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SE PA/Mt. Holly severe threats..


NaoPos

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Also, thanks to Tom and Brian for the help tonight, nice having a second set of eyes making sure I'm not going the wrong way, lol.

Sorry I wasn't able to help as I was filming here at home but outside so I didn't look at the computer much. I am down to two cameras as the other two fogged up bad inside the lense. Still getting decent spider lightning here.

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Also, thanks to Tom and Brian for the help tonight, nice having a second set of eyes making sure I'm not going the wrong way, lol.

No prob. I know the both of us combined could never possibly match Lee, but we tried our darnest!

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Here's what the 12z nam prints out for Monday.

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I could see a brief tornado threat with this set up, especially with the meso low that the nam shows near SE pa/south jersey backing* the wind field a bit. Just something to keep an eye on. Lcl's are plenty low enough too, so we have the low level moisture. Different set up than yesterday.

Sent from my iPad HD

Sorry for any typo's. I can't type on the iPad /iPhone

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Still a See Text for tomorrow, larger area now though, includes our entire area.

...MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...

AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS STEADILY SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND

MIDWEST REGION...MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT

AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED -- AND

THUS RAISING SOME QUESTIONS WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE

COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS...FAIRLY STRONG NWLY

FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION -- SUPPORTING ORGANIZATION

POTENTIAL AND FAIRLY RAPID STORM MOVEMENT. THEREFORE -- POTENTIAL

FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA

THIS FORECAST. WHILE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND

INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS -- SPREADING EWD INTO PARTS OF THE

NORTHEAST WITH TIME...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH

LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...ERN WV/VA/NC VICINITY...

DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND E OF THE APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR

IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT STORM

DEVELOPMENT -- LIKELY TO BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE HIGHER

TERRAIN INITIALLY AND LESS FOCUSED ACROSS AREAS FARTHER E. WITH

MODERATE MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW...SOME ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL APPEARS

TO EXIST AS STORMS SHIFT OFF THE TERRAIN AND MOVE SEWD WITH TIME.

THOUGH OVERALL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR UNSUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD

SEVERE POTENTIAL...ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL

HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER CELLS -- PARTICULARLY WITH ANY

SMALL-SCALE/FAST-MOVING CLUSTER WHICH MAY EVOLVE.

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Here's what the 12z nam prints out for Monday.

I could see a brief tornado threat with this set up, especially with the meso low that the nam shows near SE pa/south jersey backing* the wind field a bit. Just something to keep an eye on. Lcl's are plenty low enough too, so we have the low level moisture. Different set up than yesterday.

Sent from my iPad HD

Sorry for any typo's. I can't type on the iPad /iPhone

the timing to me doesn't look good. The nam and the euro has everything pushed through by/before 18z, so around noonish. Slow the front down some more and it could be decent. The numbers look pretty good in terms of LI and cape, the shear is meager, but some is present. Not much helicity so maybe a chance of 1 or so.

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the timing to me doesn't look good. The nam and the euro has everything pushed through by/before 18z, so around noonish. Slow the front down some more and it could be decent. The numbers look pretty good in terms of LI and cape, the shear is meager, but some is present. Not much helicity so maybe a chance of 1 or so.

Why do I feel like I've heard this before....

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