SmokeEater Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 huge outbreak today cause of this I'm geared up and ready to go just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Guys, I'm looking for archived Mt Holly forecast discussions - June 1. I can only go back to June 3. Any idea where I can get these from the Mt Holly site. NWS text products (back to January 2009) can be found here: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 I'm geared up and ready to go just in case. Good, my cameras have gone over to DX'ing but can be pulled into storm filming if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesis Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Cell near Mystic Island, taken from just west of my house, about 30 miles away, I think. Few minutes before this it wasn't even there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 my gr2 is showing a 1.66 hail core with that cell northeast of mays landing, ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 A friend called me about 20 minutes ago and said he was on the AC Expressway and saw some clouds up high spinning a little bit near Egg Harbor City. The radar eventually did show a weak circulation approaching Galloway and the AC Airport. Has to be some hail in that storm I would imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShoreWXgal Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Cell near Mystic Island, taken from just west of my house, about 30 miles away, I think. Few minutes before this it wasn't even there. and..nothing really happened from that cell beside some rain and thunder....storms have been coming out of no where the majority of the day. We're having one right now, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 A friend called me about 20 minutes ago and said he was on the AC Expressway and saw some clouds up high spinning a little bit near Egg Harbor City. The radar eventually did show a weak circulation approaching Galloway and the AC Airport. Has to be some hail in that storm I would imagine. it had a strong hail core, now its weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 it had a strong hail core, now its weakening. It was pretty cool to see on radar how those storms blossomed upon hitting the sea breeze working its way inland: TIME SENSITIVE: http://synoptic.envs...=Fort Dix Radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 It was pretty cool to see on radar how those storms blossomed upon hitting the sea breeze working its way inland: TIME SENSITIVE: http://synoptic.envs...=Fort Dix Radar yea i posted in the obs thread during the afternoon showing the sea breeze and the outflow boundary coming south from montco an bucks from a dying storm. Pretty neat to see like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Crazy pic from Absegami High School's graduation, about 20 mins to my east. Only scud, but still. Right as the graduation ended, the driving hail hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 A little annoyed with myself, a ton of great pics are out there from east of me, scud, shelf, roll clouds, etc. Picked a bad day to fall asleep, lol. But oh well, that's the way it goes sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 A little annoyed with myself, a ton of great pics are out there from east of me, scud, shelf, roll clouds, etc. Picked a bad day to fall asleep, lol. But oh well, that's the way it goes sometimes. We know you're still Exhausted from your time with Lee!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 We know you're still Exhausted from your time with Lee!! I know right? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 Another 5% risk day from Philly to NY. Narrow corridor of instability with a weak front drapped across the region. That should be the focal point of lift. Nothing more than what we've been seeing the last few days. Diurnal storms yada yada yada... Thinking areas closer from Trenton to NYC have the better chance at something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Another 5% risk day from Philly to NY. Narrow corridor of instability with a weak front drapped across the region. That should be the focal point of lift. Nothing more than what we've been seeing the last few days. Diurnal storms yada yada yada... Thinking areas closer from Trenton to NYC have the better chance at something. CAPE and helicity (thanks Tom) values on the RAP this morning support this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Another 5% risk day from Philly to NY. Narrow corridor of instability with a weak front drapped across the region. That should be the focal point of lift. Nothing more than what we've been seeing the last few days. Diurnal storms yada yada yada... Thinking areas closer from Trenton to NYC have the better chance at something. pretty much bri. The best forcing and trigger is up north with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 pretty much bri. The best forcing and trigger is up north with the front. Trend has been to bring this slightly south more the past few days, but most of our area (should) still miss out. Probably ABE to TTN, on to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 The CWA from Sussex NJ to Sussex DE has had only 31 SVR's so far this year, which is close to the lowest seen by late June. Should not be many severe storms this Friday either, but perhaps the heat and humidity will allow for a couple of intense clusters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Day 2 slight risk for the entire area. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2012 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE DELMARVA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...DELMARVA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. IN RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM NRN VT/NH...SWWD INTO ERN KY AT 18Z. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE/INTENSIFY ALONG THIS CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS REMOVING EARLY MORNING INHIBITION. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY COULD EXCEED 2500 J/KG ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. AS A RESULT...ROBUST UPDRAFTS SHOULD EVOLVE PRIMARILY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WITHIN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR MULTI-CELL STORMS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE NOTED AFTER 21Z FROM NRN VA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ESEWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 The set up may be completely different, but tomorrow's severe threat reminds me of June 24, 2010 in terms of severe storms busting a heat wave. That day featured the 3rd highest wind gust ever recorded at the airport, and came on the 5th day of a heatwave: 6/20 - 94 6/21 - 90 6/22 - 92 6/23 - 94 6/24 - 97 6/25- 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 21, 2012 Author Share Posted June 21, 2012 Mt.Holly's thoughts 03Z/21 SREF PROB FOR SVR IN THE I95 CORRIDOR COMBINES WITH AN EC/GFS MODELED TT 48-50...LARGE INSTABILITY ...DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR TO ABOUT 30 KTS TO PROBABLY PERMIT A FEW SVR TSTMS IN THE I95 CORRIDOR FRI AFTN. CONTG THE THEME OF HEAVY CONVECTION...PWAT OF 1.75 INCH WILL MEAN SOME SPOTS WILL HAVE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IN SLOW ESEWD DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OR A BAND. WILL CHECK 12Z SPC WRF FOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THINKING. EVEN A VERY VERY LOW PROB TOR NEAR SEA BREEZE INTERSECTION IN NE NJ. && Nce write up Walt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Latest RPM just shown on nbc10 is now showing some super cells for tomorrow Philly on south and east. Also the 18z Nam has slowed the front down somewhat. Would not be surprised to see 1-2 inches in some places that see slow moving training segments. Primarily I95 on east for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Latest RPM just shown on nbc10 is now showing some super cells for tomorrow Philly on south and east. Also the 18z Nam has slowed the front down somewhat. Would not be surprised to see 1-2 inches in some places that see slow moving training segments. Primarily I95 on east for the time being. the sref mean has been slowly been getting wetter with each run. now has .75-1 for the phl area on east. Pwats will be pretty high tomorrow so it will monsoon in these storms. Only worry i have for philly area is the storms form right over the region and really get going to the east of the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 the sref mean has been slowly been getting wetter with each run. now has .75-1 for the phl area on east. Pwats will be pretty high tomorrow so it will monsoon in these storms. Only worry i have for philly area is the storms form right over the region and really get going to the east of the river. your worry is my hope lol...I can't even remember what thunder sounds like at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Latest RPM just shown on nbc10 is now showing some super cells for tomorrow Philly on south and east. Also the 18z Nam has slowed the front down somewhat. Would not be surprised to see 1-2 inches in some places that see slow moving training segments. Primarily I95 on east for the time being. It's all timing dependent. If the front slows any further development could be west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 It's all timing dependent. If the front slows any further development could be west of 95. Agree on that it is becoming rather interesting, rather interested to see if the 00z runs continue this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 the sref mean has been slowly been getting wetter with each run. now has .75-1 for the phl area on east. Pwats will be pretty high tomorrow so it will monsoon in these storms. Only worry i have for philly area is the storms form right over the region and really get going to the east of the river. For what it is worth the 18z GFS has just come in wetter as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 21, 2012 Author Share Posted June 21, 2012 Soo tomorrow is ok...iI think the biggest threat would be downburst due to collapsing updrafts due to water loading. Without sufficient shear to tilt the updrafts, this can happen. We'll see. Liking Mondays threat a whole lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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