Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread II

[Professional Lurker]

OK, I'm going to myself, a Tor watch to my W and N, a Severe Tstorm watch to my Northeast, WTF??

[HoarfrostHubb]

Been following this for the last few minutes. Of course another tor warning back home when I'm gone lol. Cell looking good. Channeling along the CT River Valley definitely helping low level rotation.

can your parents post? Close to Keene

[HoarfrostHubb]

This looks pretty interesting with the cell convergence over N Cheshire. Strong inflow from the south with the tor warned cell starting to turn more right also

2 for 1 special?

Cheshire fairgrounds getting flattened again?

[ineedsnow]

you will be in one in the next hour or so i think

OK, I'm going to myself, a Tor watch to my W and N, a Severe Tstorm watch to my Northeast, WTF??

[Typhoon Tip]

Cu field in CT now sweep out and N. Marine contamination's going to make it difficult even in CT now. But ... with the front tending to stall could train with elevated instability kicking after dark. Less SB ...but could be somethin'

It's the lesser story but this is a pretty epic temperature bust for N-NE Mass... FIT isn't even 70F yet.

[Tropopause_Fold]

tough call for wiz....stay put and have possible golf balls overhead shortly...or head north and hope to catch up to those cells moving ENE which offer a better wind/rotation threat

[CoastalWx]

all the way to the coast Scott ? What's the rough timing on it ?

Timing? I'll be inside at an event without being able to use internet from 6:30 to 9...hope I don't miss anything too good.

the question is can we get any discrete cells to form ahead of it for some real fun

Just got into work so will have to look.

[Damage In Tolland]

Squall line after dark I think

Nice. I envision one of those wild, non stop lightning deals with a gust front and plenty of wind damage

[Damage In Tolland]

tough call for wiz....stay put and have possible golf balls overhead shortly...or head north and hope to catch up to those cells moving ENE which offer a better wind/rotation threat

Or head home and wait for damaging squall line?

[OKpowdah]

2 for 1 special?

Cheshire fairgrounds getting flattened again?

yeah Cheshire hasn't seen a tornado since that one in 1997. If you go back to 1950, there was actually a period when we averaged about one a year, and then since the late 1980's we've only seen two or three.

I'll give my parents a call in a bit probably. They're also on the NW side of Keene ... perfect. Maybe some hail

[moneypitmike]

Truly a scorcher out there, though the dp has come down 2* in the last half hour. 84.3/71

I wonder if they'll put a watch up.

[Tropopause_Fold]

cell just w of Keene starting to strengthen now

[ChrisM]

Cu field in CT now sweep out and N. Marine contamination's going to make it difficult even in CT now. But ... with the front tending to stall could train with elevated instability kicking after dark. Less SB ...but could be somethin'

It's the lesser story but this is a pretty epic temperature bust for N-NE Mass... FIT isn't even 70F yet.

dude what

[TalcottWx]

tough call for wiz....stay put and have possible golf balls overhead shortly...or head north and hope to catch up to those cells moving ENE which offer a better wind/rotation threat

stay put

isn't that valley prime for spin ups due to the way the win funnels in from the south?

[CoastalWx]

Looks like timing line near 7pm NW CT? Doubt this survives east of ORH, but if there is enough of a push...storms could still be elevated as they move into ern areas.

[CT Rain]

Cu field in CT now sweep out and N. Marine contamination's going to make it difficult even in CT now. But ... with the front tending to stall could train with elevated instability kicking after dark. Less SB ...but could be somethin'

It's the lesser story but this is a pretty epic temperature bust for N-NE Mass... FIT isn't even 70F yet.

lol I don't think so

There's a wind shift that moved through with the sea breeze front but HFD is still 31/22. We're fine.

[ChrisM]

Hes saying we aren't getting ****.

I don't agree.

[Ed Lizard]

I still think time for some action in Massachusetts near boundary between ORH and BAF. ORH on 'wrong' side of boundary, but upper 60s dewpoints, what should be low LCLs, storms might still be close enough to being surface based

[Typhoon Tip]

Hes saying we aren't getting ****.

Even though the thermometer may not reflect it, seeing the cu field fleet N and leave it completely clear behind an obvious arcing axis as it punches N is equally clear indications that some kind of stablizing influence has arrived - that's most likely some marine contamination.

It's a S wind in May, what does one expect.

I'm not saying you aren't getting anything at all, just that the surface based instability stuff up N ain't going to be your thing. You may get residual stuff later on.

[wxsniss]

19Z RAP increases EHI over western Mass in the next 4 hours

anyone have thoughts on potential for western half of Mass early evening?

cell in southeast NY / north of Monitcello not doing much yet

[ct_yankee]

Cu field in CT now sweep out and N. Marine contamination's going to make it difficult even in CT now. But ... with the front tending to stall could train with elevated instability kicking after dark. Less SB ...but could be somethin'

It's the lesser story but this is a pretty epic temperature bust for N-NE Mass... FIT isn't even 70F yet.

I knew today was probably gonna be a daytime bust in CT when I went outside this morning and saw absolutely cloudless skies, not a speck of a wisp of a cu to be seen anywhere. Never a good sign. Maybe, if we're lucky, we'll get a light show tonight as a small consolation prize.

I have close relatives in Bradford and Corinth VT... Sure wish I was up there now.

[OSUmetstud]

Anecdotally, it seems like these prefrontal troughs perform better in the NE compared to bonified cold fronts. They almost act like a midwest dry line.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Scorching and humid, can just feel the moisture convecting out of the ground.

Cumulonimbus towering all around the valley, gonna' take a ride with the baby and snap some photos. Looks like we don't get in on the action until evening.

[snowman21]

Nice 80dBZ cell crossing I-87 in Lake George.

[powderfreak]

tough call for wiz....stay put and have possible golf balls overhead shortly...or head north and hope to catch up to those cells moving ENE which offer a better wind/rotation threat

Renssaeler County where he is rarely disappoints. It's in the same league as Bennington County in SVT as far as a severe storm magnet goes.

[Damage In Tolland]

lol I don't think so

There's a wind shift that moved through with the sea breeze front but HFD is still 31/22. We're fine.

Yup..not sure what he;'s been discussing

[Typhoon Tip]

19Z RAP increases EHI over western Mass in the next 4 hours

anyone have thoughts on potential for western half of Mass early evening?

cell in southeast NY / north of Monitcello not doing much yet

I suspect it is doing so because as you can see by hi res loop there is a southerly component punching N out of western/central CT; meanwhile mid lvl vectors are average W or WSW.

As for later this evening... Heights should start to fall more actively toward 22-00z. Should outflow and or contamination from LI S not mute, there could be a window there for SB stuff. Otherwise, probably have to wait for residual/diurnal type thermodynamic stuff.

[CoastalWx]

Areas to western MA through SW NH and into NW CT are in for a good show I think. Maybe we can bring that into ORH-TOL?

[ChrisM]

indications that some kind of stablizing influence has arrived -

3500 SB CAPE. 3k+ MU Cape. Li -9. Sounds unstable no?

[Tropopause_Fold]

Renssaeler County where he is rarely disappoints. It's in the same league as Bennington County in SVT as far as a severe storm magnet goes.

i think if i were him i'd be headed north just a bit but maybe he'll make out good where he is.