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SE PA/Mt. Holly severe threats..


NaoPos

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Damn impressive storms last night, that's for sure! Some pretty intense winds reported from mesonet sites...

http://raws.wrh.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/roman/raws_ca_monitor.cgi?rawsflag=290&state=PHI&type=0&orderby=e&day1=3&month1=1&year1=2012&hour1=21&timeobs=12

72 mph - Ship John Shoal (NOS-PORTS)

72 mph - Brandywine Shl (NOS-PORTS)

71 mph - Cape May (NOS-PORTS)

69 mph - Indian River Inlet (DEDOT)

67 mph - Millville Municipal Airport (NWS/FAA)

66 mph - US-1 and Appoquinimink River (DEDOT)

66 mph - Tolchester (NOS-PORTS)

64 mph - Absecon Channel (HADS)

64 mph - Rt. 1 and EOC Smyrna (DEDOT)

64 mph - Rt. 1 and 12 (DEDOT)

63 mph - Lewes (NOS-PORTS)

62 mph - Upper Deerfield (NJNET)

59 mph - Rt. 113 and 16 Ellendale (DEDOT)

59 mph - Atlantic City International Airport (NWS/FAA)

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Not trying to stir the pot....but it just seem last night was poorly forcast....even dca did not pull the trigger on the storm until right before....i had no idea it was suppose to get that far north....from the looks at radar at 11pm, did not seem it

Modeling wasnt great but the nam from thu night 0z did show some storms moving through DC and the Delmarva...it did track a bit north of modeling.

That said, now casting was not the greatest last night.

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If i had to make a call on this things strength, i dont think it will come close to what we aw last night. The amount of instability is a good bit less than what it was yesterday, with cape values over 4000 and LI over -9

Though mesoanalysis projections have some pockets of 4000 showing up down this way later on.

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Not much upstream instability today. Probably will need some storms to fire nearby.

There's -4 LI in Western PA. It's not "perfect" but the atmosphere's got enough juice to have something fire...probably not as potent as yesterday but the atmosphere's got enough pop to get something going.

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Not beating up on the NWS here but I do think it would make sense to move the chance pops up to Philly and put Wilmington-AC south at 60% or higher. This system has got legs and probably makes it to the coast in some capacity. Watching those storms continue to pop out in Southern PA I think they should've went with the chance pops now...I have a feeling they will be updating their AFD again in a while.

wow updated zones and it's still 20% pops for SNJ and Wilmington.

Not trying to stir the pot....but it just seem last night was poorly forcast....even dca did not pull the trigger on the storm until right before....i had no idea it was suppose to get that far north....from the looks at radar at 11pm, did not seem it

:(

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:(

sorry bro...you guys normally kick a-- and take names...last night wasn't good for a lot of us...

I got a bit worried about South Jersey and Delaware when dewps started to pool down there ahead of the line -- some of the #'s coming out ahead of that derecho were pretty oppressive for here (76 at PHL at 10 PM, mid 70's in much of DE and SNJ).

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sorry bro...you guys normally kick a-- and take names...last night wasn't good for a lot of us...

I got a bit worried about South Jersey and Delaware when dewps started to pool down there ahead of the line -- some of the #'s coming out ahead of that derecho were pretty oppressive for here (76 at PHL at 10 PM, mid 70's in much of DE and SNJ).

The Corfidi vectors had the mcs moving w-e, which it did in reality. It looked like everything was going according "to plan" as the gust front finally flew away from the convection in Delmarva, but not totally as it never got away from the north of Baltimore cell, instead it formed a convergent conveyer belt for those mid 70s dew points into it and that cell was the one that went to town from Cecil to Atlantic Counties. (Don't know if you can see it on a KDOX loop). The gust front was nasty enough as the 70-80 mph winds took no prisoners either.

Otherwise :(

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The Corfidi vectors had the mcs moving w-e, which it did in reality. It looked like everything was going according "to plan" as the gust front finally flew away from the convection in Delmarva, but not totally as it never got away from the north of Baltimore cell, instead it formed a convergent conveyer belt for those mid 70s dew points into it and that cell was the one that went to town from Cecil to Atlantic Counties. (Don't know if you can see it on a KDOX loop). The gust front was nasty enough as the 70-80 mph winds took no prisoners either.

Otherwise :(

If the derecho had moved about 30 miles south everything would have looked a good bit better. :(

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That cell that eventually made it into Atlantic County was horrible. It began around 12:30 AM and got really bad around 1:15-2:30. I have never seen so much lightning in my life. I would estimate it at maybe 3-4 flashes per second, continuous. The rain was coming down so heavy at times that I thought for sure it was hailing, but never officially saw any. The one saving grace, at least for me was that the thunder itself wasn't all that impressive. I would say that most of the lightning was cloud to cloud, and while there were a few close strikes, we only had maybe 2 or 3 fairly loud bangs. We lost power around 2:15 and we decided to pack up and head home because of it. They aren't expecting the power company to fix things for 6-10 days. Driving around the rest of Pomona it looked like a war zone. By far top 3 worst storms I have ever seen in my life, and riding it out at night in an RV surrounded by trees made it worse.

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That cell that eventually made it into Atlantic County was horrible. It began around 12:30 AM and got really bad around 1:15-2:30. I have never seen so much lightning in my life. I would estimate it at maybe 3-4 flashes per second, continuous. The rain was coming down so heavy at times that I thought for sure it was hailing, but never officially saw any. The one saving grace, at least for me was that the thunder itself wasn't all that impressive. I would say that most of the lightning was cloud to cloud, and while there were a few close strikes, we only had maybe 2 or 3 fairly loud bangs. We lost power around 2:15 and we decided to pack up and head home because of it. They aren't expecting the power company to fix things for 6-10 days. Driving around the rest of Pomona it looked like a war zone. By far top 3 worst storms I have ever seen in my life, and riding it out at night in an RV surrounded by trees made it worse.

Sounds like quite a night. :yikes:

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So a tree fell through my folks house outside DC, crushed one of their cars. Fortunately they weren't there. The tree was a huge oak, split in half about half way up. Must have been one helluva storm.

Widespread gusts of 70-80 mph will do that.

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So, drove down the shore last night. Went 55-47. 1 ten mile stretch of 47 near Millville had a ton of trees on the shoulder. I think it was near Ryan when he got caught up in it. 1 thing to notice, and not to sound too cliche, but you could def smell a lot of fresh pine. I remember smelling it back June 24th,2010. You just know that smell.

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So, drove down the shore last night. Went 55-47. 1 ten mile stretch of 47 near Millville had a ton of trees on the shoulder. I think it was near Ryan when he got caught up in it. 1 thing to notice, and not to sound too cliche, but you could def smell a lot of fresh pine. I remember smelling it back June 24th,2010. You just know that smell.

yup, i remember that and especially down in that area in the pine barrens.

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look out for some afternoon and evening storm from chester county to reading to avo on east. Should originate up in the pocs over to nyc and push south. In response to a high pressure building in and a northerly to northeast flow that will set up on monday that will bring less humid conditions.

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