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Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread II

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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For SNE, I think the line to watch will be the one possibly near and after 00z. While we lose daytime heating, this will be the line that will work off the forcing. Shear is also stronger too at this time. Sometimes we are focused on the daytime heating stuff, but this may be a case where the final line comes through in the evening. Again, maybe not widespread strong to severe, but I bet we'll have a few warned cells.

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HM

HM

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I do like the 500mb temperatures, wind shear and surface convergence today. I think the thing to watch will be the DCAPE values this afternoon. Rain-cooled downbursts look like they could be a big deal today with organized convection.

Yesterday, we had some severe weather down my way with plenty of hail reports. There was also a possible funnel cloud in Atlantic County (head to the PHL subforum to see the picture) but it was most likely an organizing wall / shelf. Very low-hanging structure, whatever it was, and there was definitely hints of rotation.

Today's storms will have nice sights too with the the type of atmosphere in place.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
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I do like the 500mb temperatures, wind shear and surface convergence today. I think the thing to watch will be the DCAPE values this afternoon. Rain-cooled downbursts look like they could be a big deal today with organized convection.

Yesterday, we had some severe weather down my way with plenty of hail reports. There was also a possible funnel cloud in Atlantic County (head to the PHL subforum to see the picture) but it was most likely an organizing wall / shelf. Very low-hanging structure, whatever it was, and there was definitely hints of rotation.

Today's storms will have nice sights too with the the type of atmosphere in place.

Yeah gusty winds with the dry boundary layer will definitely be the thing to watch later. Widespread or high-end severe not really in the cards but some good wind gusts and small hail reports definitely possible.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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I do like the 500mb temperatures, wind shear and surface convergence today. I think the thing to watch will be the DCAPE values this afternoon. Rain-cooled downbursts look like they could be a big deal today with organized convection.

Yesterday, we had some severe weather down my way with plenty of hail reports. There was also a possible funnel cloud in Atlantic County (head to the PHL subforum to see the picture) but it was most likely an organizing wall / shelf. Very low-hanging structure, whatever it was, and there was definitely hints of rotation.

Today's storms will have nice sights too with the the type of atmosphere in place.

I'll be down your way this aftn...well NW NJ. Hopefully between now and Sunday,we can grab a few good tstms.

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HM

HM

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Yeah gusty winds with the dry boundary layer will definitely be the thing to watch later. Widespread or high-end severe not really in the cards but some good wind gusts and small hail reports definitely possible.

Agreed. Could be a few rounds with maybe the best for last as Scott suggested. The first storms that develop and become strong will have the best sights today given the time they form and the atmosphere they develop in. Could be some pretty structures.

I'll be down your way this aftn...well NW NJ. Hopefully between now and Sunday,we can grab a few good tstms.

Why on Earth are you coming to NW NJ! lol

I suppose we could have stationary front fun tomorrow but I am worried about the lack of moisture advection. I agree with SPC about only a 5% risk.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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I do like the 500mb temperatures, wind shear and surface convergence today. I think the thing to watch will be the DCAPE values this afternoon. Rain-cooled downbursts look like they could be a big deal today with organized convection.

Yesterday, we had some severe weather down my way with plenty of hail reports. There was also a possible funnel cloud in Atlantic County (head to the PHL subforum to see the picture) but it was most likely an organizing wall / shelf. Very low-hanging structure, whatever it was, and there was definitely hints of rotation.

Today's storms will have nice sights too with the the type of atmosphere in place.

Nice, I have seen some fantastic sights the last two days. Very picturesque storms with shelf clouds, mammatus and even some rotation. Unique event in that ECT was the best spot. I suppose the sea breeze boundary had something to do with that.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Agreed. Could be a few rounds with maybe the best for last as Scott suggested. The first storms that develop and become strong will have the best sights today given the time they form and the atmosphere they develop in. Could be some pretty structures.

Why on Earth are you coming to NW NJ! lol

I suppose we could have stationary front fun tomorrow but I am worried about the lack of moisture advection. I agree with SPC about only a 5% risk.

Wedding..lol.

With me being gone, I'm sure the BOS area will get raked. Had some hail yesterday here while I was at work.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Nice, I have seen some fantastic sights the last two days. Very picturesque storms with shelf clouds, mammatus and even some rotation. Unique event in that ECT was the best spot. I suppose the sea breeze boundary had something to do with that.

Yeah a couple SE CT/South County weather winners.

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HM

HM

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Nice, I have seen some fantastic sights the last two days. Very picturesque storms with shelf clouds, mammatus and even some rotation. Unique event in that ECT was the best spot. I suppose the sea breeze boundary had something to do with that.

Holy cow that is nice. Yeah these setups can bring day after day of beautiful structures. The lack of haze and contamination makes this photogenic.

Heck, the atmosphere has been so unusually photogenic that several people in several different areas saw cold air funnels across NJ on Monday. I thought it was very unusual not only because it is NJ and usually they are hidden but because of how widespread it was.

Really interesting week for sure.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Holy cow that is nice. Yeah these setups can bring day after day of beautiful structures. The lack of haze and contamination makes this photogenic.

Heck, the atmosphere has been so unusually photogenic that several people in several different areas saw cold air funnels across NJ on Monday. I thought it was very unusual not only because it is NJ and usually they are hidden but because of how widespread it was.

Really interesting week for sure.

In other words not boring, LOL Scooter

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Holy cow that is nice. Yeah these setups can bring day after day of beautiful structures. The lack of haze and contamination makes this photogenic.

Heck, the atmosphere has been so unusually photogenic that several people in several different areas saw cold air funnels across NJ on Monday. I thought it was very unusual not only because it is NJ and usually they are hidden but because of how widespread it was.

Really interesting week for sure.

Yeah we had a cold air funnel here in CT as well.

Check out this cool sat picture from MODIS Climate Central tweeted out this Am.

http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/image-of-the-day-earths-eyeball/

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HM

HM

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Wedding..lol.

With me being gone, I'm sure the BOS area will get raked. Had some hail yesterday here while I was at work.

You poor poor man. What town you heading for? Just like any area, there are some sketchy areas in NW NJ where anything modern seems to have eluded them. lol

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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They do? Not in winter or severe wx season. Washington County RI... with a grand total of 1 tornadoes from 1950-2011.

Maybe not TORs, but the area near Coventry for example always seems to get nailed...even West Greenwich. Just relatively speaking of course...they do well imo compared to how far they are from the water.

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HM

HM

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Yeah we had a cold air funnel here in CT as well.

Check out this cool sat picture from MODIS Climate Central tweeted out this Am.

http://www.climatece...earths-eyeball/

Andover NJ. I know the area somewhat..looks like a pretty area.

That is an awesome image; glad to see we aren't the only ones seeing an interesting weather week. Andover is nice, as is a lot of southern Sussex County.

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