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SE PA/Mt. Holly severe threats..


NaoPos

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Me thinks, the tornado watch may not get issued. Might get something once that line comes close. All the cells are becoming rain wrapped. You can see why some of us were concerned a couple days back when models were showing the warm front getting further north. The thing that saved the dc people was the meager CAPE. If their would of been 1500+ CAPE this would of been a torn outbreak imho.

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Me thinks, the tornado watch may not get issued. Might get something once that line comes close. All the cells are becoming rain wrapped. You can see why some of us were concerned a couple days back when models were showing the warm front getting further north. The thing that saved the dc people was the meager CAPE. If their would of been 1500+ CAPE this would of been a torn outbreak imho.

They may consider a severe thunderstorm watch as the cold front squal line approaches if still needed shear and helicity really fueling it nicely right now.

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Still considering it.

mcd1014.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0554 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC...ERN VA...MD...DE...SERN PA...NJ

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 333...

VALID 012254Z - 020100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 333 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS PERSIST OVER

THE AREA...AND A SEVERE THREAT MAY EXPAND NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF SERN

PA...DE AND CNTRL/SRN NJ.

DISCUSSION...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SUPERCELLS OVER VA AND

MD...WITH NOTABLE CIRCULATIONS NOW ENTERING KING GEORGE COUNTY AND

FARTHER S INTO HANOVER COUNTY. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE

WIND PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES REMAIN...AND A NEW WATCH

WILL REPLACE #333 PRIOR TO THE SCHEDULED 0100Z EXPIRATION.

..JEWELL.. 06/01/2012

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 39467737 40587681 40677580 40487554 40157569 39477570

38487563 38447507 37917522 37487541 36747584 36257595

36007684 36037745 36197925 36207935 39467737

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Some new activity starting to fire up in South jersey and north Delaware Myabe some nice wind with it other then that looks like it as well should go rain warped like everything else.

Very first of the dark clouds are racing in here in SJ. I did a double take when I looked out the window and saw the flow from the SE, even though the overall system is approaching from the SW. Looking at the radar more closely, you can it filling in a bit in the SE.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

903 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 930 PM EDT

* AT 901 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR

JENKINTOWN...OR NEAR PHILADELPHIA...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

WILLOW GROVE...ABINGTON AND BRYN ATHYN BY 910 PM EDT...

HATBORO BY 915 PM EDT...

IVYLAND BY 920 PM EDT...

RICHBORO BY 925 PM EDT...

DOYLESTOWN...6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROBESONIA...7 MILES SOUTH OF

GARDENVILLE AND 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEW HOPE BY 930 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A

WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS

AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN

INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO

COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A

SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE

NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY

CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4010 7506 4008 7508 4005 7510 4006 7514

4008 7517 4007 7519 4008 7521 4041 7521

4038 7495 4033 7493

TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 190DEG 25KT 4009 7513

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