Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread II

[Ginx snewx]

This one is for you (inspired by Banacos and Ekster): http://ionlyusethegf...for-severe.html

Now we know who you are

[HM]

Interesting write up. The July part in bucking the Nina trend wasn't what you'd normally think, but I guess maybe monsoon trough is enhanced down that way which could help eject an EML type airmass to the northeast.

Yeah, I thought the July thing was a cool little find. Until new research on the null cases comes out, there isn't much more we can do at this point but speculate.

Now we know who you are

I'm okay with it if you are.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah, I thought the July thing was a cool little find. Until new research on the null cases comes out, there isn't much more we can do at this point but speculate.

I'm okay with it if you are.

Buddy!!!!!!!

[weatherwiz]

This one is for you (inspired by Banacos and Ekster): http://ionlyusethegf...for-severe.html

Oh man...that was incredible! This article basically answered all questions I've had since I was a little kid about whether or not it could be possible to do long-range or seasonal severe wx forecasts. I've never understood why some people would say it isn't possible...you can't know the answer to that until you go out there and do the research and compose forecasts based off of your work and work done by others...and by doing this you can always make the necessary adjustments and tweaks that are needed.

[N. OF PIKE]

what a great link HM

now wiz will be walkin around with wood for weeks

[radarman]

It really is an excellent writeup. Thank you very much for posting.

Since this is a weather board meant for back and forth discussion, I pose this question:

Assuming one could do decent seasonal forecasts of the likelihood of severe weather in the Northeast, how might that translate to societal value?

On the timescales of forecasts for Northeast severe,

Nowcasting (1-30 minute) -> "if you are in location x, take shelter, we need spotter reports from location y, send the pickup trucks and emergency personnel to location z"

Very short term forecasting (30 min to 3 hours) -> "wrap up your outdoor activities, pick the kids up from practice, move your car into the garage, your aircraft into the hangar"

Short term forecasting (3 hours to 24 hours) -> "forego that boat ride, staff the EOC, touch base with your WFO, check the batteries in your NOAA radio"

Mid range forecasting (24 hours to 72 hours) -> "watch the models, monitor discussions, verify your equipment is in supply and working, make contingency plans for your outdoor wedding"

Long range forecasting (72 hours to 240 hours) -> "check the balance in the town emergency budget, start clearing your schedule, furiously issue weenies"

Seasonal forecasting (240 hours to several months) -> ??? ("allot more money into the emergency budget, deploy some radars, opt for a chasing stay'cation.")

[weatherwiz]

It really is an excellent writeup. Thank you very much for posting.

Since this is a weather board meant for back and forth discussion, I pose this question:

Assuming one could do decent seasonal forecasts of the likelihood of severe weather in the Northeast, how might that translate to societal value?

On the timescales of forecasts for Northeast severe,

Nowcasting (1-30 minute) -> "if you are in location x, take shelter, we need spotter reports from location y, send the pickup trucks and emergency personnel to location z"

Very short term forecasting (30 min to 3 hours) -> "wrap up your outdoor activities, pick the kids up from practice, move your car into the garage, your aircraft into the hangar"

Short term forecasting (3 hours to 24 hours) -> "forego that boat ride, staff the EOC, touch base with your WFO, check the batteries in your NOAA radio"

Mid range forecasting (24 hours to 72 hours) -> "watch the models, monitor discussions, verify your equipment is in supply and working, make contingency plans for your outdoor wedding"

Long range forecasting (72 hours to 240 hours) -> "check the balance in the town emergency budget, start clearing your schedule, furiously issue weenies"

Seasonal forecasting (240 hours to several months) -> ??? ("allot more money into the emergency budget, deploy some radars, opt for a chasing stay'cation."

That's an excellent question.

I think the number one answer here would obviously be safety. The goal of forecasters is to alert the public to keep them safe and to keep them prepared and you do want to educate people as best as you can b/c the more they know/understand, the more they are likely to listen and the more likely they are to take the appropriate actions.

