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SE PA/Mt. Holly severe threats..


NaoPos

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Based on latest 00z NMM looks like the spc would split the higher probs to breezewood through dc for the first MCS it has and Northwest pa through the Poconos. However based on today's Derecho almost would not be surprised if they still mention that they are uncertain. We are dealing with a very complex set up for tomorrow evening someone is going to get hit hard while others may not at all.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/COMPRAD4_0z/rloop.html

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Power out in Port Republic, NE of KACY. Been out about 40 minutes now. The lightning and thunder outside remains incessant, although the "worst" is clearly past. Have never seen near an hour straight of lightning before, Mother Nature wins this round.

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SPC going south for Saturday now. Will see if this is the same at the end of the day or if we repeat today on a more north track

day1otlk_1200.gif

day1probotlk_1200_wind.gif

...MID MS VALLEY TO COASTAL SRN MID-ATLC AND TIDEWATER REGIONS...

ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS OF SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN THIS PERIOD

WITHIN CONVECTIVELY ALTERED BAROCLINIC ZONE...FOLLOWING RELATED

INSTABILITY/THETAE GRADIENT ESEWD WHILE POTENTIALLY GROWING UPSCALE.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT-SVR

GUSTS POSSIBLE WHERE COLD POOL CAN BECOME WELL-ORGANIZED BEHIND

LEADING COMPLEX.

THOUGH POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THIS CORRIDOR...MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR

SUCH UPSCALE MCS EVOLUTION APPEARS TO BE FROM OH-MD. WHILE

PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN BOOSTED SOMEWHAT FROM DAY-2 OUTLOOK...TWO

MAJOR UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE GREATER UNCONDITIONAL SVR RISK ATTM.

FIRST IS LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER OH-E COAST

CORRIDOR...WHICH OF COURSE WILL DICTATE POSITIONING OF ANY

SUBSEQUENT UPSCALE GROWTH. SECOND...AND AT LEAST AS IMPORTANT...IS

DAMAGE DONE TO MOISTURE FIELD BY PRIOR/DERECHO-PRODUCING MCS. THAT

CONVECTION HAS GREATLY REDUCED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS

CORRIDOR FROM OH-MD. IN FACT...ACCOMPANYING STG PRESSURE

PERTURBATION AND GUST FRONT ARE STILL MOVING SWD ACROSS MOST OF NC

AS OF THIS WRITING...DROPPING SFC DEW POINTS FROM 70S TO LOWER

60S/UPPER 50S RANGE. THIS EFFECT WILL BE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND

MUTED WITH SWD EXTENT...BUT SETS UP INCREASINGLY LONG FETCH OF

MOISTURE RETURN FOR POTENTIAL EVENT TODAY. THIS MOISTURE RETURN MAY

EMANATE FROM

1. NEAR-SFC ADVECTION NNEWD FROM CAROLINAS TO ERN VA AND DELMARVA

AREA...AND/OR

2. MORE WLY FLOW COMPONENT WITH RELATED ADVECTION FROM OH VALLEY

INTO APPALACHIANS...LEADING TO THETAE INCREASE E OF MTNS THROUGH

DOWNWARD MIXING AND SFC DIABATIC HEATING.

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SPC going south for Saturday now. Will see if this is the same at the end of the day or if we repeat today on a more north track

day1otlk_1200.gif

day1probotlk_1200_wind.gif

...MID MS VALLEY TO COASTAL SRN MID-ATLC AND TIDEWATER REGIONS...

ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS OF SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN THIS PERIOD

WITHIN CONVECTIVELY ALTERED BAROCLINIC ZONE...FOLLOWING RELATED

INSTABILITY/THETAE GRADIENT ESEWD WHILE POTENTIALLY GROWING UPSCALE.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT-SVR

GUSTS POSSIBLE WHERE COLD POOL CAN BECOME WELL-ORGANIZED BEHIND

LEADING COMPLEX.

THOUGH POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THIS CORRIDOR...MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR

SUCH UPSCALE MCS EVOLUTION APPEARS TO BE FROM OH-MD. WHILE

PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN BOOSTED SOMEWHAT FROM DAY-2 OUTLOOK...TWO

MAJOR UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE GREATER UNCONDITIONAL SVR RISK ATTM.

FIRST IS LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER OH-E COAST

CORRIDOR...WHICH OF COURSE WILL DICTATE POSITIONING OF ANY

SUBSEQUENT UPSCALE GROWTH. SECOND...AND AT LEAST AS IMPORTANT...IS

DAMAGE DONE TO MOISTURE FIELD BY PRIOR/DERECHO-PRODUCING MCS. THAT

CONVECTION HAS GREATLY REDUCED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS

CORRIDOR FROM OH-MD. IN FACT...ACCOMPANYING STG PRESSURE

PERTURBATION AND GUST FRONT ARE STILL MOVING SWD ACROSS MOST OF NC

AS OF THIS WRITING...DROPPING SFC DEW POINTS FROM 70S TO LOWER

60S/UPPER 50S RANGE. THIS EFFECT WILL BE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND

MUTED WITH SWD EXTENT...BUT SETS UP INCREASINGLY LONG FETCH OF

MOISTURE RETURN FOR POTENTIAL EVENT TODAY. THIS MOISTURE RETURN MAY

EMANATE FROM

1. NEAR-SFC ADVECTION NNEWD FROM CAROLINAS TO ERN VA AND DELMARVA

AREA...AND/OR

2. MORE WLY FLOW COMPONENT WITH RELATED ADVECTION FROM OH VALLEY

INTO APPALACHIANS...LEADING TO THETAE INCREASE E OF MTNS THROUGH

DOWNWARD MIXING AND SFC DIABATIC HEATING.

