Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread II

[ROOSTA]

Belchertown?

Sorry,

Beantown

Was actually best thunderstorm experienced in years...best event this year (sad but true) What a boring uneventful stretch, save the banter and gtg ala NE style fiasco

[radarman]

Sorry,

Beantown

Was actually best thunderstorm experienced in years...best event this year (sad but true) What a boring uneventful stretch, save the banter and gtg ala NE style fiasco

Sorry, should've known. Was slightly confused because Belchertown did receive heavy rain with thunder, but didn't think there was hail.

[weatherMA]

Storm moving right overhead ATM. A few louder rumbles, quick downpour, cc lightning.

[crownweather]

Not sure whether this will pan out, but almost looks like Northwest flow setup for both the 6-10 and 8-14 day timeframe according to the GFS ensemble guidance. One analog is late June of 1989. Noticed that this particular year has popped up in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day analogs. Will be interested to see how this setup unfolds over the next couple of weeks or so.

[TalcottWx]

Sorry,

Beantown

Was actually best thunderstorm experienced in years...best event this year (sad but true) What a boring uneventful stretch, save the banter and gtg ala NE style fiasco

Don't know if I agree! Remember our elevated storm last summer?

P.S. All that construction seems like it never ends up by your way!

[weatherwiz]

wow...yesterday sucked. Must have been the low dews?

[free_man]

WATCHING MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CLIMBING OVER THE PLAINS RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT

LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER ANY TSTM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS

TONIGHT SHOULD TRACK WELL SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND ACROSS PA AND NJ

WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR EXIST.

Who woulda guessed? ;D

[weatherwiz]

Typical

[free_man]

wow...yesterday sucked. Must have been the low dews?

low dews

[weatherwiz]

low dews

Makes sense.

Last night when I was at this restaurant I used my brothers phone and read through the thread and I saw several posts mentioning how the dewpoints ended up lowering into the 40's.

[Quincy]

a weak thunderstorm is moving into Morris/Bethlehem/Watertown, CT as we speak

[CT Rain]

a weak thunderstorm is moving into Morris/Bethlehem/Watertown, CT as we speak

I highly doubt any thunder from that thing? Core has barely gotten up into the ice growth zone.

[Quincy]

I highly doubt any thunder from that thing? Core has barely gotten up into the ice growth zone.

meant to say thundershower, but it doesn't make much difference. (probably didn't even have any thunder, as you mentioned)

whatever is left of that cell is falling apart at the moment.

[CT Rain]

meant to say thundershower, but it doesn't make much difference. (probably didn't even have any thunder, as you mentioned)

whatever is left of that cell is falling apart at the moment.

Well if it didn't have any thunder it's not a thundershowers. The core barely made it up above the -5c level... wasn't even close to producing lightning.

I've seen like 3 CT weather weenies tweet about a thunderstorm over Litchfield County. Just because there's red on radar doesn't mean there's lightning!

[Damage In Tolland]

[Quincy]

this is how boring of a weather day it is when we're arguing about thunder vs. lightning vs. shower vs. weeniestorm

[ChrisM]

Well if it didn't have any thunder it's not a thundershowers. The core barely made it up above the -5c level... wasn't even close to producing lightning.

I've seen like 3 CT weather weenies tweet about a thunderstorm over Litchfield County. Just because there's red on radar doesn't mean there's lightning!

Do you have to use gr type software to see heights like that?

[Quincy]

poor, little old me doesn't have any fancy way of tracking these storms

[CT Rain]

Do you have to use gr type software to see heights like that?

Yeah GR2. Can't live without it.

[powderfreak]

Well if it didn't have any thunder it's not a thundershowers.

Makes sense. Sort of like if a storm doesn't have any hail, its not a hailstorm?

[CT Rain]

Makes sense. Sort of like if a storm doesn't have any hail, its not a hailstorm?

Yeah it's like saying today's storm was a snowstorm. No snow means not a snowstorm lol.

[powderfreak]

Yeah it's like saying today's storm was a snowstorm. No snow means not a snowstorm lol.

I almost used that example. Was thinking more along the lines of a snow shower without snow, is it just a shower? We could go on all day...

[OceanStWx]

That bow echo is going right to PWM. Congrats Eric and Ekster.

Of course I was basking in the heavy, heavy sunshine in Saratoga.

Seems like the core went south of my place though, with just peas in the Old Port.

[weatherwiz]

ughh the pattern through the last week of June looks absolutely terrible for hopes of any big severe wx setups...sure we may be able to sneak some low end slight risk type day in there but that pattern on the GFS blows.

[weatherwiz]

The Euro around 192-216 HR actually doesn't look bad and would have potential for svr here, however, the trough kind of weakens and the 500mb low become more of a closed wave.

[free_man]

Onto hurricane season.

[weatherwiz]

Onto hurricane season.

I'm actually about to move onto winter

[forkyfork]

better than what we've been seeing recently

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geopotential%20at%20500hPa!North%20America!216!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2012061212!!/

[HM]

ughh the pattern through the last week of June looks absolutely terrible for hopes of any big severe wx setups...sure we may be able to sneak some low end slight risk type day in there but that pattern on the GFS blows.

This one is for you (inspired by Banacos and Ekster): http://ionlyusethegfs.blogspot.com/2012/06/are-seasonal-forecasts-for-severe.html

[CoastalWx]

Interesting write up. The July part in bucking the Nina trend wasn't what you'd normally think, but I guess maybe monsoon trough is enhanced down that way which could help eject an EML type airmass to the northeast.