MGorse Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Insane! This is Dayton, OH: KDAY 292026Z 35042G71KT 2 1/2SM R06L/6000VP6000FT -RA BR FEW044 BKN055 BKN070 20/18 A2986 RMK AO2 PK WND 34071/2018 WSHFT 2008 RAB18 P0000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 DT is aleeting for tomorrow night, just figured I'd post it. **ALERT *** ALERT *** SEVERE T-STORM CLUSTER / DERECHO is LIKELY to form Saturday afternoon in western PA in and around PIT ...race ESE into s central and se PA s NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Insane! This is Dayton, OH: KDAY 292026Z 35042G71KT 2 1/2SM R06L/6000VP6000FT -RA BR FEW044 BKN055 BKN070 20/18 A2986 RMK AO2 PK WND 34071/2018 WSHFT 2008 RAB18 P0000 That is crazy! I thought 70 mph was extreme. I can't imagine what that looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Flashbacks to the Labor Day Derecho of 1998. (those IN, OH obs.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Was scanning through reports from today and found this. 1854 91 5 SW FORT WAYNE ALLEN IN 4098 8519 MEASURED 91 MPH GUST AT FORT WAYNE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (IWX) As well as multiple 80+ reports. Is this possible tomorrow? If so not interested although I did borrow a digital camera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS AN MCS DEVELOPS. THE PRECISE TRACK IS UNCERTAIN...SO WILL DEFER A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER PROBS TO LATER OUTLOOK UPDATES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCLUDE PITTSBURGH...PHILADELPHIA AND WASHINGTON D.C. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 not an expert on mcs's, frankly don't know much about them. But looking at the 12z nam and comparing it to the 18z nam i have come up with 2 things that should be keyed on in future runs.. first is the positioning and trach of the h5 vort max. We want that over or north of chicago and track into southern mich over northern ohio. 2nd is the hgts along the east coast. These mcs's ride around the heat bubble, also called the ring of fire. Most of the time they take a nw to se track. Higher hgts will play a role in the track. Because it shifts the outer boundry one way or another,.You can see on the 6z,12z, and 18z nam the postioning of the hgt lines and the location of the h5 vort energy. 6z 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 watch out possibly tonight for pa tpk on south, and deff del and southern jerz. RAP and HRRR are sliding a h5 vort over the area...basically its that area in sw pa that meso low like feature by pit...models bring that east to ese and building t storms as it comes. Cape and LI are still very unstable. The HRRR has been hit or miss this season so take with a grain of salt. But their does look to be a piece of energy rotating through,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Storms firing in S Central Pa will track further north than MCS if they hold together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 watch out possibly tonight for pa tpk on south, and deff del and southern jerz. RAP and HRRR are sliding a h5 vort over the area...basically its that area in sw pa that meso low like feature by pit...models bring that east to ese and building t storms as it comes. Cape and LI are still very unstable. The HRRR has been hit or miss this season so take with a grain of salt. But their does look to be a piece of energy rotating through,. Thats around Midnight time frame right Tom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Watch those cells in south central pa. There is a portion of the MCS racing northeast towards them in west Virginia once they merge it will be like dynamite going off any fuse with the MCS has had a history of exploding today. Also need to pay close attention as this system gets closer they like to find the stronger vertical shear values and feed on them if and when available so some of the stronger convection may spiral up this way. Time will tell but I think odds are for us seeing a watch Trenton area on south. Yes I did say Trenton area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Watch those cells in south central pa. there is a portion of the MCS racing northeast towards them once they merge it will be like dynamite going off any fuse with the MCS has had a history of exploding today. Also need to pay close attention as this system gets closer they like to find the stronger vertical shear values and feed on them if and when available so some of the stronger convection may spiral up this way. Time will tell but I think odds are for us seeing a watch Trenton area on south. Yes I did say Trenton area. That is Bold but i can see it especially with the HRRR and RAP showing the extra vortmax coming overhead here in SE PA could be in for a surprise treat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 That is Bold but i can see it especially with the HRRR and RAP showing the extra vortmax coming overhead here in SE PA could be in for a surprise treat? It is very well possible. We have stronger vertical shear up here and clouds moving in which should hold down instability for the time being going to be a close call and now casting for sure but wherever the merge happens there will be a rather quick explosion of severe storms and strong winds. it might even speed up our portion of the MCS Right now I am thinking it will happen