cast4 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 The SPC Meso dis. seems to hint that because of the warm and humid airmass in place it could lead to slower than normal weakening of the storms. ...SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS AND WARM ADVECTION REGIME MAY LEAD TO A SLOWER THAN TYPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE INVERSION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING PAC001-041-043-071-075-099-107-133-292215- /O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0046.120529T2103Z-120529T2215Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 503 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... DAUPHIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... NORTHWESTERN LANCASTER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... LEBANON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... WESTERN SCHUYLKILL COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... NORTHWESTERN YORK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 615 PM EDT * AT 500 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM POTTSVILLE TO SHIPPENSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE... SEVEN STARS AND GETTYSBURG... PINE GROVE FURNACE AND BOILING SPRINGS... HARRISBURG AND LICKDALE... HEIDLERSBURG AND SUMMIT STATION... LEMOYNE... LAKE MEADE AND EAST BERLIN... THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 206 AND 274...I-78 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 8...I-81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 28 AND 121...I-83 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 23 AND 50...I-283. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...THE HARRISBURG EXPRESSWAY...THE HARRISBURG AIRPORT CONNECTOR...STATE HIGHWAY 283... ROUTE 11...ROUTE 11/15...ROUTE 15...ROUTE 22...ROUTE 30...ROUTE 209...ROUTE 322...ROUTE 322/22...ROUTE 422...STATE ROAD 61...STATE ROAD 94...STATE ROAD 501. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGE. MOVE INSIDE A PERMANENT BUILDING NOW TO BE SAFE FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. && LAT...LON 3972 7746 3997 7746 4018 7754 4034 7733 4042 7713 4067 7667 4080 7631 4084 7629 4054 7616 4049 7643 4032 7616 4005 7659 TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 250DEG 34KT 4065 7620 4004 7745 $$ FORECASTER: GARTNER/JUNG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Seams to me over the last hour or so convection south of the PA state line has made less progress east and is now moving even more northeastward could continue to make the flash flood / heavy rain aspect more interesting possibly meaning a slower front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Seams to me over the last hour or so convection south of the PA state line has made less progress east and is now moving even more northeastward could continue to make the flash flood / heavy rain aspect more interesting with a slower front. Any thoughts on for us further east though? As i am debating but still on guard to move if i need to. I have my iphone and charger and 4G of data i can burn through with radarscope and such ready at the push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Seams to me over the last hour or so convection south of the PA state line has made less progress east and is now moving even more northeastward could continue to make the flash flood / heavy rain aspect more interesting possibly meaning a slower front. cells are moving northeast, line is shifting east-northeast if not mainly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I'd nudge that to ABE-PTW-MQS and west but yeah, I pretty much agree with what you say. I do think a ST watch gets issued til 10 or 11 for Philly, TTN, NYC, DC, and BWI as a precaution. the instability has gone down a decent amount for atleast philly on east since earlier this afternoon. Best instability is north and down by dc area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Any thoughts on for us further east though? As i am debating but still on guard to move if i need to. I have my iphone and charger and 4G of data i can burn through with radarscope and such ready at the push. I think we will first see heavy rain fall from what it left of the strong to severe storms. Key thing will be how fast it moves through our area. If it continues this slower progression eastward more moisture would get worked in from beryl as indicated by water vapor down south which would lead to additional bands of heavy rain and storms along the front. Also worth noting that behind the main activity the Hrrr develops another round later overnight after midnight of steady rain with some pockets of more moderate to heavy rain breaking out at the end of the run. We will just have to wait and see if that verifies but if it were to happen I could see places getting an additional 0.50+ on top of the localized high amounts from the storms tonight. Highest threat for flash flooding will be the lehigh valley where flash flood guidance states that only 1-2 inches could cause flooding but generally in the very moist and tropical like set up any one could see flash flooding out of this which is why the rest of southeast pa has a flash flood watch as well and do to the fact we have seen very heavy rain from storms lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I think we will first see heavy rain fall from what it left of the strong to severe storms. Key thing will be how fast it moves through our area. If it continues this slower progression eastward more moisture would get worked in from beryl as indicated by water vapor down south which would lead to additional bands of heavy rain and storms along the front. Also worth noting that behind the main activity the Hrrr develops another round later overnight after midnight of steady rain with some pockets of more moderate to heavy rain breaking out at the end of the run. We will just have to wait and see if that verifies but if it were to happen I could see places getting an additional 0.50+ on top of the localized high amounts from the storms tonight. Highest threat for flash flooding will be the lehigh valley where flash flood guidance states that only 1-2 inches could cause flooding but generally in the very moist and tropical like set up any one could see flash flooding out of this which is why the rest of southeast pa has a flash flood watch as well and do to the fact we have seen very heavy rain from storms lately. Fair Enough, I am just monitoring the situation and such. Still kinda debating but also watching my other hobby right now my DX'ing. Some ESkip from the Dominican Republic has been showing up on my TV on analog channel 2. So something slightly to fall back on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Well the line is approaching the boundary of the watch. SPC probably doesn't have enough confidence to expand it eastward. Though the line still has warnings along it from north to south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I knew that just after I posted that they would issue the watch... Which is precisely why I posted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I knew that just after I posted that they would issue the watch... Which is precisely why I posted it. Hehe thanks :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I knew that just after I posted that they would issue the watch... Which is precisely why I posted it. watch has now been issued for many of us till 10pm http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0318.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 the instability has gone down a decent amount for atleast philly on east since earlier this afternoon. Best instability is north and down by dc area. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0318.html hi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Gust front just ripped through and it "just" started pouring as I type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0318.html hi. yea their it is... you can see here the best lift is to the north and towards dc cape remains alittle bit for the phl area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 the watch placement is about perfect imo...Philly might not get severe criteria gusts but I think it's a good alignment for the watch (city and north). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Gust front just ripped through and it "just" started pouring as I type 50-60 mph gusts here, clouds racing like a mofo. No significant rain yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Seems like every square inch from Central PA eastward has been warned so far. Let's see if SE PA drops the ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Update: torrential downpour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 nasty cell just sw of reading....that bow echo means business around the fredrick area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 might see more hail reports start to show up once coming into se pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 french creek park & elverson are about to get pwned from that bow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 nasty cell just sw of reading....that bow echo means business around the fredrick area. Might have a good shot at the cyclonic vortex if it holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 thats a wall of a lot of water coming this way...the pwats coming in with this are moisture laden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Temp just dropped at least 10 degrees over 10-15 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Heavy rain the last 15 minutes here outside of Lancaster, temp down to 75 from a high of around 91. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 might see more hail reports start to show up once coming into se pa Could not agree more if that holds up hail sizes will increase with storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Heavy rain the last 15 minutes here outside of Lancaster, temp down to 75 from a high of around 91. It'll drop more yet. I've dropped down to about 67 from a high of 93. Up to .25" of much needed rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 It'll drop more yet. I've dropped down to about 67 from a high of 93. Up to .25" of much needed rain so far. Yes this rain so far has been welcomed. More work to do in the garden though and the lawn. I heard it dropped down to 67 in Carlise too, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Downpour with thunder and lightning here...got wind from the gust front too but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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