Thunder Road Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 SPC WRF has the same complex in eastern Ohio (Cleveland looks to get rocked later tonight) but also collapses it except for some remnant convection moving through the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 12z Nam just went rather bullish for Saturday night showing a strong to severe cluster/ MCS moving through after 8pm Saturday. Now the GFS on the other hand has very strong cluster of storms popping up out of no where in south jersey and Delaware. General idea is models are hinting at a heavy rain/ storm threat for Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 12z Nam just went rather bullish for Saturday night showing a strong to severe cluster/ MCS moving through after 8pm Saturday. Now the GFS on the other hand has very strong cluster of storms popping up out of no where in south jersey and Delaware. General idea is models are hinting at a heavy rain/ storm threat for Saturday night. 50 dBz just off shore of NYC on sim radar at 6z Sunday. That's quite the impressive signal. Unfortunately, sim radar isn't all that great with convective complexes like these, especially more than 24 hours out when we don't know the potential implications of convection tonight and tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 50 dBz just off shore of NYC on sim radar at 6z Sunday. That's quite the impressive signal. Unfortunately, sim radar isn't all that great with convective complexes like these, especially more than 24 hours out when we don't know the potential implications of convection tonight and tomorrow night. Ya sim radar on the nam has been awful lately though when is it ever good. tomorrow night models should get a better grip on weather or not this is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 12z euro showing the Saturday night convection quite well defiantly starting to become the most interesting time frame besides sunday which per GFS would feature convection through out the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 The storms in NW PA have tons of lightning, over 5000 strikes per hour. Hopefully they can hold together for some early morning action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 There may very well be a significant wind event unfolding in central PA right now. KCCX has been picking up large pockets of >50 kts on the lowest BV tilt for several scans now, with some areas pushing 65-70 kts. Given that you're not all that far away from the radar (and therefore only at about 1700-2000 ft AGL) that makes me think that State College's SVR for 60 mph winds might be underdoing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I'm surprised nobody posted the Day 2. It has us in a SLGT with a very large hatching area. The discussion also mentions a possible categorical upgrade in later outlooks, but it does also stress uncertainties due to capping and timing/placement of outflow boundaries from previous night's convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 There may very well be a significant wind event unfolding in central PA right now. KCCX has been picking up large pockets of >50 kts on the lowest BV tilt for several scans now, with some areas pushing 65-70 kts. Given that you're not all that far away from the radar (and therefore only at about 1700-2000 ft AGL) that makes me think that State College's SVR for 60 mph winds might be underdoing it. 20 minutes ago, just east of KCCX, there was 80 kts showing up at 300 feet AGL. Gotta be some decent wind damage in Centre County. Gonna be interesting to see if it can make it this far east, as it shows no sign of weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 MCS has quickly restrengthened as it moves towards LanCo, warned to 70, wouldn't be surprised to see higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Severe Watch just issued until 8am for the area, specifically for this MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Mount holly NWS did a fantastic job with this MCS tonight in there Thursday evening MCS we should see this remain severe as it comes through the metro area due to a MUCH stronger disturbance/ MCV with the MCS then the models had and steep mid level lapse rates. Also with the rate of speed that the MCS is moving the wind threat is going to be enhanced so do not be surprised to see some wind damage in a few places. As for Friday evening things are getting interesting as the nam is trying to pick up on some convection just south of here which instead could actually end up a bit more north as the flow behind or MCS has set up a bit north of where the models had it. the NMM has a threat from Philly south and west. we will just have to wait and see what happens as this will be a now casting event. As to Saturday It is very well possible we could see a legit Moderate rsk day as we will have a fairly strong trigger along with very nice dynamics and instability. If we do get upgraded with would be for large hail and damaging winds. Additionally as hinted by the nam and GFS if this is indeed a classic west to east system we would see a threat for heavy rain fall and pounding in pour drainage areas. Certainly the severe potential currently outweighs the flood potential as flash flood guidance for most is not supportive of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 pretty impressive light show up here so far along 422. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 wind gust to 46 here with the storms. no hail but a quick hitting burst of rain. too bad this didn't hit at 3:30 to cool us off lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Constant lightning to my west here in Salem County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Wow! Just woke up to a loss of power and winds strong enough to blow over some patio stuff outside. Lightning/thunder non-stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Good lightning show even with the weaker northern part of the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Wow! Just woke up to a loss of power and winds strong enough to blow over some patio stuff outside. Lightning/thunder non-stop. Sames! Getting raked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Constant lightning to my west here in Salem County. Chase time! Hah. Had some decent winds here. I missed the bulk. Didn't expect this at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 About a .25" of rain so far. Recorded a gust to 41 mph. Going back and forth between power and no power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 models did a great job on this a couple of days out. details were tough as always but the "idea" is what counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 models did a great job on this a couple of days out. details were tough as always but the "idea" is what counts. Yup. Funny how the 00z NAM from last night lost it though after having it for days in advance. This (potentially) bodes well for late Saturday/Saturday night. Overall, yesterday morning, almost every model showed something rolling though just like what is occuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Chase time! Hah. Had some decent winds here. I missed the bulk. Didn't expect this at all. I'm working doing my paper route, lol. It chased me, I tried staying ahead of it to beat it home, but that didn't work. Getting raked here in Elmer, my house is really about to get it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Strong winds, constant lightning, and dime sized hail here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Some decents winds in northeast Philly. Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Possibly pea to marble sized hail here, can't tell exactly, frigging getting rocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Say what you want about MCS's, at least they are time efficent. In and out in 20 minutes. No hanging around for 2 hours like some other thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Hahahahhaah lee is gonna be soooo pissed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Say what you want about MCS's, at least they are time efficent. In and out in 20 minutes. No hanging around for 2 hours. Hauling ass @75mph! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Hahahahhaah lee is gonna be soooo pissed! He's seeing it, I woke him up, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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