Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread II

[weatherwiz]

Nevermind...we're going 5-10 miles NE.

[Tropopause_Fold]

very cool day to be RADAR watching...all sorts of neat things going on all over NYS/VT/NH

[Chrisrotary12]

The visible satellite loop shows the flow at the different levels of the atmosphere perfectly. You can see the low level clouds moving almost due north. but at the same time, the anvils of the thunderstorms are being blown to the ESE, pretty cool actually to see it so clear.

[ct_yankee]

I really doubt this 'stabilizing influence' will have any more than a minuscule impact on the line that will and has always been progged to move through hours from now. The damage has already been done and the instability is still in the atmosphere. This isn't a fog bank dropping Logan down 30F in an hour in July.

I hope you're right, but I've seen some really ferocious looking squall lines get stopped cold by the marine layer. One minute they're maxing out the radar upstate, spitting out micro/macrobursts right and left, then when the line actually gets to New Haven we get a few sprinkles and a cool breeze. Sometimes the outflow will be way out ahead of the line and the OFB passage is more exiting than the actual cells. Some do make it through, usually way elevated, but never underestimate the dark powers of the marine layer.

[Typhoon Tip]

I was just looking at radar base reflectivity over SE Mass and the boundary shows up really clearly. Then I noticed that it was starting to edge N in the last 20 minutes.

So I checked PVDs obs. Look what happened when it edged N of them:

291951 FEW250 10 87 68 2013G20 069

291851 FEW024 9 79 69 1508 080

291751 FEW020 5 HZ 78 69 1806 095

[OceanStWx]

Flood may become a concern in that southern NH stuff as it is beginning to train up over the lift caused by this BD boundary

Not just southern NH either. There are a lot of flood reports coming out of central and northern VT right now, roughly the same areas that got heavy rain overnight. This would include northern NH.

SPC mesoanalysis is suggesting PWAT values around 1.7" with this convection. I think the GYX threat will be more flash flood related than severe thunderstorm.

[Tropopause_Fold]

is that a hook right near newfane VT?

[moneypitmike]

Have my generator ready in case of an outage. Unforunately, my well-pump just blew out......can't be replaced until tomorrow, FTSSDL (for the sweaty, smelly, dirty loss).

[CoastalWx]

Thanks, Scott.

Do you expect we'll have watches put up in the BOX zones at some point? Nice to see things beginning to pop right on I-87. Those could have the potential to work their way into the BOX CWA--at least the western zones.

It depends, they may issue one that only covers the Berks, but I couldn't say for sure. I don't know how many reports are coming in from NY State right now as I am doing other stuff, but that may factor in too.

[Typhoon Tip]

I really doubt this 'stabilizing influence' will have any more than a minuscule impact on the line that will and has always been progged to move through hours from now. The damage has already been done and the instability is still in the atmosphere. This isn't a fog bank dropping Logan down 30F in an hour in July.

You mean that line that is weakening ?

[CT Rain]

is that a hook right near newfane VT?

Yup and some impressive g2g shear

[CT Rain]

Wow..> Putney VT is in the crosshairs

[CoastalWx]

is that a hook right near newfane VT?

Looks like it.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Wow..> Putney VT is in the crosshairs

yeah...last scan...booom.

[Chrisrotary12]

That new storm that just formed in SE VT really looks to follow same path as one ahead of it. Flash Flooding a real possibility.

[CT Rain]

Windham/Cheshire needs a tornado warning stat

[Damage In Tolland]

I was just looking at radar base reflectivity over SE Mass and the boundary shows up really clearly. Then I noticed that it was starting to edge N in the last 20 minutes.

So I checked PVDs obs. Look what happened when it edged N of them:

291951 FEW250 10 87 68 2013G20 069

291851 FEW024 9 79 69 1508 080

291751 FEW020 5 HZ 78 69 1806 095

AWT

[CT Rain]

Wow that supercell is wild. Easily most impressive of the day.

[ineedsnow]

nice hook on that

Windham/Cheshire needs a tornado warning stat

[TalcottWx]

I wonder if Logan's temps actually rise before the line comes in tonight

[CoastalWx]

Wow that supercell is wild. Easily most impressive of the day.

Look at it turn right too. Spinning like a top..should be warned.

[Tropopause_Fold]

impressive g-to-g shear...seen better on higher tilts out of enx

[OceanStWx]

The warm front is providing some impressive low level helicity for these storms.

The key was that fog/stratus eroding allowed the area to heat up while keeping northeast surface winds. Maximizing potential.

[wxsniss]

Look at it turn right too. Spinning like a top..should be warned.

yep now warned

4:37pm

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...

northern Cheshire County in southern New Hampshire...

* until 515 PM EDT

* at 432 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a

severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 6 miles west of

Westmoreland... or 8 miles north of Brattleboro... moving northeast

at 30 mph.

* Some locations in the warning include... Walpole... Surry...

Alstead... Gilsum... Sullivan and Marlow.

When a Tornado Warning is issued based on Doppler radar... it means a

tornado may already be on the ground or is expected to develop

shortly. Take cover now! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor

of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a Mobile home... a vehicle

or outdoors... move to the closest substantial shelter and protect

yourself from flying debris.

Lat... Lon 4316 7216 4314 7217 4314 7215 4302 7208

4290 7253 4295 7254 4298 7248 4301 7245

4305 7247 4308 7245 4316 7246 4316 7242

4314 7242 4314 7238 4316 7238 4318 7218

time... Mot... loc 2037z 240deg 26kt 4299 7253

Frank

[CoastalWx]

The warm front is providing some impressive low level helicity for these storms.

The key was that fog/stratus eroding allowed the area to heat up while keeping northeast surface winds. Maximizing potential.

That's a good point. Even a little CAPE on the cooler side is all you need near the boundary.

[TalcottWx]

You mean that line that is weakening ?

Where do you see hard evidence that the line is weakening??? I see organized segments and a flourishing line moving through an unstable atmosphere in NY.

What does a weakening CU field in CT have to do with a line west of ALB?

[adamrivers]

Wow on that Putney cell.... WOW.

[CoastalWx]

Right along the WF. Classic case of boundary helicity.

[wxsniss]

someone with GR3 post a velocity scan of that cell in Cheshire Co, that looks like the most impressive storm of the day yet with a decent hook echo...

[Tropopause_Fold]

wow...that is going right through putney.