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Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread II


Baroclinic Zone

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I semi enjoyed watching the bigger storms advance towards my neck of the woods and hit that boundry. Try as they could, it was really tough for them to overcome that air.

Would have been nice if it was a few miles east, but I did get a bit of a storm anyway. For central Mass, it might have been a tough call. Where does the boundry set up, and how strong will the storms be...

Scooter, Ryan, etc did a fine job. Tip did well, too.

Blizz, better luck next time
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sunny and warm i wonder how those storms will hold up as they move in

The "best" dynamics are to your west and to my NW but the storms are still entering a somewhat unfavorable environment. 99% chance of no svr but I wouldn't rule out a popup strong storm or two. Wind threat is probably pretty low though, considering there isn't a lot of surface based help. There's a little something popping up W of POU heading right toward my general area so we'll have to see how that holds up, hopefully the bit of sun ahead of the disturbance can help it sustain.

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we'll never know but there could have been a little spin up in Norfolk last night.

This is the classic spin up in SNE that pads out tornado numbers. We had one of these last year in Woodbury, the Bridgeport tornado was a pseudo-version of this, and the Branford/Madison tornado 2 years ago along the shoreline.

post-40-0-01395200-1338425042_thumb.png

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This absolutely sucks...

I haven't received my check for my craigslist postings yet this week, normally it comes on every other Monday but nothing this week. My friend and I were supposed to drive up to NH tomorrow to grab his check but we don't have enough gas...I pray my check comes in tomorrow or otherwise we can scratch going to the skywarn meeting off tomorrow night and we can forget Friday and reads this AFD from LWX

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AS A COLD FRONT FROM

A LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST

ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF

TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE LWX CWA FROM MIDDAY OUT WEST TO THE

EVENING IN THE EAST. THIS IS FAVORABLE TIMING DIURNALLY SO

INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE

STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BRINGING PWATS INTO THE 1.6 TO 1.8

RANGE...SO EXPECT HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.

BULK SHEAR OF 35 KT MEETS THE MINIMUM REQUIREMENT FOR SUPERCELLS BUT

IS NOT SPECTACULAR. HOWEVER...THE JET APPROACHES IN THE EVENING WITH

LWX IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION...SO THE SUPERCELL THREAT LOOKS TO

INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENT. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR /IN BOTH 12Z NAM AND

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH 25 TO 30 KT

OF SFC TO 0.5KM SHEAR. THEREFORE THE WORDING IN THE HWO WILL BE

STRENGTHENED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FLASH FLOODING...DAMAGING

WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

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we'll never know but there could have been a little spin up in Norfolk last night.

This is the classic spin up in SNE that pads out tornado numbers. We had one of these last year in Woodbury, the Bridgeport tornado was a pseudo-version of this, and the Branford/Madison tornado 2 years ago along the shoreline.

I was a couple miles south and saw strong rotation. I posted about it and i think I texted you... I remember posting that there was a pretty apparent meso. I could see it from the hill I was on...wonder if it dropped

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I was a couple miles south and saw strong rotation. I posted about it and i think I texted you... I remember posting that there was a pretty apparent meso. I could see it from the hill I was on...wonder if it dropped

where were you located?

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Uconn torrington campus in the most nw part of torrington. Has an expansive north view toward Canaan and Norfolk.

I doubt you'd be able to see that little mesocyclone from there. Lots of people were reporting rotation yesterday but it was likely scud racing inbound with a shelf cloud racing east with the storm. Gave the appearance (especially near dark) of rotation. This kind of thing embedded with a little low north of a bow apex wasn't going to be seen easily at all.

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I doubt you'd be able to see that little mesocyclone from there. Lots of people were reporting rotation yesterday but it was likely scud racing inbound with a shelf cloud racing east with the storm. Gave the appearance (especially near dark) of rotation. This kind of thing embedded with a little low north of a bow apex wasn't going to be seen easily at all.

I see...I didnt think I was being fooled by the scud clouds but i guess youre right

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I see...I didnt think I was being fooled by the scud clouds but i guess youre right

Yeah the system was pretty much all linear by that point. So there definitely wasn't a low level mesocyclone around besides that little spin up around Norfolk one the storms came down the ridge and became totally outflow dominated.

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I see...I didnt think I was being fooled by the scud clouds but i guess youre right

That stuff is like Fools Gold to many. It gives the appearance of rotation when many times it's like Ryan described, or these turbulent, undulating eddies in the clouds.

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