Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread II

[ChrisM]

Yeah the system was pretty much all linear by that point. So there definitely wasn't a low level mesocyclone around besides that little spin up around Norfolk one the storms came down the ridge and became totally outflow dominated.

I should have known...when I was in Springfield last year on June 1 it was pretty damn obvious what was about to happen. I'll never forget that...ever.

[JJBASHB]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

533 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

...EF0 TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR WEST GLOVER IN ORLEANS COUNTY VERMONT...

LOCATION...WEST GLOVER IN ORLEANS COUNTY VERMONT

DATE...MAY 29 2012

ESTIMATED TIME...325 PM EDT

MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0

ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...70 MPH

MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...100 YARDS

PATH LENGTH...1/3 MILE

BEGINNING LAT/LON...44.69N / 72.26W

ENDING LAT/LON...44.69N / 72.26W

* FATALITIES...0

* INJURIES...0

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO

CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN

NWS STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON VERMONT HAS CONFIRMED

AN EF0 TORNADO NEAR WEST GLOVER IN ORLEANS COUNTY VERMONT ON MAY 29

2012.

THIS TORNADO INITIALLY TOUCHED DOWN NEAR A PRIVATE RESIDENCE ON

BEACH HILL ROAD AND TRACKED EASTWARD FOR APPROXIMATELY A THIRD OF

A MILE BEFORE THE DAMAGE TRACK ENDED. THE DAMAGE WIDTH PEAKED AT

100 YARDS. IN THIS AREA...DAMAGE WAS LIMITED TO THE PRIVATE

RESIDENCE WHERE A PORTION OF THE CHIMNEY WAS DESTROYED AND TO

APPROXIMATELY 45 TREES.

THIS DAMAGE IS CONSISTENT WITH AN EF0 TORNADO WITH MAXIMUM WINDS

OF 65 TO 85 MPH.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[HoarfrostHubb]

Tornado #1 for New England this year

Vt 1

Everyone else 0

[weatherwiz]

I'll be stationed out in the mid-Atlantic thread the next few days.

[TalcottWx]

I'll be stationed out in the mid-Atlantic thread the next few days.

I feel bad for you

[ChrisM]

I feel bad for you

Why lol it looks decent

[weatherwiz]

Why lol it looks decent

I think he means b/c I'm in the mid-Atlantic forum

[Ginx snewx]

For SNE this was as epic a phail three days as I have seen.

[NECT]

For SNE this was as epic a phail three days as I have seen.

Agreed. But severe wx in SNE proper is often limited to Hartford and NW - maybe even more so than watching a coastal snow storm a few days out? So many things have to go right.

[ct_yankee]

we'll never know but there could have been a little spin up in Norfolk last night.

This is the classic spin up in SNE that pads out tornado numbers. We had one of these last year in Woodbury, the Bridgeport tornado was a pseudo-version of this, and the Branford/Madison tornado 2 years ago along the shoreline.

I know this probably isn’t the thread for this, and I apologize for the hijack, but not much is happening right now and I just have to ask, what can you or anyone tell me about that Branford/Madison tornado? Was it really tornadic in Branford too? I missed that one by a couple minutes or a couple of miles, depending on how you look at it. Wasn’t expecting anything out of that cell, but I was southbound on 95 having gotten on at exit 59 in Guilford, and the area of rotation went directly over me. I was astonished, the shelf/wall cloud had “that look” that I’ve seen out in tornado alley but almost never around here, and there was obvious rotation. I remember I immediately called my friend to ask if there was a T-warning on it and of course there wasn’t, but I couldn‘t have chased it anyway since I was stuck in bumper to bumper traffic on the interstate and the cell was flying the other way. But there were several unusual things about that tornado - winds backing with height, to name just one - and I was wondering if you had any information or thoughts about that day. It was before I was even a lurker here, so if there was a thread about the event I missed it. Man, I really flipped when I found out days later that there had indeed been a tornado with the rotation I saw. So close! And yet so far away… Typical SNE chasing. But the near miss has haunted me ever since.