If severe wx forecasting can be enhanced 3-4-5 days out and you can begin alerting the public this far out this can do great wonders I think...however, you would really have to watch out as well b/c we all know how much the public can misinterpret forecasts and mix words and then freak out and such but this is where you just have to stress words like "potential" and "possibility" and reiterate the fact that things can change.

one big example I'll use here is June 1st, 2011...how many forecasts out there one day out...or even two days out mentioned the potential for a widespread/significant severe wx event and mentioned the possibility of a tornado? I know that forecasters don't like to use that word around here b/c it scares people but shouldn't it be better for the public to be completely informed of the greatest potential, especially if all the data is suggesting this is a strong possibility?

In the end with the improvement of long-range forecasting brand new windows and avenues open up for forecasters and all of this can really go along way...it may take lots of time, work, and effort but in the end it would all be worth it.

[radarman]

That's an excellent question.

I think the number one answer here would obviously be safety. The goal of forecasters is to alert the public to keep them safe and to keep them prepared and you do want to educate people as best as you can b/c the more they know/understand, the more they are likely to listen and the more likely they are to take the appropriate actions.

If severe wx forecasting can be enhanced 3-4-5 days out and you can begin alerting the public this far out this can do great wonders I think...however, you would really have to watch out as well b/c we all know how much the public can misinterpret forecasts and mix words and then freak out and such but this is where you just have to stress words like "potential" and "possibility" and reiterate the fact that things can change.

one big example I'll use here is June 1st, 2011...how many forecasts out there one day out...or even two days out mentioned the potential for a widespread/significant severe wx event and mentioned the possibility of a tornado? I know that forecasters don't like to use that word around here b/c it scares people but shouldn't it be better for the public to be completely informed of the greatest potential, especially if all the data is suggesting this is a strong possibility?

In the end with the improvement of long-range forecasting brand new windows and avenues open up for forecasters and all of this can really go along way...it may take lots of time, work, and effort but in the end it would all be worth it.

I agree with all of this, and as a weather lover in general and severe wx enthusiast in particular I am, of course, all in favor of improving the science.

As someone in the field professionally, I am constantly being asked to demonstrate the value, and to explain how it can be translated into action. Given the fickle nature of severe in this area, it's harder to make the case, at least for me, on what should be done in response to a seasonal severe forecast. I mean, on 6/1 we all knew we were looking at an anomalous setup 3 days in advance, and certain actions were taken, including starting to mention ominous wording to the public. Even on the board though there was (mostly fair) poo-pooing or at least hedging, even as the presence of the EML became more certain... (Would early morning convection contaminate and prevent destabilization? Would the s/w trend away from NE? etc.) The point is, on a local level, the uncertainty was still too high for much action. 72 hours out I doubt the city of Springfield was calling in extra crews... On the other hand, at 72 hours maybe there was enough certainty for state level agencies like MEMA to take precautions and deploy resources to Western and Central regions (although climo itself suggests that's where the severe weather resources should be anyway). But lets say in April we got word that there was an 85% higher chance of EML advection into the northeast.. what would be done? State budget cycles are long since made, and doubtful you're going to get modifications... FEMA might address it in a meeting. Doubt they'd do much, beyond host a conference call, but I suppose that would be better than nothing.

Seasonal forecasting in winter here is a different animal. People buy heating oil contracts, or opt for the spot price. Retailers have models of performance based on snow and temperature. Numerous industries are entirely based on the weather.

Perhaps, the science justifies itself. I can say for sure I'll be excited to see my probs spiked. It's just I see such good work and the reaction is that the people responsible should be rewarded. Hopefully our respect and admiration counts for something, but I'd love for society to have the foresight to apply the knowledge.

[CoastalWx]

I honestly can't see any benefit to season severe forecasting. It's too much of a nowcast deal and so many things can happen. I really don't see any societal value, other than to hobbyists who enjoy convection.

