brad1551 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Who doesn't love Big Snows? I for one do!! This Facebook post/blog on this years winter looks ridiculous. What I really meant was BS. 1st it's way to early to even come out with such of a royalty type of winter. 2nd there is not forecast to justify this post. 3rd you get my drift!!!!! How can you even predict this far out what certain time will even look. "THIS PERSON IS SMOKING WAY TO MANY COOKIES" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I was briefly texting with zwyts tonight...and I think its extremely hard not to go negative for February in an El Nino in the BWI/DCA region. A couple of exceptions, but no real reason you would ever predict it. The sample size is still fairly small (but growing with each Nino)....but going positive in an El Nino February is like predicting 35" of snow at DCA without any information at all. But some caveats....mostly the sample size. The others seem to be super Ninos which this obviously wont be. This goes back to the blocking post I had a week or two ago. Every El Nino february seems to have a decent amount of blocking with the exception of a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I like seeing the area in north texas dive southeastward, want that this winter. Some good low pattern lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 HM going very chilly in east most likely Jan thru March . His thoughts in new england thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 HM going very chilly in east most likely Jan thru March . His thoughts in new england thread Yes...I am starting to feel very good about SNE having a good winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Yes...I am starting to feel very good about SNE having a good winter Thank God, the complaining last year was rough. Glad you are back here posting again. It wasnt the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Yes...I am starting to feel very good about SNE having a good winter As we all know...they deserve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 HM going very chilly in east most likely Jan thru March . His thoughts in new england thread Alright, alright, let's take it easy. I'm not going anything yet. I just saw some promising signs in the base of ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Alright, alright, let's take it easy. I'm not going anything yet. I just saw some promising signs in the base of ENSO. Ji likes to make wild statements regarding forecasts based on semi-out-of-context phrases/sentences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Ji likes to make wild statements regarding forecasts based on semi-out-of-context phrases/sentences. please, don't encourage him to run for political office Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I'm starting to feel better about winter in the last few days...colder/snowier analogs like 11-12, 63-64, 02-03 are starting to jump out at me more in fact, 11-12, 23-24, 63-64, 02-03 might be my favorite analogs now... 11-12 made me think 2011-12 which made me freak out a bit....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 11-12 made me think 2011-12 which made me freak out a bit....... LOL. I thought he was joking too, then I saw the others and got confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Some solid long rangers starting to hint cold now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Accuweather FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Every preliminary winter 2012-2013 forecast out on You Tube is calling for a cold and snowy winter for us. Defiantly makes you wonder!!!! I really like seeing this +AMO and helping us with I hope some good blocking this winter. I still feel that Irene and the early Nor"Easter had some correlation with the horrible blocking last year!!! Keep Isaac away! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Ji likes to make wild statements regarding forecasts based on semi-out-of-context phrases/sentences. This is what he said Yeah I am starting to think that this year goes into that camp; and if the case, would mean that Jan-Mar is probably going to be very chilly in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 This is what he said Yeah I am starting to think that this year goes into that camp; and if the case, would mean that Jan-Mar is probably going to be very chilly in the East. Yes if we transition into a weak El Nino-west based system (looking promising), then a cool mid to late winter is the more likely scenario for the East. It may not be the snowiest outcome, as Matt and several others pointed out, for our region but it could be further northeast into southern New England and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Every preliminary winter 2012-2013 forecast out on You Tube is calling for a cold and snowy winter for us. Defiantly makes you wonder!!!! I really like seeing this +AMO and helping us with I hope some good blocking this winter. I still feel that Irene and the early Nor"Easter had some correlation with the horrible blocking last year!!! Keep Isaac away! Lol. I defiantly wonder all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 in fact, 11-12, 23-24, 63-64, 02-03 might be my favorite analogs now... Most of these had a pretty solid +PDO system in tandem with the El Nino but I can see similarities to the pattern this summer. There are other early years that are showing up, too, but they may not necessarily be analogs yet. Years like 1919-20, 1930-31, e.g. are somewhat okay and even 1913-14 (cold solar minimum El Nino winter) shows similar summer behavior. My concern is we end up with a 1979-80 or a 1958-59 type of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 My concern is we end up with a 1979-80 or a 1958-59 type of year. I think those two winters illustrate the difficulty of forecasting the amount of snow in a given area. The winter of 1958-59 was relatively cold at DCA, with average temperatures of 35.6 during December-February and 37.1 from December 1, 1958 to March 20, 1959. However, DCA received only 4.9 inches of snow for the season. The winter of 1979-80, on the other hand, was relatively warm at DCA, with average temperatures of 39.0 during December-February and 40.0 from December 1, 1979 to March 20, 1980. However, DCA received 20.1 inches of snow for the season (including 0.3 inches in October). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Despite 1963-64's positioning in the longer term -PDO cycle and raw monthly values reflecting negative, it had a pretty decent +PDO configuration in the SST anomalies during the autumn. It is a very strange winter indeed. I am not hating on January this year as much as I normally would in an El Nino and 1964 is good reason. I agree that 1958-59 and 1979-80 are not good analogs but their outcomes reflect what can go wrong when you have a higher solar state coupled with a warm event. I suppose a more likely concern would be a 1953-54 winter or even a 2006-07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Taking away 02-03 since it is probably the weakest of the 4, if I was doing an outlook tomorrow, I wouldn't take the snow amounts too literally...11-12/23-24 both had 5" in March which DCA/persistence argues against....once you factor that in and the DCA adjustment, you are really looking at a 14-16" winter when gleaning from those winters...I'd also temper December in 1964 by a few inches as I don't see a cold December like that and also 64 had the fluke 5" March 31st event that is incredibly improbable now....add in a slight DCA/death valley/FAA joke adjustment and you are looking at a 20-22" winter...If I were putting an outlook out this afternoon and had no time to look at any new data, I'd probably do soemthing like this DEC: +1 Jan: Normal February: -3 DCA snow - 14"-18" Logical and perfectly stated. It seems like this would be the best route for DC at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I just hope we end up cold and dry, while NY and NE are cold and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 PS - I really appreciate the discussion among the more knowledgeable among us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Thanks Matt. We once again were reminded how powerful the EPO vortex can be and in the face of the amazing stratospheric / mid winter -AO period, it didn't lose the battle last winter. As the northern hemisphere turned exceedingly cold and snowy, we remained winterless during our only hope last year. Thankfully, the circumstances this year could and most likely will promote its stability to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 cold isn't as cold anymore...the 81-2010 norms in Jan/feb are pretty torchy...not as hard to get a minus month....DEC didn't change much Makes sense. I guess I don't think of pos or neg departures over a month as indicative of what I feel is warm or cold. Mine is less of a scientific/statistical view of what's cold or not and more of an "emotional" feel for it. Either way, I appreciate the updates and the knowledge you guys are bringing to the table. I'm really interested to see how the analogs shake out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 You certainly have to smooth the outliers a bit and also see what happened in the surrounding area and see if DCA had a localized anomaly..near misses etc. Absolutely, but just to hammer home the point about how hit or miss snowfall predictions can be for a given location, consider that not only was December 1979 to February 1980 much warmer than December 1958 to February 1959 at DCA, it was also slightly dryer. DCA recorded only 4.86 inches of precipitation during those three months in 1979-80, which was even less than the 5.34 inches of precipitation recorded for the same three months in 1958-59. Nonetheless, during December 1979 to February 1980, DCA received 13.7 inches of snow versus 4.9 inches of snow during December 1958 to February 1959. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Thanks Matt. We once again were reminded how powerful the EPO vortex can be and in the face of the amazing stratospheric / mid winter -AO period, it didn't lose the battle last winter. As the northern hemisphere turned exceedingly cold and snowy, we remained winterless during our only hope last year. Thankfully, the circumstances this year could and most likely will promote its stability to change. Last winter is a very good example of how we can get screwed despite a nice -AO event in late January/February. If you look at the mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere last winter, its almost comical how we (the CONUS) were the only region to torch....thanks to that vicious +EPO vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Having all the extreme cold on the Asian side has been typical the last few winters, including 09-10 when we had the PV parked over Siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Last winter is a very good example of how we can get screwed despite a nice -AO event in late January/February. If you look at the mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere last winter, its almost comical how we (the CONUS) were the only region to torch....thanks to that vicious +EPO vortex. From a long range perspective, I gave that -AO period "too much factoring" for mid-winter and screwed up. As we got closer, it became painfully obvious we would be the only area in the NH to not experience its wrath. We can forget from our experience how insane the cold and snow was for everyone else late Jan. Lessons were learned and the positives that came from it were new ideas about "La Nina-enhanced and suppressed" I came up with to potentially look out for in future winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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