[ineedsnow]

I really hope you get it man it would be good to see you again

This absolutely sucks...

I haven't received my check for my craigslist postings yet this week, normally it comes on every other Monday but nothing this week. My friend and I were supposed to drive up to NH tomorrow to grab his check but we don't have enough gas...I pray my check comes in tomorrow or otherwise we can scratch going to the skywarn meeting off tomorrow night and we can forget Friday and reads this AFD from LWX

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AS A COLD FRONT FROM

A LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST

ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF

TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE LWX CWA FROM MIDDAY OUT WEST TO THE

EVENING IN THE EAST. THIS IS FAVORABLE TIMING DIURNALLY SO

INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE

STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BRINGING PWATS INTO THE 1.6 TO 1.8

RANGE...SO EXPECT HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.

BULK SHEAR OF 35 KT MEETS THE MINIMUM REQUIREMENT FOR SUPERCELLS BUT

IS NOT SPECTACULAR. HOWEVER...THE JET APPROACHES IN THE EVENING WITH

LWX IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION...SO THE SUPERCELL THREAT LOOKS TO

INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENT. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR /IN BOTH 12Z NAM AND

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH 25 TO 30 KT

OF SFC TO 0.5KM SHEAR. THEREFORE THE WORDING IN THE HWO WILL BE

STRENGTHENED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FLASH FLOODING...DAMAGING

WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

[weatherwiz]

I really hope you get it man it would be good to see you again

It would be great to see you as well.

I seriously can't believe it hasn't come in. I sent an email to the lady who hired me so we'll see what she says in the morning...she'll probably contact payroll for me.

I don't think the holiday could have backed things up that much but you never know.

My plan was to get to Chicopee around 5:30 PM but I won't be leaving Hartford until around 5:15 so hopefully we can make it by 6:00 but that's prime rush hour :/

[CT Rain]

I know this probably isn’t the thread for this, and I apologize for the hijack, but not much is happening right now and I just have to ask, what can you or anyone tell me about that Branford/Madison tornado? Was it really tornadic in Branford too? I missed that one by a couple minutes or a couple of miles, depending on how you look at it. Wasn’t expecting anything out of that cell, but I was southbound on 95 having gotten on at exit 59 in Guilford, and the area of rotation went directly over me. I was astonished, the shelf/wall cloud had “that look” that I’ve seen out in tornado alley but almost never around here, and there was obvious rotation. I remember I immediately called my friend to ask if there was a T-warning on it and of course there wasn’t, but I couldn‘t have chased it anyway since I was stuck in bumper to bumper traffic on the interstate and the cell was flying the other way. But there were several unusual things about that tornado - winds backing with height, to name just one - and I was wondering if you had any information or thoughts about that day. It was before I was even a lurker here, so if there was a thread about the event I missed it. Man, I really flipped when I found out days later that there had indeed been a tornado with the rotation I saw. So close! And yet so far away… Typical SNE chasing. But the near miss has haunted me ever since.

The NWS never surveyed the damage... and I didn't get a chance to until a couple days later.... so I'm not sure. I do think there was an area of damage in Pine Orchard that could have been tornadic with a spin up on the leading edge of that bow echo. Even if you were there it probably would have been next to impossible to see.

[ineedsnow]

any luck? ill be there at like 530 6

It would be great to see you as well.

I seriously can't believe it hasn't come in. I sent an email to the lady who hired me so we'll see what she says in the morning...she'll probably contact payroll for me.

I don't think the holiday could have backed things up that much but you never know.

My plan was to get to Chicopee around 5:30 PM but I won't be leaving Hartford until around 5:15 so hopefully we can make it by 6:00 but that's prime rush hour :/

[CT Rain]

For SNE this was as epic a phail three days as I have seen.

Not sure how it can be a phail when most areas never were supposed to get anything. It was pretty much a AWT kind of deal with storms NW of BDL/BAF. The storms on Monday were totally conditional on getting a trigger (something that was more likely than not not going to happen). So again AWT.

The Saturday storms wound up overperforming in some areas with very impressive hail and wind in Middlesex County CT.