[TalcottWx]

I honestly can't see any benefit to season severe forecasting. It's too much of a nowcast deal and so many things can happen. I really don't see any societal value, other than to hobbyists who enjoy convection.

It's borderline insane to put that much time into long range seasonal severe forecasting for New England.

Besides the freak year or even event here and there, its usually a rumble of thunder and pea sized hail. I can't see the value in putting hours and days into forecasting it seasonally.

[CoastalWx]

It's borderline insane to put that much time into long range seasonal severe forecasting for New England.

Besides the freak year or even event here and there, its usually a rumble of thunder and pea sized hail. I can't see the value in putting hours and days into forecasting it seasonally.

Well I can see some value in hinting at which areas of the country are in danger of more volatile wx given ENSO state and teleconnections like HM said. There is some success with that..but obviously the details cannot be determined.

But other than hinting at areas of the country possibly being in danger of more severe wx...I cannot find a societal benefit as a whole.

[radarman]

It's borderline insane to put that much time into long range seasonal severe forecasting for New England.

Besides the freak year or even event here and there, its usually a rumble of thunder and pea sized hail. I can't see the value in putting hours and days into forecasting it seasonally.

Actually pea size hail is a big risk to agriculture here. Much more so than tornadoes or even large hail. Insurers/Insurees might be interested if you could show a cold-pool summer was on the way, a la 2008.

[weatherwiz]

I agree with all of this, and as a weather lover in general and severe wx enthusiast in particular I am, of course, all in favor of improving the science.

As someone in the field professionally, I am constantly being asked to demonstrate the value, and to explain how it can be translated into action. Given the fickle nature of severe in this area, it's harder to make the case, at least for me, on what should be done in response to a seasonal severe forecast. I mean, on 6/1 we all knew we were looking at an anomalous setup 3 days in advance, and certain actions were taken, including starting to mention ominous wording to the public. Even on the board though there was (mostly fair) poo-pooing or at least hedging, even as the presence of the EML became more certain... (Would early morning convection contaminate and prevent destabilization? Would the s/w trend away from NE? etc.) The point is, on a local level, the uncertainty was still too high for much action. 72 hours out I doubt the city of Springfield was calling in extra crews... On the other hand, at 72 hours maybe there was enough certainty for state level agencies like MEMA to take precautions and deploy resources to Western and Central regions (although climo itself suggests that's where the severe weather resources should be anyway). But lets say in April we got word that there was an 85% higher chance of EML advection into the northeast.. what would be done? State budget cycles are long since made, and doubtful you're going to get modifications... FEMA might address it in a meeting. Doubt they'd do much, beyond host a conference call, but I suppose that would be better than nothing.

Seasonal forecasting in winter here is a different animal. People buy heating oil contracts, or opt for the spot price. Retailers have models of performance based on snow and temperature. Numerous industries are entirely based on the weather.

Perhaps, the science justifies itself. I can say for sure I'll be excited to see my probs spiked. It's just I see such good work and the reaction is that the people responsible should be rewarded. Hopefully our respect and admiration counts for something, but I'd love for society to have the foresight to apply the knowledge.

I can agree to a degree with Scott's point about how long-range severe wx forecasting can be more useful for societal impact in the areas that see major outbreaks every year but they can still be done in the Northeast, while they aren't as common here they still do happen and if you see a year where the potential for a major outbreak seems much higher then you can go ahead and work with that.

I completely agree with you as well in your response to Jay, pea-hail does have a major agricultural impact here, people laugh on here when it comes to pea hail but it certainly does damage and I'm sure farmers would highly attest to this.

Long-range forecasts don't have to be given to the public but like you said...it's great for FEMA and state officials, etc b/c it gives them ample time to fully prepare...doesn't mean they have to take action but at least they can prepare and be prepared...this would heavily cut down on response time in case something catastrophic were to happen.

