks like the very unstable areas won't have the shear, and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 good luck jake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Where are you going to be in Ark today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 We're aiming to be somewhere between Little Rock and Memphis tomorrow. SPC used the T word in their disco, though that obviously won't be the main threat. I'm hoping the northern portion of the risk area can maybe get a few isolated ones. Does anyone have any advice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Good luck and safe travels! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I like the 12z GFS. The trough looks to be in a decent position and further north than yesterday's runs. We have a nice area of vorticity sliding underneath the trough, as well as some 50 knot winds out of the SW at 500mb, so good speed shear at the mid-levels. This could bode well for trying to squeeze some instability into the sheared area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I've never chased, so just amateur advice, but I'd get South of the Arbuckles and chase the Southernmost storms. GFS and NAM both like Southern edge igniting at 7 pm CDT near the Red River, both had good EHIs, GFS EHI is *very* good. GFS and NAM both have mega-fat CAPE curve (TTs over 60) in area of good speed and directional shear, so impressive hail looks to be on the menu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 Still not entirely sure where our target will be tomorrow - that will be decided by the forecast team in the morning. Currently residing in Shelbyville, KY. I am personally leaning toward a very small area in central southern IL, but we shall see. Certainly not ideal with the best shear well displaced from the best instability, but I'm hoping there will be a narrow axis where they will coincide well enough to get some good stuff going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 the good thing is now that you're out you can spend less time dwelling on long range forecasts. one thing that has happened for us at least is that a number of threats have emerged in the shorter range that were not extremely apparent from more than a day or two out... kansas last week being one of those days. i would think you all will run into at least a handful of good threats given the length of time you'll be out. it doesn't take much in june usually to get at least a tornado or two if not a major outbreak. good luck tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 Initial target area is Madisonville, KY. Obviously not the best setup but we are trying what we can before getting to the Plains. Madisonville has at least some clearings and sets us up to move north to get closer to the triple point if need be while staying south of the OH river. Expectations are quite low for today, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 It may be a bit of a haul for you guys, but I suspect the TX/OK Panhandle into SE CO/SW KS may provide some excitement the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 It may be a bit of a haul for you guys, but I suspect the TX/OK Panhandle into SE CO/SW KS may provide some excitement the next couple of days. Thanks! We won't get there by tomorrow, but I believe we aare staying in Paducah tonight and then hauling west tomorrow to hopefully reach that area by Saturday afteroon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Good luck Jake!! Get some good experience now, because you know we're chasing everyday next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Warm front sharpening up in western Kentucky with a good surge of sfc moisture finally arriving in that area. Dews are at 60+ in West KY. Slightly veered winds in Tenn are still backed just south of the Ohio River in KY. Vis imagery confirms the boundary where the winds shift; just a little more CU there. Madisonville to Henderson corridor looks good to me, adjusting for how far the WF lifts. Terrain not too bad for KY standards over toward Morganfield too. Hope you can find something early in the chasecation (of course not in town). Takes the pressure off a bit. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 Warm front sharpening up in western Kentucky with a good surge of sfc moisture finally arriving in that area. Dews are at 60+ in West KY. Slightly veered winds in Tenn are still backed just south of the Ohio River in KY. Vis imagery confirms the boundary where the winds shift; just a little more CU there. Madisonville to Henderson corridor looks good to me, adjusting for how far the WF lifts. Terrain not too bad for KY standards over toward Morganfield too. Hope you can find something early in the chasecation (of course not in town). Takes the pressure off a bit. Good luck! Thanks for the tips! We actually got permission to go to the grassy fields at the local airport for viewing. Measured 87/65 here in Madisonville. Still keeping expectations low but figure we are in the best place we could do for the area so we are going with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 good luck guys! stay safe and have an awesome time!