Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread II

[Damage In Tolland]

If Thursday looks good maybe Chris or someone will want to go chasing around here. Although I might have to work...I have until Friday to get the rest of the skates sharpened...I can sharpen any tomorrow b/c I have training at Elmwood from 11:30 to 5:30 then I may have to work at the mall until 10:00...Tuesday I work at the rink from 11-6 but I do ice maintenance from 11-1 then have to move some boxes and change bulbs and I skate at 4:30 to 5:30 so I would probably only have an hour window to sharpen skates. Wednesday I'm taking someones shift from 4-6 so I can sharpen up until 4...so if I could finish through the figure skates Tuesday (I only have two more sizes to do) and get half the hockey skates done Wednesday I can skip Thursday and finish them on Friday.

LOL..There won't be a cloud in the sky on Thursday with the cap..Just 100's and high heat with haze.

[CT Rain]

Sunday severe if the GFS is right?

[weatherwiz]

Sunday severe if the GFS is right?

Does the 6z run show something? 0z is quite stable

[radarman]

I liked Sunday's 00z GFS much better than last night's version. Looked mostly capped Thursday with isolated minor cap breaks after dark. Significant conditional probs Friday, and a potentially big day Saturday, ending with 100kt UL winds and a squall line ahead of a cold front Saturday night.

Most recent run is muddled and slower. I guess changes shouldn't be surprising at that range. Whatever verifies will be a lot more exciting than the recent stretch no doubt.

[free_man]

I'm thinking NE gets a decent thunderstorm event Sunday/Sunday night.

[CT Rain]

I'm thinking NE gets a decent thunderstorm event Sunday/Sunday night.

GFS has pretty paltry instability

[CT Rain]

Stick a fork in Thursday. Models have slowed down enough and left ridging in place for a fail. Timing all wrong.

[free_man]

GFS has pretty paltry instability

Yeah, it doesn't look that great. I'd take a regular thunderstorm at this point, which is why I didn't mention "severe".

The threat later this week looks ridiculously hit-or-miss variety, which practically never works out IMBY. Maybe a few locations will get crushed. Looks more like an early-August setup. lol

[CT Rain]

Yeah, it doesn't look that great. I'd take a regular thunderstorm at this point, which is why I didn't mention "severe".

The threat later this week looks ridiculously hit-or-miss variety, which practically never works out IMBY. Maybe a few locations will get crushed. Looks more like an early-August setup. lol

36 hours ago it looked like we'd sneak something in but timing is off and the cap should hold.

[free_man]

36 hours ago it looked like we'd sneak something in but timing is off and the cap should hold.

Might have to wait until the beginning of July, or later I suppose, when the pattern relaxes a bit.

[CoastalWx]

Next week may be a Wiz week with aftn storms as front is stuck nearby? This is after a cool early work week.

[Damage In Tolland]

Stick a fork in Thursday. Models have slowed down enough and left ridging in place for a fail. Timing all wrong.

AMOUT

[CT Rain]

AMOUT

Thanks for using meteorology in a post!!

[Baroclinic Zone]

Continued discussion.