[bch2014]

Heading out to Nebraska for a long weekend for the College World Series, hoping to see some good severe as well. Looks like I have a good chance of getting some storms everyday!

[free_man]

Heading out to Nebraska for a long weekend for the College World Series, hoping to see some good severe as well. Looks like I have a good chance of getting some storms everyday!

Congrats. Looks like the next best chance of a light thundershower around here is next Thursday/Friday.

[free_man]

00z gfs looks okay for later next week and beyond. We'll see if that holds.

[free_man]

lol

[weatherwiz]

Might be able to pop a few storms on Saturday?

[free_man]

Might be able to pop a few storms on Saturday?

Yeah, looks pretty good for Saturday, except timing will probably be a b*tch. 12z gfs drags front closer on Thursday.

[CT Rain]

BOX's thoughts on convection Thursday.

INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMING

IF NOTHING ELSE. MODELS INDICATE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY...THANKS

LARGELY TO THE HEAT...BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS.

ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ALSO

MORE OF A CAP AT THE 700 MB LEVEL. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A

CAP BUT VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE CAP. THURSDAY...ON THE ECMWF...THE

CAP DISAPPEARS BUT THE PROFILE IS MUCH DRIER. IN THE GFS...THE CAP

STICKS AROUND AND THERE/S A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. IF WE LOSE THE

CAP AND GET MORE MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS...WE COULD SEE SOME

STRONG CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO SO FOR

NOW...WILL STICK WITH ISOLATED POPS.

[weatherwiz]

Well as long as you're not mixing that dry air down into the lower levels or to the surface you want that dry air in the mid-levels and given how there is a cap present it's a little unlikely you're going to mix much dry air down...would be ideal though to sustain a SW wind direction in the low levels to help keep the moisture flowing.

[CoastalWx]

Well as long as you're not mixing that dry air down into the lower levels or to the surface you want that dry air in the mid-levels and given how there is a cap present it's a little unlikely you're going to mix much dry air down...would be ideal though to sustain a SW wind direction in the low levels to help keep the moisture flowing.

You made more sense than that AFD.

[free_man]

Pretty good overall pattern upcoming for NE standards, doesn't get much better actually. lol

[weatherwiz]

Yup...now hopefully we can translate into something.

[CT Rain]

Thursday?

[weatherwiz]

Thursday?

\Maybe late in the day? Looks like alot of CIN around at 18z

By 0z CIN has decreased but LOTS of cape...even more than 18z

[CT Rain]

\Maybe late in the day? Looks like alot of CIN around at 18z

By 0z CIN has decreased but LOTS of cape...even more than 18z

500mb heights start falling late Wednesday night and all day thursday. Should erode the cap all day long.

[weatherwiz]

500mb heights start falling late Wednesday night and all day thursday. Should erode the cap all day long.

Nice!

I just hope the cap doesn't break *too* early..would like to generate as much instability as possible.

Also given how we are going t be seeing some pretty nasty heat mid-level lapse rates aren't too bad...well we can thank the very warm 700mb temps for this...looks like lapse rates could be around 6.5-7 C/KM.

Shear isn't all too bad either...could be better but it's certainly good enough.

[weatherwiz]

I wish twisterdata was faster

[weatherwiz]

If Thursday looks good maybe Chris or someone will want to go chasing around here. Although I might have to work...I have until Friday to get the rest of the skates sharpened...I can sharpen any tomorrow b/c I have training at Elmwood from 11:30 to 5:30 then I may have to work at the mall until 10:00...Tuesday I work at the rink from 11-6 but I do ice maintenance from 11-1 then have to move some boxes and change bulbs and I skate at 4:30 to 5:30 so I would probably only have an hour window to sharpen skates. Wednesday I'm taking someones shift from 4-6 so I can sharpen up until 4...so if I could finish through the figure skates Tuesday (I only have two more sizes to do) and get half the hockey skates done Wednesday I can skip Thursday and finish them on Friday.