tombo82685 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Why do I feel like I've heard this before.... you can get storms in meager shear. When you have high shear combined with those other values, well some more helicty to, you get a tornado outbreak. This area isnt really a high shear environment hence why we don't many tornadoes. Their is more to it then that. But you need good shear to have tornadoes. Thats why the event down in dc/md was so rare cause the shear was pretty strong combined with other good factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 03z SPC SREF has nice probs for NJ on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 0z euro has slowed its frontal movement down a little, helping the chance for svr storms...best shot would be jersey since the front would cross later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 0z euro has slowed its frontal movement down a little, helping the chance for svr storms...best shot would be jersey since the front would cross later on. If anyone's getting anything Monday it's the Shore and Delaware. We'll get storms tonight and early Monday across the region but severe is not likely when those move through. BTW, there's a slight risk down to our southwest for later today (VA, WV, NC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Slight risk added to the far eastern sections for tomorrow, mentioning severe wind/hail as the primary threats. Beach chase anyone? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 15z SPC SREF, keeps nice probs over all of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Line now forming over southeast VA will be the center of attention tonight with better elevated instability expected to move in towards morning and high sweat values I could see there being a strong wind threat with a few isolated severe storms anytime after 3am. then another threat for east of I95 tomorrow for severe wx. 1 Interesting thing to point out is the RAP model slows the front down quiet a bit across the area with continuous redevelopment Not saying this will happen but could be a heavy rain and tornado threat if that were to happen given the good dynamics that will be around tomorrow. best chance still east of I95. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RR/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=rr:&runTime=2012062422&plotName=cref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=19&model=rr&ptitle=RAP%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3&wjet=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Is that legit over Philly? Cell building? KDIX down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Is that legit over Philly? Cell building? KDIX down... Some Light rain here in Northeast Philly and it is getting rather breezy but I see no major rain fall on the penndot cams in and around the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 per 0z nam, looks like front crossage is around 15z so like 9-11 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 The first wave passes through at 10z (so 6 am) per the 0z RAP. Given that it's early morning, we're lucky to even have the 250 J/Kg of CAPE that's being modeled (though there's more south). You have 30-knot winds just above the surface and 5-knot winds at the surface on a 10z sounding off the RAP for Philadelphia. That makes me think shearing apart will be an issue. PWATs are greater than 1.5" at that time, so there might be some heavy rain, but I'm generally unimpressed by the set-up. Timing is the killer. Through 18z the RAP prints out less than 0.50" so it doesn't seem too enthused either. (Sussex County gets over 0.50" but only barely.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 SPC dragged the SLGT west a little bit at 6z 15% Wind, 15% Hail, and they introduced a 2% Tor. AIDED BY RELATIVELY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SOME INITIAL SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE /A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT/...AGAIN MOST LIKELY FOR THE DELMARVA AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO NC. TSTM CLUSTERS WILL OTHERWISE SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS LINGER INTO THE EVENING /BUT ON AN INCREASINGLY ISOLATED BASIS/ ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 The first wave passes through at 10z (so 6 am) per the 0z RAP. Given that it's early morning, we're lucky to even have the 250 J/Kg of CAPE that's being modeled (though there's more south). You have 30-knot winds just above the surface and 5-knot winds at the surface on a 10z sounding off the RAP for Philadelphia. That makes me think shearing apart will be an issue. PWATs are greater than 1.5" at that time, so there might be some heavy rain, but I'm generally unimpressed by the set-up. Timing is the killer. Through 18z the RAP prints out less than 0.50" so it doesn't seem too enthused either. (Sussex County gets over 0.50" but only barely.) Reiterating my thoughts from yesterday -- it's a Shore and Delaware special later on -- they'll get some daytime heating and the timing of the front should work just right to be able to get something out of it in the early afternoon hours. 95 corridor could get some heavy thunder but I think the timing is not favorable for the city and northwest, IMO. *Now that I said that, watch 95 get raked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Severe Thunderstorm Watch just issued for the area, until 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0521 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON VALID 251021Z - 251045Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...A WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. DISCUSSION...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT NEAR COASTAL AREAS... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION THIS MORNING ACROSS THE RELATIVE HIGHLY POPULATED AREAS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ..KERR/CARBIN.. 06/25/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 425 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 640 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CONNECTICUT NORTHERN DELAWARE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND LONG ISLAND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 640 AM UNTIL 200 PM EDT. WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF WINDSOR LOCKS CONNECTICUT TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 424... DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE MORNING AS AN AXIS OF VERY MOIST AIR IS TAPPED AND DYNAMIC ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL ACROSS CT/LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS NYC AREA GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. SOUTH OF NYC...ACROSS SERN PA AND NJ...SOME DIURNAL INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE STRONGER FORCING AND SHEAR ARRIVE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING OVER THESE AREAS WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS AND CELLS CAPABLE OF BOTH WIND AND SEVERE HAIL. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035. ...CARBIN Hazard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 the one cell in northern bucks has some bite to it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 have to lol that NYC was hosed out of the watch completely. got to imagine some of the severe weenies up there love seeing that. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0425_overview_big_wou.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Looks like a nice storm about to impact my area...looks worse on radar....then anything on friday...not warned...so maybe more bark then bite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Real loud thunder...cg...shock this storm is not warned...worse then warned storm we had on friday...but im.not a severe expert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Its warned...looks real impressive on radar.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Unless that stuff out by lanco gets it $hit together, us SEPA folks will miss out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Unless that stuff out by lanco gets it $hit together, us SEPA folks will miss out. It looks like its trying to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 It looks like its trying to. Wouldn't get your hopes up. I'm not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 0.02" the other day, 0.01" so far today. NAM is going to be 2/2 in Delaware Valley (north of the Turnpike).. for the no-storm zone in the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Wouldn't get your hopes up. I'm not impressed. My hopes never get up when I'm stuck at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 A decent event closer to the coast for sure. I've counted at least 3 discrete rounds of thunderstorms since last night. 0.50 in the rain gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Plenty lightning with these storms. Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Total suckage again for northern DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Too bad this wasn't slowed down by 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.