Engine2211 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Just had a freak rainshower here in Evesham Twp, NJ. Wasn't even picked up by radar. Are we done though? That stuff off to the west looks like crap. Could it redevelop as it heads over Jersey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Another interesting outflow boundary setting up across New Jersey! Not as potent as what we saw on Friday, but still shows up nicely in velocity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Engine2211 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Yea it petered out here. Some decent looking storms off to the east towards Hammonton and down Atlantic County. Boy, they've been getting hit hard this year down there. Kind of funny because usually whatever they get, we here first in Burlington and Camden counties. But not this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Yea it petered out here. Some decent looking storms off to the east towards Hammonton and down Atlantic County. Boy, they've been getting hit hard this year down there. Kind of funny because usually whatever they get, we here first in Burlington and Camden counties. But not this year! I'm one mile south of Hammonton, and it barely rained here, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Here's the part of Mt. Holly's discussion that matters, and SPC kept us in the slight risk area for today, just moved the 30% wind contour south of us, where the Severe Watch is now. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion -- CONTINUING THE REST OF THE WATCH THRU AT LEAST 1710Z. STILL UNSTABLE AND GFS SUGGEST REDEVELOPMENT S NJ INTO DE MIDDAY OR THIS AFTN AS VT MAX DIVES SEWD. PLENTY OF SHEAR AND HIGH TT. NOTING A NEW LINE OF SCT-BKN SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER ALB TO MSV TO AVP AT 1650Z. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR GUSTY WINDS SMALL HAIL. WE WERE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY FROM 7A-10A THIS MORNING WITH THE BIGGEST STORMS IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SUSSEX CTY DE WHERE G TO 60 KTS AT DEWEY BEACH VIA WXFLOW DATA ARD 913 AM AND TREES DOWN INTO A FEW STRUCTURES PER PUBLIC AND EMERGENCY MANAGER. PLS SEE LSRPHI. OTRW THE THE LINE IN NJ WAS HAIL MOSTLY LESS THAN 1 INCH AND ISOLATED TREE DOWN WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH 1 INCH RAINS IN 30 MINUTES. THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY IS S DE AND SE NJ COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShoreWXgal Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Having a severe storm with hail right now... Had to snap a pic of the hail because it happens so rarely here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Having a severe storm with hail right now... Had to snap a pic of the hail because it happens so rarely here lol Severe? What size hail fell? Tough to tell based on the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShoreWXgal Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Severe? What size hail fell? Tough to tell based on the picture. I would say only dime size... It came down fast and furious for only a few minutes ..power is out here and we have another storm on its heels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 I would say only dime size... It came down fast and furious for only a few minutes ..power is out here and we have another storm on its heels Okay, so it was not technically severe. What town are you actually in? Thanks for the quick follow-up and the report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShoreWXgal Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Okay, so it was not technically severe. What town are you actually in? Thanks for the quick follow-up and the report. Osborn Island section of Little Egg Harbor .. Lol.. I never see hail here so please excuse my misconception of " severe" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Osborn Island section of Little Egg Harbor .. Lol.. I never see hail here so please excuse my misconception of " severe" Thanks for the additional info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 GFS showing 3000 cape for the area on Friday, juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Rumors around town that the storm that hit Dewey/Long Neck/Angola had a tornado associated with it....but I think it's just hype and people assuming wind damage=tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Really becoming interested in the Friday through Monday Time frame the ridge will be building in with a northwest flow setting up over us setting up the train tracks for an MCS or 2 as posted above the GFS is putting out moderate instability. The 12z nam is putting out sweat values just over 300, 40kt shear convective wind gust to 67mph and 2500-3000 along with -8 lift. Also with the 90 degree temps that will be in place there will be somewhat decent PWAT values between 1.50 and 1.70. Already a disturbance showing up just to our southwest here on the 12z nam for Friday morning with another one showing up for Friday evening/ night for now the main focus will be the one for Friday night. If all was to work out I could see at least Friday in to Friday night being a 30% day for wind still quite a bit of time for the set up and numbers to change a bit but for this far out things are looking pretty good. As for the rest of the weekend my best guess this far out would be to get through Friday first and wait till we get closer to try and figure out the weekend threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 Speaking of airmasses this weekend, check out these soundings. Not to shabby. Although, dp's are a little low due to the westerly wind in conjunction with the axis of the ridge. Lcl's are high (roughly 1800-2400 agl)but quite an EML ( I'm assuming this sounding shows that?) Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Speaking of airmasses this weekend, check out these soundings. Not to shabby. Although, dp's are a little low due to the westerly wind in conjunction with the axis of the ridge. Lcl's are high (roughly 1800-2400 agl)but quite an EML ( I'm assuming this sounding shows that?) Sent from my iPad HD 18z nam, before some storms move in fri has 103 for phl, ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 I can not help but laugh at the 18z nam the number it puts out are off the charts. if it happened the lehigh valley would see a moderate risk. I have been following the models for years I do not think I have ever see the sweat near 500 for Allentown. Instability on the other hand I have seen this high just not dynamics. The numbers for Philly are a tad lower but still pretty darn high. take this run with a grain of salt for now will see if this continues on future runs. http://68.226.77.253/text/meso/NAM_kabe.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 With Friday being a potentially active severe weather day, does this threat for strong to severe thunderstorms look to continue over the weekend as well especially with any MCS activity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 With Friday being a potentially active severe weather day, does this threat for strong to severe thunderstorms look to continue over the weekend as well especially with any MCS activity? Yes it does in deed look like there could strong to severe storms through the weekend. this could be a classic case were a dry forecast could turn very stormy or opposite way around. Though for the time being Friday has the best severe chances. Also with the high PWAT values being out out by the models could also be heavy rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Methinks Friday is more a morning threat...heat ridge pushing in, thunder development may take place overnight Thursday in Western PA or NY and push through in the AM hours...may be some isolated pop up in PM hours but I think once any AM activity moves through atmosphere may cap and limit PM odds. 0z and 6z NAM both hint strongly at this scenario...with the 0z EC hinting at mid/late morning thunder threat locally. IMO, it looks more like a nocturnal thunder scenario...the window-rattling 4 AM type of thunderstorm that moves through. We're in a 5% for Day 3 FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Methinks Friday is more a morning threat...heat ridge pushing in, thunder development may take place overnight Thursday in Western PA or NY and push through in the AM hours...may be some isolated pop up in PM hours but I think once any AM activity moves through atmosphere may cap and limit PM odds. 0z and 6z NAM both hint strongly at this scenario...with the 0z EC hinting at mid/late morning thunder threat locally. IMO, it looks more like a nocturnal thunder scenario...the window-rattling 4 AM type of thunderstorm that moves through. We're in a 5% for Day 3 FWIW. Yeah, looks like just about every model indicates some sort of disturbance riding along the heat ridge across PA some time between 06z-18z Friday. NAM, Euro.....GFS and Canadian even push something through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Not everyday you see numbers like the 12z Nam has for our area 4700 cape 360 sweat -9 lift. as Phlwx posted it is becoming more of a morning threat on the models however wild card will be if we can get cap to break in the evening. Could be quite a show if we do! Northeast Philadelphia numbers. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kpne.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Not everyday you see numbers like the 12z Nam has for our area 4700 cape 360 sweat -9 lift. as Phlwx posted it is becoming more of a morning threat on the models however wild card will be if we can get cap to break in the evening. Could be quite a show if we do! Northeast Philadelphia numbers. http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_kpne.txt 460 sweat. Even if these numbers are halfed....wouldnt they still be decent numbers for severe weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 SPC does not seem concerned very much about Friday. The numbers you guys are throwing around definitely should be raising some eyebrows, I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 460 sweat. Even if these numbers are halfed....wouldnt they still be decent numbers for severe weather? You need a good trigger and Instability to go with it. we got the Instability and the sweat even if it was cut in half would still be good. The wild card is a trigger and capping (capping prevents strong activity from developing) sometimes the models hint at triggers in this type set up but under due them we saw this happen on memorial day weekend with the surprise outbreaks in central pa that basically fell apart when they got to our area. Not saying this is going to happen but it is possible we see something similar to that if capping was to break in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 SPC does not seem concerned very much about Friday. The numbers you guys are throwing around definitely should be raising some eyebrows, I would think. They're usually not bullish on the Day 3 outlooks, unless the models show a full scale severe weather outbreak. Honestly, even a Day 3 see text is rare around this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 They're usually not bullish on the Day 3 outlooks, unless the models show a full scale severe weather outbreak. Honestly, even a Day 3 see text is rare around this area. Yeah, that's what made that Day 4 slight risk earlier this month (or was that Mem Day wkend?) stand out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Nw flow aloft- check Heat surging in LL- check Mid-level impulse diving SSE- check Somebody will get rocked early Fri. am Interested to see where the models hone in on this tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 High res PSU NAM pushes a complex of thunderstorms through Pennsylvania overnight. southern 1/2 of complex splits off, dives southeast and dies near Philly while the northern half survives and tracks through Berks, Lehigh Valley, Bucks after 3 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Both the hi-res NMM and ARW blow up a decent complex in eastern Ohio at 3z tonight seemingly out of nowhere. The NMM, as Tom mentioned, brings it through between 9 and 12z, whereas the ARW turns the complex into two lines (front and back) but then has both just fall apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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