[Tropopause_Fold]

too bad there isn't some more instabilty around for sat

[HM]

After we get beyond this -NAO period, things may start to get interesting again for potential EML advection. As we move deeper into June, suddenly the entire Intermountain West becomes a potential source. I like the continuous troughing being modeled across the West Coast and building heights in the Central US. At some point, the waves will shorten and it could lead to a ECMWF-like scenario of cutting something off in the South. Once the blocking / NW Atlantic Low is gone, warm anomalies in the mid troposphere will be able to advect through the Upper Midwest and possibly New England.

So mid to late June has promise again for severe after the first 10 days or so of blah weather.

[CoastalWx]

After we get beyond this -NAO period, things may start to get interesting again for potential EML advection. As we move deeper into June, suddenly the entire Intermountain West becomes a potential source. I like the continuous troughing being modeled across the West Coast and building heights in the Central US. At some point, the waves will shorten and it could lead to a ECMWF-like scenario of cutting something off in the South. Once the blocking / NW Atlantic Low is gone, warm anomalies in the mid troposphere will be able to advect through the Upper Midwest and possibly New England.

So mid to late June has promise again for severe after the first 10 days or so of blah weather.

That's what the EC ensembles show. Straight shot in the mid levels moving into the area with above normal heights across srn Canada. Like a ring of fire type look.

[weatherwiz]

any luck? ill be there at like 530 6

My check was sent out on Friday so I should be receiving it this afternoon!

Should be leaving right around 5!

[weatherwiz]

After we get beyond this -NAO period, things may start to get interesting again for potential EML advection. As we move deeper into June, suddenly the entire Intermountain West becomes a potential source. I like the continuous troughing being modeled across the West Coast and building heights in the Central US. At some point, the waves will shorten and it could lead to a ECMWF-like scenario of cutting something off in the South. Once the blocking / NW Atlantic Low is gone, warm anomalies in the mid troposphere will be able to advect through the Upper Midwest and possibly New England.

So mid to late June has promise again for severe after the first 10 days or so of blah weather.

Anytime you see a trough develop like that in the west you have to become intrigued, especially as it begins to advance eastward and if it stays in tact.

[ineedsnow]

awesome!!

My check was sent out on Friday so I should be receiving it this afternoon!

Should be leaving right around 5!

[ct_yankee]

The NWS never surveyed the damage... and I didn't get a chance to until a couple days later.... so I'm not sure. I do think there was an area of damage in Pine Orchard that could have been tornadic with a spin up on the leading edge of that bow echo. Even if you were there it probably would have been next to impossible to see.

Actually the area of rotation I saw was part of a pretty good rain free base, it was not at all rain wrapped. I think anything dropping from that area would have been pretty visible. Certainly if you were as close to it as I was... Hell, I suspect I might have been able to see the Madison tornado if my car had just been facing the other way! I mean that’s the thing, this wasn’t the kind of typical SNE heavy precip squall line shelf that we've all seen so many times. That’s what I was expecting to see, but when the lowering got close it didn‘t look like that, in fact it looked more meso-ish than shelf-ish the closer it got. There was no rain and I could plainly see the back side of the lowering racing from right to left while the front side was moving left to right - rotating, in other words. When you factor in the way the whole lowering looked… Like I said, it reminded me of stuff I’ve seen out west, but it‘s a bit difficult to explain why... OK here’s my best attempt as a description: the lowering had that bursting-at-the-seams ragged-cloud-columns-all-squashed-together look… Err, OK, clearly I need a pic to give you a clue as to what I‘m talking about. After a quick search for something similar, let's just say it was a bit reminiscent of stuff like this and this. Obviously not exactly like those pics but the similarity was there, it was not your usual SNE shelf cloud. Yes, it was elongated, but it wasn’t completely linear, and there was definite rotation. Whatever it was, it commanded instant respect and I would have chased it then and there if I could, but by the time I was off the phone to my friend asking him about warnings I was already past exit 57 and in no man’s land, stuck in bumper to bumper traffic with the lowering flying the other way up the shoreline. Definitely an unusual situation, though, I must have been directly under the spin-up at just the right time. Although not quite exactly just the right time, since I missed the tornado.