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Have fun! You're getting off to a nice start today, checking off a state that most can't claim they've ever attempted. Looks like a lot of central/northern High Plains ops next week, which is great, cause it's gorgeous country where even crappy storms look sweet... and good storms look incredible. Maybe see ya out there if anything presents itself a bit closer to home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 T/Td spreads are kinda high for my liking right now in the OV. Would like to see those come down some to realize a better tor threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 1, 2012 Author Share Posted June 1, 2012 Well, today was interesting. We obviously didn't see any tornadoes but wound up getting caught in some fairly nasty thunderstorms in western Kentucky. We wound up blowing out a tire while racing toward a storm which led to an adventure of its own as we found people to help change the tire. Not sure of our destination for tomorrow but we know we will be driving west the entire day from our hotel in Paducah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 So we're headed towards Norman, Oklahoma to settle down for the night. Today's drive was really nice. I drove through a lot of Missouri today, and it was very relaxing being behind the wheel. Seeing empty fields and country side is great! We also got dinner in Joplin. That was very humbling. You can obviously tell what happened a year ago, but they've done a tremendous job rebuilding. We're planning on going to the Texas Panhandle tomorrow, as of now. There are several favorable factors, but the 500mb winds are way too weak for my liking. The SWEAT and 0-3km SRH look pretty good, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 We also got dinner in Joplin. That was very humbling. You can obviously tell what happened a year ago, but they've done a tremendous job rebuilding. Did you cruise the entire tornado area or just stay near Rangeline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 2, 2012 Author Share Posted June 2, 2012 Did you cruise the entire tornado area or just stay near Rangeline? We just stayed near Rangeline. I'm not entirely sure of where we were, but we at at Wendy's and I remember seeing a sign for 20th street not too far. It was a very sobering sight to see, although quite optimistic since I was shocked to see how much had been rebuilt so quickly (though I did not see residential areas, only the shops/businesses). All of the new construction looks fabulous. Still, seeing the twisted trees and empty lots was sad. (Doug and I discussed waving to you today! ) Not entirely sure where we are headed tomorrow, though I like the eastern TX panhandle. LCL heights are quite high (though lower on the GFS than the NAM), so I'm not really expecting too much of a tornado threat, but I'm hoping for at least an isolated supercell that can provide some nice structure. Shear is very marginal (only 35-40 kts) and upper level winds are pitiful, with the 00Z GFS only have 10 kts at 500 hPa, but there are some decent 0-3km SRH values being forecasted along the theta-e ridge with some pretty substantial CAPE. I'll have to see what tomorrow's forecast team thinks tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 We just stayed near Rangeline. I'm not entirely sure of where we were, but we at at Wendy's and I remember seeing a sign for 20th street not too far. It was a very sobering sight to see, although quite optimistic since I was shocked to see how much had been rebuilt so quickly (though I did not see residential areas, only the shops/businesses). All of the new construction looks fabulous. Still, seeing the twisted trees and empty lots was sad. (Doug and I discussed waving to you today! ) Rangeline is pretty much rebuilt back, you should have headed west, just stayed in between the areas that had trees and you wouldn't get lost, heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 2, 2012 Author Share Posted June 2, 2012 Forecast team decided to bring us just north of Amarillo for dryline initiation. Hoping for a beautiful high-based (LCLs near 3000 m!) Isolated supercell and that we can overcome the awful upper level winds. Here goes nothing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 If you visit the Cadillac Ranch you might find a message I left there last Saturday about how lame Beryl was. I'd appreciate if you correct "sux" to "was pretty cool" for me! e: FYI - the Love's gas station at the nearest freeway exit no longer sells spray paint. You can buy some at any hardware store (Home Depot is at exit 67) or usually find half-empty cans laying around the ranch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 This was taken near Stinnett, TX, at around 8pm CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 We're leaning right towards heading toward very SE Kansas where we hope the warm front can be enough of a lifting mechanism to generate supercells and tornadoes. We have the CAPE, shear, and moisture (on the NAM at least) so hopefully it works out! For whatever reason, the models aren't really firing too much despite very favorable parameters. Perhaps the warm front isn't lifting the parcels enough, or the lingering MCS/MCV will cause problems. But once that moves out, the CAP should erode quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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