somewhere between Harrisburg and Chester county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Ridiculous amount of wind reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Watch those cells in south central pa. There is a portion of the MCS racing northeast towards them in west Virginia once they merge it will be like dynamite going off any fuse with the MCS has had a history of exploding today. Also need to pay close attention as this system gets closer they like to find the stronger vertical shear values and feed on them if and when available so some of the stronger convection may spiral up this way. Time will tell but I think odds are for us seeing a watch Trenton area on south. Yes I did say Trenton area. Philly south yes...Trenton is probably pushing it. edit: probably south of the PA turnpike....which would be south of Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 It is very well possible. We have stronger vertical shear up here and clouds moving in which should hold down instability for the time being going to be a close call and now casting for sure but wherever the merge happens there will be a rather quick explosion of severe storms and strong winds. it might even speed up our portion of the MCS Right now I am thinking it will happen somewhere between Harrisburg and Chester county. You can see the Northern Edge actually starting to speedup and grow in storms and generate storms further east. This is out by Pittsburgh, as i am seeing the northern part is growing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 You can see the Northern Edge actually starting to speedup and grow in storms and generate storms further east. This is out by Pittsburgh, as i am seeing the northern part is growing now. If this process continues and it holds up like this would be somewhat of a pounding threat to go along with any hail or wind threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 If this process continues and it holds up like this would be somewhat of a pounding threat to go along with any hail or wind threat. Wouldn't hail or wind be a "pounding"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Wouldn't hail or wind be a "pounding"? HA! yes it would be pounding meant to say ponding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 You can see on KCCX radar that the stuff in south central pa is growing and lifting a bit more ENE now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Not beating up on the NWS here but I do think it would make sense to move the chance pops up to Philly and put Wilmington-AC south at 60% or higher. This system has got legs and probably makes it to the coast in some capacity. Watching those storms continue to pop out in Southern PA I think they should've went with the chance pops now...I have a feeling they will be updating their AFD again in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 The SPC moved the general risk area north of the Lehigh Valley, I doubt I'll see anything here but it could mean a more positive outlook for people near the turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Not beating up on the NWS here but I do think it would make sense to move the chance pops up to Philly and put Wilmington-AC south at 60% or higher. This system has got legs and probably makes it to the coast in some capacity. Watching those storms continue to pop out in Southern PA I think they should've went with the chance pops now...I have a feeling they will be updating their AFD again in a while. I agree. It looks like the storms in the northern part of the complex want to run more in an easterly direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 I agree. It looks like the storms in the northern part of the complex want to run more in an easterly direction. Yes and if they keep on growing as they are showing even I here in Southern Delco might have some fun in filming more lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Engine2211 Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Is there a chance this will make it into southwestern Burlington County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 watch until 2 am for DE and South NJ (Gloucester and Atlantic counties on south) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 wow updated zones and it's still 20% pops for SNJ and Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Cells entering Lancaster Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Impressive line just driving through central and eastern Maryland. Seeing lots of rotation in these cells, but large hail and wind threat is pretty high tonight. Pretty amazing to see how we're seeing the record heat and this severe weather. Just so many warnings being issued. Back to cells of interest. Watching two cells trying tto take over down near York and Lancaster county. Interesting how some of these cells are movving in a east northeast direction. I would say the severe threat would be say from Lancaster county, trhough Delaware, Philadelphia and east from Camden County and points south. Looks like these cells are hail producers as well. Just a side note, some of the tops and I'm look from KDIX radar, up to 60,000.. Wow.. What a night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Lightning to the distant W + NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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