stormspotterlive Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Instability and moisture levels are a good bit Higher today ahead of this front that is shown on H5 right now moving south. Already some cumulus cloud action starting up out there so capping is breaking. As I am typing this about to say we will get upgraded to a slight risk they say a watch is now likely. I really think we could see a decent line going this afternoon but not fully certain where the best threat for severe storms will be given the tendency of east of I95 doing much better in recent weeks. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1332.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 don't disagree completely but my guess is that the line is mostly scattered to broken...will be gaps where storms don't form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Cape around the area is in the 2000-3000 range with LI in the -5 to -7 range so far. Hail may be a big issue, the lapse rates are pretty solid. Mid level laopse rates are increasing to 7 or better while the low level lapse rates are 8 plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 slight risk for the region...15 on wind and hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 just looking at the lapse rates i thyink hail may be more pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 So this kinda caught me off guard. (Not even new either, surprised no one posted it.) MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1332 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...THE NORTHEAST/UPPER MID-ATLANTIC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY VALID 011611Z - 011715Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK WITH THE 1630Z D1 OUTLOOK AND WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE CONSIDERED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DISCUSSION...CU HAS INITIATED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN NY INTO CNTRL PA ALONG A WEAK LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE BENEATH THE INFLUENCE OF SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. 12Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE ALONG WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE A PRONOUNCED SIGNAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...LEADING TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT POTENTIALLY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM CENTERED TOWARDS THE HUDSON VALLEY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...WHICH IS YIELDING MODERATE BUOYANCY /INCREASING WITH SRN EXTENT/ PER MODIFIED 12Z IAD/OKX RAOBS. MODERATELY STRONG NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZING UPDRAFTS WITH THREATS OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 07/01/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 While ML LR's are pretty good, it's so hot that once again moisture mixing out is an issue (the 16z RAP says that we're essentially mixed out in Philly by 21z) which will probably mitigate the severe hail threat. Not that there won't be hail, but ML LR's aren't the only important factor. Need to consider LCL's too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al79philly Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 How worried should we be about the line around Chicago? I have no interest in experiencing what DC got Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 OT, but... ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN LAKE...COOK...DUPAGE...NORTHWESTERN WILL...NORTHEASTERN KENDALL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANE COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT... AT 1229 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DES PLAINES TO MAYWOOD TO WESTERN SPRINGS TO WOODRIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. Wow! I don't think I've ever seen greater than 80 in a warning text before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Watch issued to the North and east of philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 444 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 135 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CONNECTICUT NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SOUTHEAST NEW YORK EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL 800 PM EDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF POUGHKEEPSIE NEW YORK TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TRENTON NEW JERSEY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 442...WW 443... DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM SE NY INTO ERN PA/NRN NJ...AND STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD/ESEWD ACROSS CT/LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO 1500-2000 J/KG WITH SURFACE HEATING...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29030. ...THOMPSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al79philly Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 OT, but... ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN LAKE...COOK...DUPAGE...NORTHWESTERN WILL...NORTHEASTERN KENDALL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANE COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT... AT 1229 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DES PLAINES TO MAYWOOD TO WESTERN SPRINGS TO WOODRIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. Wow! I don't think I've ever seen greater than 80 in a warning text before. Per Weather Channel, 91 mph reported gusts with roof and tree damage in IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 OT, but... ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN LAKE...COOK...DUPAGE...NORTHWESTERN WILL...NORTHEASTERN KENDALL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANE COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT... AT 1229 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DES PLAINES TO MAYWOOD TO WESTERN SPRINGS TO WOODRIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. Wow! I don't think I've ever seen greater than 80 in a warning text before. Damn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 How worried should we be about the line around Chicago? I have no interest in experiencing what DC got Friday night. Not very. Storm motion vectors over the Midwest are southeastward, which is why the eastern Carolinas are where SPC thinks this complex might end up. Also, this go around the storms are getting a later start than they did on Friday, and even then on Friday they moved ridiculously fast. I'd say not too worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al79philly Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Not very. Storm motion vectors over the Midwest are southeastward, which is why the eastern Carolinas are where SPC thinks this complex might end up. Also, this go around the storms are getting a later start than they did on Friday, and even then on Friday they moved ridiculously fast. I'd say not too worried. Cool thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 if anything forms storm wise look near Lebanon and Lancaster...CCX doppler is showing some potential for something to fire along Blue Mountain in a bit. http://radar.weather...ct=N0R&loop=yes another spot looks like the poconos...something looks to be firing up east of Scranton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Hoping we see some good storms out my way. Seems pretty humid out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Watches everywhere but here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Watches everywhere but here.... There isn't a watch for most of the Mid Atlantic, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1338 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND TO THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444... VALID 011925Z - 012100Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT PERSISTS AND IS DEVELOPING N/EWD OF WW 444 IN MA/RI. ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR SPATIALLY TO WARRANT A NEW WW...IT COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED. DISCUSSION...GREATEST CLUSTERING OF TSTMS HAS OCCURRED ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND TO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW OF THESE HAVE EXHIBITED SUPERCELL CHARACTER AND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN MOST OF MA OUTSIDE OF CAPE COD SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN SEVERE AS IT SHIFTS JUST N/E OF WW 444. FARTHER SW...TSTMS HAVE FAILED TO INITIATE S OF NERN PA THUS FAR ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. BUT WITH THE CU FIELD PERSISTING...CONTINUED HEATING WITH MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS BY EARLY EVENING. ..GRAMS.. 07/01/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 looks like this is a NYC, NNJ, SNE special based on where things are at now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley has declared liberal leave for all non-essential state employees on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Storm trying to develop in eastern Lanco is visible here. Building nicely with anvil starting to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Storm trying to develop in eastern Lanco is visible here. Building nicely with anvil starting to develop. Might come close enough to me here in Southern Delco to get some distant lightning or some spider lightning. Keeping an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 I can see the tops of the cells between Lancaster and Wilmington from my place in MD, been watching them for the last 20 minutes, looking healthy and growing vertical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Video was shot 2 blocks from my house, and has got my firehouse in it. http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?section=news/local&id=8720877 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXTransplant Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Anybody think that mess in OH makes it over this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Anybody think that mess in OH makes it over this way? i doubt it, instability is falling off pretty good. i would think best shot is del and eastern shore for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Anybody think that mess in OH makes it over this way? I'm not optimistic, although the modeling earlier this week had shown an MCS splitting and the northern part heading east which seems to be what's happening as it gets into western PA. I don't know a heckuva lot about derecho's but it strikes me that the way they set up along boudaries would preclude both parts of a split staying strong. But I'd like to hear from an expert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I'm really hoping the people that got hammered in South jersey and elsewhere don't get it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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