Thunder Road Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 The 18z NAM is probably (not surprisingly) overdoing temps for tomorrow. It has a small lobe of >95 F surface temps at 15z already. I'd be quite impressed if we saw 95 at 11 am tomorrow. Given the overheating of surface temps, the model might be too quick to mix out moisture. (Right now we already have a complete inverted-V at PHL at 15z.) Therefore I wouldn't be surprised if LCLs end up being somewhat lower than what's being modeled on the NAM. This, in turn, may decrease the downburst wind potential, but water loading is definitely still a concern as bri mentioned, given very moist mid and upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Clouds in place this AM over a good chunk of the region. Might be tough to not only get to the 95 that many are projecting but it may limit our severe prospects later on. 90 seems like a reasonable bet given how warm we are now but the deck of clouds around may limit the potential for severe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Clouds in place this AM over a good chunk of the region. Might be tough to not only get to the 95 that many are projecting but it may limit our severe prospects later on. 90 seems like a reasonable bet given how warm we are now but the deck of clouds around may limit the potential for severe... i don't think they are that thick. I know at my location right now their is blue sky mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 82.8 at 6:45 TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 i don't think they are that thick. I know at my location right now their is blue sky mixed in. It's a bit thicker out here...like I said, it *may* throw a wrench in the severe aspect later but may does not mean will. Jus' sayin' if anything were to go wrong, clouds could certainly play a role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 full sun here in SNJ, at least for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Clouds seem like they are thinning out here in Ardmore, pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 87/75 with stratus here. If I get hopeful there might be some thinning to my southeast, but nothing drastic. I'm kinda surprised SPC has no hail probs. I mean even with meager shear and less-than-wonderful CAPE owing to subpar mid-level lapse rates, there is probably still at least a 5% hail risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 87/75 with stratus here. If I get hopeful there might be some thinning to my southeast, but nothing drastic. I'm kinda surprised SPC has no hail probs. I mean even with meager shear and less-than-wonderful CAPE there is probably still at least a 5% hail risk. im to your west and their is a huge area of blue sjy moving in now...temp she jump rather fast into the upper 80s...sitting at 82 now. Lapse rates arent that great at all for hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Despite the cloud cover cape is already 2000-2500 for most in the area now. The Lifted Index is still rather weak at this hour. All and all I still think heavy rainfall and winds will be the primary threats today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 you gotta love the rap forecasting 100-101 for philly today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Despite the cloud cover cape is already 2000-2500 for most in the area now. The Lifted Index is still rather weak at this hour. All and all I still think heavy rainfall and winds will be the primary threats today. The lift index is expanding westward today you can see especially after the sun works it's way out. I am prepared with only 4 cameras although 2 work good the other two have a lot of issues. I do like the chances today though. I want a relaxing film event. This is the 3rd week removed from the great chase that Ryan and I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Back in partial clouds after a sunny period - 84.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gump Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Storm just popped up out of nowhere just to the north of me, as it moves off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 Hrrr for later. Centers the good stuff TTN north. Cue Lee rant... Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 I'm heading into Yardley Pa tomorrow for a softball tourney, and since i'm not familar with your area, if you get a lot of rain today, how will that affect the fields down that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 I'm heading into Yardley Pa tomorrow for a softball tourney, and since i'm not familar with your area, if you get a lot of rain today, how will that affect the fields down that way? Well it's been dry... And depends on if a thunderstorm hits the area. All depends on the field drainage as well. I'd say you'll be alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Storm just popped up out of nowhere just to the north of me, as it moves off the coast. This could be how storm fire up today Instability is sky rocketing right now with cape 2500-3500 and -3 to -5 lift. What is interesting is we just now are getting full sun in most places so it should continue. Also interesting to note there is some nice 35 KT shear developing to the northwest and spreading southeast. Which is slightly stronger then anticipated for this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Hrrr for later. Centers the good stuff TTN north. Cue Lee rant... Sent from my iPad HD No need to rant, after 3 weeks ago. That was amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Well it's been dry... And depends on if a thunderstorm hits the area. All depends on the field drainage as well. I'd say you'll be alright. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gump Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Storms really cookin here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 Anyone see the outflow boundry on the toms river cell? Microburst? Cell moving east, boundry pushing west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gump Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Torrential rain and lots of lightning and thunder. A rare treat here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 SPC now has a discussion out for us makes it real interesting for all. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1239.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Nice wind in the severe warned stuff in Ocean County. Says a lot, they weren't there 10 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Pretty nice thunderheads to my east northeast a few minutes ago they were nothing but small clouds I'd bet as this boundary spreads west more storms fire up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 Man, just some pretty sick looking boundries shooting west from that cluster by toms river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Big area of wind, LBI getting hit good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Big area of wind, LBI getting hit good. Probably not a fun scramble off the beach down there with winds like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 Ryan, How did you get the lightning on radar scope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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