Good, let it go south, we've got enough damage to last a year.

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looking at what's back over western ohio this morning I'm going to say that anything will develop early this afternoon in PA off of that and move through the Philly and south realm after 4 PM...this looks like it may outrun the NAM's timing (which isn't surprising...the derecho was a bit faster than the models).

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Looks like a hurricane came through down here, worst storm in years. We probably won't have power for days. I'll be cutting trees up half of that time.

I heard on the news this morning that a couple of kids camping with their families were killed last night by falling trees. Any update on the boy scout that bri mentioned last night? I know you had a busy night, but wasn't sure if you heard anything...

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Talked to Ryan.. Said in a sommersville /point?? (his phone was cutting out), a boy scout camping trip had a kid trapped under a tree in cardiac arrest. He said leaves completely plastered the roads, power out everywhere, trees and wires down. Sounds like they def got raked. He's safe, making his way back down to the firehouse.

What a shame..

http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/breaking/Tree-Falls-Kills-Two-Boys-Camping-New-Jersey-Parvin-State-Park-160940735.html

"A 40-foot pine tree snapped and fell overnight, killing two little boys who were camping in Parvin State Park in Salem County, New Jersey.

The boys, ages 2 and 7, are related, police tell NBC10."

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day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif

...OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG OUTFLOW

BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING OH MCS AS IT EMERGES FROM THE

CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY. HERE...UPLIFT ALONG THE

RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/GUST FRONT WILL COINCIDE WITH DEEPER-LAYER

FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MCV TO PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN TSTMS WITHIN A

MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1500-3000

J/KG. KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FEATURE A UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY

WIND FIELD WITH 50-60 KT FLOW POSSIBLE IN THE 600-500-MB LAYER PER

12Z UPSTREAM SOUNDING AT WILMINGTON OH. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL WILL

EXIST FOR THE EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER BOW ECHO SYSTEM CAPABLE OF

POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DELMARVA

INTO CNTRL/ERN NC.

MEANWHILE...A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED OVER

SERN IA...APPARENTLY FORCED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING

SEWD THROUGH SRN MN/NRN IA. THOUGH NOT WELL RESOLVED BY THE

MODELS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE STORMS COULD INTENSIFY BY LATE

MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF E-CNTRL IL/W-CNTRL INDIANA.

WHILE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT NEARLY AS UNSTABLE AS FRIDAY...12Z

SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY

/I.E. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-3000 J PER KG/ IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST

VERTICAL SHEAR. AS SUCH...EVOLUTION OF AN ADDITIONAL

FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS/BOW ECHO IS POSSIBLE WITH A HEIGHTENED RISK

FOR DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING EWD TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY. DUE TO

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO...ONLY BASELINE SLIGHT RISK

PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.

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What a shame..

http://www.nbcphilad...-160940735.html

"A 40-foot pine tree snapped and fell overnight, killing two little boys who were camping in Parvin State Park in Salem County, New Jersey.

The boys, ages 2 and 7, are related, police tell NBC10."

I asked about this a few posts above, is this the same what ryan was referring to last night?

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Amazing how severe weather can change mindsets. Most of us cheer on severe snowstorms or thunderstorms and want to see something

"spectacular" occur, but many times afterwards if it strikes and is disruptive we have a change of mind.

I remember how "awesome" one of the blizzards was a few years back, til I lost power and the temperature in the house fell to 50 degrees. Not cool.

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Amazing how severe weather can change mindsets. Most of us cheer on severe snowstorms or thunderstorms and want to see something

"spectacular" occur, but many times afterwards if it strikes and is disruptive we have a change of mind.

I remember how "awesome" one of the blizzards was a few years back, til I lost power and the temperature in the house fell to 50 degrees. Not cool.

Well we all want to see these events because they are so amazing to watch, but nobody wants to see the aftermath of it thats for sure. But I agree it really give you a jolt back to reality that storms this powerful ultimately are not good to watch in high population areas like ours. My mom is still shaken up from the 6/24/10 storms. Just have to hope for today, being a holiday weekend, that people keep an eye to the sky and be smart.

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Amazing how severe weather can change mindsets. Most of us cheer on severe snowstorms or thunderstorms and want to see something

"spectacular" occur, but many times afterwards if it strikes and is disruptive we have a change of mind.

I remember how "awesome" one of the blizzards was a few years back, til I lost power and the temperature in the house fell to 50 degrees. Not cool.

Never have been a fan of derechos...they suck...been through enough of them in the Midwest to know they mean serious business.

If they were rolling over nothing but open country and disrupting empty wasteland of real estate they wouldn't be so bad...

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The house here in Sea Isle City was shaking in the wind . The main part of the storm was the wind and lightning but only .05" of rain. The wind was the story....highest gust was 52mph out of the SW on the weather station just after 1am - that is the highest gust I have recorded since it has been up and running since November.

Paul

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for today, gotta watch development in south central pa. A pretty strong vorticity will be moving through from a pit to wilmington line. So i would say this will prob result in another tpk on south event. Thats where you can expect another line to develop. Not sure its going to be anything like yesterday and last night tho.

Here are the h5 maps off the RAP showing this piece of vorticity

RAP_255_2012063013_F06_RELV_500_MB.png

RAP_255_2012063013_F08_RELV_500_MB.png

RAP_255_2012063013_F12_RELV_500_MB.png

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Not trying to stir the pot....but it just seem last night was poorly forcast....even dca did not pull the trigger on the storm until right before....i had no idea it was suppose to get that far north....from the looks at radar at 11pm, did not seem it

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