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Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread II

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

At the gfs house so I'm on the phone, but if we bake in Sun do we have a chance of svr like today? Or way worse params?

The parameters are not like today. It's not very impressive at all to me right now, but there may be some cells around late day. There is better jet support though, than what we had today.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Good light show tonight...but nothing that came close to severe here or my drive down 190 from Leominster. Saw some minor branches down and the usual stuff that comes with 30-40mph gusts. Looks like it was much better in far W MA.

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JJBASHB

JJBASHB

Posted
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Good light show tonight...but nothing that came close to severe here or my drive down 190 from Leominster. Saw some minor branches down and the usual stuff that comes with 30-40mph gusts. Looks like it was much better in far W MA.

Nice to see you back, Will. That stable layer east of the front was a killer. The clouds held on over NORH even after Lowell cleared out. SPC meso analysis had an easterly fetch centered from the Atlantic ocean south of Maine to just east of Keene. I saw 30-40mph earlier up in Keene. ~20 mph as the line came through here. It looked promising with 60 dbz+ and weak embedded rotation just west of Winchendon but it fell apart quickly.

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

Posted
Posted

Around 60 or so there in AK?

Been stuck in the 50's mostly. Sunny the last few days though, and the mountains are incredible!! Just been exploring the city more in the last few days, but we're planning out the rest of the summer. Got a couple of kayaking trips, rock and ice climbing, and tons of hiking ... I mean, there are 5k+ peaks 12 miles down the road!!

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ski MRG

ski MRG

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Been stuck in the 50's mostly. Sunny the last few days though, and the mountains are incredible!! Just been exploring the city more in the last few days, but we're planning out the rest of the summer. Got a couple of kayaking trips, rock and ice climbing, and tons of hiking ... I mean, there are 5k+ peaks 12 miles down the road!!

Take a ride out on the Kenai peninsula, maybe out to Seward. So awesome everywhere. Have fun, I'm so happy you're getting to stay for an extended period. Pics please.

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Allenson

Allenson

Posted
Posted

Pretty wild day up here yesterday. Continuous thunder and lightning (hours of it, really) and downpours were the main flavors here. The event total for rain was 2.73" and lots of gullying on the dirt roads and driveways, but the cool air that remained in place all day seemed to spare us any real nasty stuff. No strong winds and no hail that I saw.

BTV's storm report page shows three house fires though, due to lightning--Barre, Cabot & Marshfield. Yikes.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Well that's why I mentioned ern NY state into Wrn MA. If I didn't....I just did. Just some sct stuff...not like wide spread line or anything.

Oh OK thought you mean"t like ya know WCT. Kev said yesterday he was on the eastern fringe of WCT. That made me laugh. Two years in a row I have seen some pretty fantastic mammatus from the ball fields at IJD. spectacular structure to those storms last night as they collapsed.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Oh OK thought you mean"t like ya know WCT. Kev said yesterday he was on the eastern fringe of WCT. That made me laugh. Two years in a row I have seen some pretty fantastic mammatus from the ball fields at IJD. spectacular structure to those storms last night as they collapsed.

Well wrn CT too..especially NW CT. Just something to watch anyways. Clouds suck right now.

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

I am getting very interested in the Mid Atlantic's turn on Friday. This was the last wave of 2 that caught our attention in the medium to long range. As Paul pointed out, this is more like a late September / October event.

The juxtaposition of strong low-mid level winds, strong divergence aloft and warm sector advection on the data right now is awesome and I can see why the SPC already went 30%. The 00z/06z GFS is the slowest of solutions with the ECMWF suite, UKMET and even the NAM to a degree coming in faster.

The amount of low level shear, strong theta-e advection and strong kinematics make me think low topped supercells in 1 or 2 lines will be possible. The SPC's 30% risk area is perfect right now with what the data is showing.

I always get nervous with waves that are maturing and then occluding as the trough goes negative. Unfortunately in the real world, they don't behave like proper Rossby Wave Theory and our modeling can mishandle the timing/placement of these.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I am getting very interested in the Mid Atlantic's turn on Friday. This was the last wave of 2 that caught our attention in the medium to long range. As Paul pointed out, this is more like a late September / October event.

The juxtaposition of strong low-mid level winds, strong divergence aloft and warm sector advection on the data right now is awesome and I can see why the SPC already went 30%. The 00z/06z GFS is the slowest of solutions with the ECMWF suite, UKMET and even the NAM to a degree coming in faster.

The amount of low level shear, strong theta-e advection and strong kinematics make me think low topped supercells in 1 or 2 lines will be possible. The SPC's 30% risk area is perfect right now with what the data is showing.

I always get nervous with waves that are maturing and then occluding as the trough goes negative. Unfortunately in the real world, they don't behave like proper Rossby Wave Theory and our modeling can mishandle the timing/placement of these.

Yeah that's all you guys. Deep trough with good low level SSE flow and strong SW winds aloft. I guess instability is the big question..but with such good shear and probably low LCLs...I'm sure a few storms will be low topped SUPs like you mentioned.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

I am getting very interested in the Mid Atlantic's turn on Friday. This was the last wave of 2 that caught our attention in the medium to long range. As Paul pointed out, this is more like a late September / October event.

The juxtaposition of strong low-mid level winds, strong divergence aloft and warm sector advection on the data right now is awesome and I can see why the SPC already went 30%. The 00z/06z GFS is the slowest of solutions with the ECMWF suite, UKMET and even the NAM to a degree coming in faster.

The amount of low level shear, strong theta-e advection and strong kinematics make me think low topped supercells in 1 or 2 lines will be possible. The SPC's 30% risk area is perfect right now with what the data is showing.

I always get nervous with waves that are maturing and then occluding as the trough goes negative. Unfortunately in the real world, they don't behave like proper Rossby Wave Theory and our modeling can mishandle the timing/placement of these.

I think I'll be making my way south of Friday :whistle:

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