[HM]

The models are still insisting on, at the very least, summer returning next week. The GFS/ens are more adamant about bringing in the warmth to New England than the ECMWF/ens (slower/ further west and slightly colder). The GFS brings the heart of the 700mb anomaly on 6/11 with the 850mb anomaly following behind on 6/12 (peaking at 20c+). The 700mb temperatures are marginal, barely breaking 8-9c anywhere. The data also is bringing back the dewpoints in this period too.

Whether or not we get a true EML next week is not as important as the large scale pattern the models continue to advertise into mid-June. It is certainly favorable for additional heat releases from the Intermountain West into the Northeast that may possibly ignite severe weather.

[CoastalWx]

The models are still insisting on, at the very least, summer returning next week. The GFS/ens are more adamant about bringing in the warmth to New England than the ECMWF/ens (slower/ further west and slightly colder). The GFS brings the heart of the 700mb anomaly on 6/11 with the 850mb anomaly following behind on 6/12 (peaking at 20c+). The 700mb temperatures are marginal, barely breaking 8-9c anywhere. The data also is bringing back the dewpoints in this period too.

Whether or not we get a true EML next week is not as important as the large scale pattern the models continue to advertise into mid-June. It is certainly favorable for additional heat releases from the Intermountain West into the Northeast that may possibly ignite severe weather.

I think the pattern favors areas maybe we you are and points west for these complexes right now. It sounds like you're looking for that over the top type deal as well..lol. The euro op hinted at a chance or two so we'll see as always.

[HM]

I think the pattern favors areas maybe we you are and points west for these complexes right now. It sounds like you're looking for that over the top type deal as well..lol. The euro op hinted at a chance or two so we'll see as always.

Well, there is a time next week though that the models bring the ridge pretty far to the East, possibly allowing a more classic Northeast setup than what you are describing. But if this whole process is slower like the ECMWF, then yes it may be more like what you described.

It sure beats the heck out of this week's pattern (although I got a couple nice boomers nearby yesterday).

[CoastalWx]

Well, there is a time next week though that the models bring the ridge pretty far to the East, possibly allowing a more classic Northeast setup than what you are describing. But if this whole process is slower like the ECMWF, then yes it may be more like what you described.

It sure beats the heck out of this week's pattern (although I got a couple nice boomers nearby yesterday).

Yeah there may be a day or two where SNE has a shot as that heat plume gets shunted east. I'm not ruling it out by any means..... maybe Monday Night MCS? It just seems like a day or two of warm to very warm weather here, but it looks like one of those deals where the heat is pinched off to the SW after a brief visit up this way. However, it only takes one good instability burst into NY state and Ontario to set things off.

[HM]

Yeah there may be a day or two where SNE has a shot as that heat plume gets shunted east. I'm not ruling it out by any means..... maybe Monday Night MCS? It just seems like a day or two of warm to very warm weather here, but it looks like one of those deals where the heat is pinched off to the SW after a brief visit up this way. However, it only takes one good instability burst into NY state and Ontario to set things off.

I already miss last week. The end of may / start of June always seems to deliver something, haha.

Overall, I was impressed with both the New England severe and Mid Atlantic severe. The early development of supercells on Friday was a bit of a surprise and quite possibly ruined an even worse outbreak but the amount of tornadoes for the region was noteworthy.

[free_man]

Light at the end of the tunnel is visible, finally. Perhaps even a few severe storms next week.

[radarman]

Pretty crazy to see the SPC mentioning the T word for a day 7 event in the northern plains... Couple extra shots of espresso in their latte this morning?

But that said it does look good of course for the advection of warm air into higher latitudes. My fear for a while now has been the ability of low pressure to dive toward New England in any meaningful way with the ridge axis positioned as modeled. I'll still take my chances with that pattern all day over the alternative.

[weatherwiz]

More cold pool hailers on Friday?