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Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread II

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

I still say we see more hail than wind reports today.

If we count hail any size then you might be right. Care to make that same statement with 1" or larger reports? :devilsmiley:

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Uh western RI includes Foster West Greenwich area and Scooter is right. How many does Kent County have?

2 lol

Compared to New Haven/Hartford/Litchfield it gets comparatively little but yeah you guys are right they can have some nice flare ups down there with sea breeze interaction in the summer. I got caught in a helacious thunderstorm on 95 in Washington Co years ago.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

If we count hail any size then you might be right. Care to make that same statement with 1" or larger reports? :devilsmiley:

I was waiting for a response like this :lol:

Anyways though today should have a variety of fun. I like what Scott said earlier too about SNE potentially getting into a nice line right around 0z..it's at this time when the nose of a strengthening MLJ punches into the region (~50-60 knots) placing us in the exit region and looks like a good deal of diffluence in the upper levels with a strengthening ULJ as well (increasing to over 100-100 knots!). Helicity also increase later in the afternoon which should help enhance updraft rotation so I think we could see several 1'' hail reports but this will all depend on how mature updrafts can become and if updrafts have any issues like Ryan mentioned earlier.

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

I was waiting for a response like this :lol:

Anyways though today should have a variety of fun. I like what Scott said earlier too about SNE potentially getting into a nice line right around 0z..it's at this time when the nose of a strengthening MLJ punches into the region (~50-60 knots) placing us in the exit region and looks like a good deal of diffluence in the upper levels with a strengthening ULJ as well (increasing to over 100-100 knots!). Helicity also increase later in the afternoon which should help enhance updraft rotation so I think we could see several 1'' hail reports but this will all depend on how mature updrafts can become and if updrafts have any issues like Ryan mentioned earlier.

And I was waiting for a response like this. I'll take your word for it; you are the expert. :)

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

2 lol

Compared to New Haven/Hartford/Litchfield it gets comparatively little but yeah you guys are right they can have some nice flare ups down there with sea breeze interaction in the summer. I got caught in a helacious thunderstorm on 95 in Washington Co years ago.

I went to the tornado project page, didn't PVD have an F-2, its not listed there.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

And I was waiting for a response like this. I'll take your word for it; you are the expert. :)

We'll also have to see what the main storm mode today/tonight is as that will certainly play a major factor here. It does look like the latest trends would lead to more in the way of linear development, however, I could see more discrete development, especially early on in the afternoon so we could be looking at more of a hail threat early on with everything progressing more towards a wind threat.

All I know is I would LOVE to see some 35,000 to 40,000ft towers today...take a look at those winds from 500-250mb as well as the turning with height there...if we can get any cells to punch that high that would produce some awesome fun. Unfortunately the chances of getting something that high are probably fairly low but you can always think, "what if".

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Again, this has to almost entirely forced ascent triggered -...if the profiling is correct, that is. The CIN is there. The DPs are skimpy and where sites are nearing 70F and the first turning of the boundary layer is taking place, DPs are falling several degrees, indicative of the drier sounding. Still, shear, jet mechanics, and some residual mid level lapse rates in the area may overcome a theta-e challenge.

This could provide for some interesting negative CAPE action with outflow bursting.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Again, this has to almost entirely forced ascent triggered -...if the profiling is correct, that is. The CIN is there. The DPs are skimpy and where sites are nearing 70F and the first turning of the boundary layer is taking place, DPs are falling several degrees, indicative of the drier sounding. Still, shear, jet mechanics, and some residual mid level lapse rates in the area may overcome a theta-e challenge.

This could provide for some interesting negative CAPE action with outflow bursting.

funny though - in many respects (speaking as a coastal / E MA resident) i'd take today's poor CAPE environment working in combo with residual cold pool and some good jet structure over a lot of other days.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

funny though - in many respects (speaking as a coastal / E MA resident) i'd take today's poor CAPE environment working in combo with residual cold pool and some good jet structure over a lot of other days.

I agree.

I also like the possibly 2 or more lines of storms today. While it may not be the strongest, I think the second line near 00z could pack a punch for some.

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted

strong wording from box

1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS

AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS

NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. ALTHOUGH

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN

NEW ENGLAND AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...THE CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

IS GREATEST BETWEEN 5 AND 9 PM ACROSS NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AND

SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND BETWEEN 7 AND 11 PM ACROSS NORTHEAST

MASSACHUSETTS. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY

PRODUCE LOCAL DOWNPOURS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

AFTER 3 PM...PEOPLE ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD KEEP AN EYE

TO THE SKY AND BE READY TO QUICKLY MOVE TO SHELTER IF A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS ISSUED OR THE SKY BEGINS TO LOOK

THREATENING.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

With the increase in mid-level lapse rates we'll see some boosting of instability values, however, we'll be limited to how unstable we can become due to the low dewpoints. You can see how low dewpoints affect instability...while we have near 1500 J/KG of SBcape we're struggling to get to 1000 J/KG of MLcape and LI values are only around -2C or so across our area.

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