NaoPos Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 He's seeing it, I woke him up, lol. aww man, that's solo cute. Did you rub his shoulder? ,!!!!! Anyhow, day 2 slight risk with a 15% hatched area ...OH VALLEY THROUGH MID ATLANTIC... MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES SATURDAY. QUASISTATIONARY FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. EXPANSIVE EML PLUME HAS ALREADY ADVECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND RESERVOIR OF STRONG INSTABILITY /3000+ MLCAPE/ WILL LIKELY EXIST WHERE THE NRN FRINGE OF EML OVERLAPS THE MOIST AXIS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND INTENSIFY AS THEY ADVANCE SEWD. BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND VERY LARGE HAIL. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING STORM COVERAGE DUE TO POTENTIAL CAPPING ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH EML. AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE THESE CONCERNS HAVE BEEN MITIGATED. Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Best lightning I've seen in years, hands down. Gotta be over 100 bolts I've counted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 aww man, that's solo cute. Did you rub his shoulder? ,!!!!! Anyhow, day 2 slight risk with a 15% hatched area ...OH VALLEY THROUGH MID ATLANTIC... MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES SATURDAY. QUASISTATIONARY FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. EXPANSIVE EML PLUME HAS ALREADY ADVECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND RESERVOIR OF STRONG INSTABILITY /3000+ MLCAPE/ WILL LIKELY EXIST WHERE THE NRN FRINGE OF EML OVERLAPS THE MOIST AXIS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND INTENSIFY AS THEY ADVANCE SEWD. BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND VERY LARGE HAIL. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING STORM COVERAGE DUE TO POTENTIAL CAPPING ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH EML. AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE THESE CONCERNS HAVE BEEN MITIGATED. Sent from my iPad HD Gotta give my chase partner a heads up, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Guy in NYC forum just said nws employee reported 60mph in Chester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 i love getting raked in the morn with storms, then going to 100 in the aft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 FD's are swamped with trees down, wires down calls down here, can't handle em all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Guy in NYC forum just said nws employee reported 60mph in Chester? Interesting didn't get a lot of wind had a quick douce of pea sized hail. There is damage to trees in nether providence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 picked up .06" we must have been in the bulls-eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 saturday night mcs looks insane on sim radar if it comes this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I can already see sun peaking through the clouds to my n/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Guy in NYC forum just said nws employee reported 60mph in Chester? Chester County, Spring City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 nice momattus here at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Thunderstorms fizzled as they crossed the Delaware heading into Mercer county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Chester County, Spring City. We got to 46 here so I'm not shocked about 60 over there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Most intense lightening I've seen here in northern DE in years commencing around 5 am. Most of it looked to be just to my north. Not a whole lot of wind at all and no hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Suns already trying to break out of this cloud deck here. Very milky sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Pick a bad night to take a benadryl and sleep with ear plugs in . Picked up .30 of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Franklin Twp., Gloucester County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Some reports thus far... mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#PHI/201206290830/201206291205/0100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Could hear hail on the roof/gutters but only picked-up 0.25". Nice lightning show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Could hear hail on the roof/gutters but only picked-up 0.25". Nice lightning show. No hail here, but we got rocked pretty well. Probably the most thunder and lightning we've had this so far underwhelming season (for mby)...anyone have a link to a radar playback? I can't seem to find one. It looks like from what I can tell, the line the came through was pretty nicely bowed. I would like to check it out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 saturday night mcs looks insane on sim radar if it comes this way Obviously hard to pinpoint exact track this far out....but does it look similar to todays track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 .19" with very little wind although power went off briefly. My next door neighbor has a Spring City address. Starting to get a little desperate for rain in the gardens. Time to pump from the stream, this heat is really going to bake the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 .19" with very little wind although power went off briefly. My next door neighbor has a Spring City address. Starting to get a little desperate for rain in the gardens. Time to pump from the stream, this heat is really going to bake the ground. At this point, I'm glad to get anything (0.23"). Power has been going on and off here the past few hours. Also notice no obs. from PTW since the storm rolled through. I was curious how strong wings gusted there since Spring City/Royersford had strong gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 0z Saturday, come to papa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 0z Saturday, come to papa. Looks great. Hope it stays and happeneds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 That was a really cool MCS. Woke my wife & I up just after 5 AM. Didn't notice any hail, but had some nice gusts to around 40 MPH, and a great light show. Ready for a repeat performance tomorrow night, perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 So far the best thunder and lightning of the season..although cannot give an accurate account from my bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 FD's are swamped with trees down, wires down calls down here, can't handle em all. Do you happen to have some specific info regarding locations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Do you happen to have some specific info regarding locations? mike i just missed the brunt of the storm when i woke up at 515, but had a measured wind gust of 54 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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