usedtobe Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 http://www.accuweath...st-winter/69820 Yay? Jason's and the rest of the CWG gangs take on the forecast http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 15, 2012 Author Share Posted August 15, 2012 I believe BWI is a better spot for CAD (someone correct me if I'm wrong), and DC/Balt specials aren't as rare as you think. I can't recall a decent event (>4") at BWI that PHL missed outside of 1/30/10 they killed us in 00/01` (~12" vs. 30"+) they killed us 12/25/10 and I can go on but somehow, the numbers don't lie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Lundberg a few days ago was saying that he thought that this could resemble the winter of '76-'77. I only care about getting near normal snow for once. yeah...I'm thinking about going -8 to -12 for January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 I hope FaithInTheFlakes takes off more this winter. I love annoying catchphrases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Jason's and the rest of the CWG gangs take on the forecast http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang Thank you, Wes... As usual you all rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 I can't recall a decent event (>4") at BWI that PHL missed outside of 1/30/10 they killed us in 00/01` (~12" vs. 30"+) they killed us 12/25/10 and I can go on but somehow, the numbers don't lie What about January 25, 2000? Didn't DC/Baltimore do better than Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Much more in-depth writeup by the CWG guys. Nicely done. Just watch using apostrophes to pluralize words! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Much more in-depth writeup by the CWG guys. Nicely done. Just watch using apostrophes to pluralize words! WE ARE ALL AMERICAN'S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 WE ARE ALL AMERICAN'S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 15, 2012 Author Share Posted August 15, 2012 What about January 25, 2000? Didn't DC/Baltimore do better than Philly? yeah, I believe we did better (I know BWI did), but that sort of proves my point that you have to go back 13 seasons to find 2 storms of note (1/25/00 & 1/30/10) that had PHL substantially less than BWI....but whatever, numbers don't lie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 yeah, I believe we did better (I know BWI did), but that sort of proves my point that you have to go back 13 seasons to find 2 storms of note (1/25/00 & 1/30/10) that had PHL substantially less than BWI....but whatever, numbers don't lie I'd imagine there were some southern overrunning events or clippers that dropped down pretty far in which DC and Baltimore did a little better than Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 yeah, I believe we did better (I know BWI did), but that sort of proves my point that you have to go back 13 seasons to find 2 storms of note (1/25/00 & 1/30/10) that had PHL substantially less than BWI....but whatever, numbers don't lie 11/11/87 1/26/87 Philly averages slightly more than BWI (though essentially the same) and given the relatively close proximity, they will have a high covariance....so its tough to find many storms where BWI did significantly better. Most of the time it will be small nickle and dime events where the differences play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 yeah, I believe we did better (I know BWI did), but that sort of proves my point that you have to go back 13 seasons to find 2 storms of note (1/25/00 & 1/30/10) that had PHL substantially less than BWI....but whatever, numbers don't lie Can't argue with you there. I know it does suck considering how close we are to them relatively speaking. I remember being super frustrated during 01/22/2005, how they got around a foot and I was left with 4 inches just east of DC. But just gotta learn to appreciate whatever we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Anybody have a forecast for January 18 yet? The wife is due that day and I need to be prepared for the drive to the hospital in Arlington. Thanks. Ask master of disaster, he is awesome at long range forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Think we can wrap up this thread, Accuwx doubles down on cold and snowy winter: http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2012/0815/Snow-in-August-It-s-steamy-now-but-forecasters-see-a-big-winter-coming And, it looks as if the I-95-corridor cities from Washington to Boston will need to make sure the plows are gassed up and rock salt plentiful.“I think the East Coast is going to have some battles with some big storms,” says Paul Pastelok, Accu-Weather’s lead long-term forecaster in State College, Pa. Using this summer’s weather as a template, Pastelok looked for what happened in the winter in other years when a weak to moderate El Nino formed. He found a similar pattern in 2002/2003 and 1953/1954. Pastelok thinks the Southeast could actually get the worst of it this winter. He can envision flooding in the late fall followed by snow and ice this winter all the way down to the Gulf Coast. “Tallahassee could have some snow and ice issues this winter,” he forecasts. How much for Tallahassee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 WBALs radio station mentioned the accuweather forecast this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 WBALs radio station mentioned the accuweather forecast this morning Sad...... What's their opinion on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Sad...... What's their opinion on it? They didnt have one, it wasnt Tony or Tom, just a news anchor mentioning what the prediction said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 WBALs radio station mentioned the accuweather forecast this morning Everybody is.. people complain about Accu but fall into their trap by making this **** go viral across the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Everybody is.. people complain about Accu but fall into their trap by making this **** go viral across the country. Agreed, my husband sent me an email from work this morning from a coworker who had sent him the link to the article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 16, 2012 Author Share Posted August 16, 2012 who knows if the Accuwx forecast ever pans out, but my inner most weenie would prefer seeing that forecast to keep hope alive vs. them coming out with the opposite forecast I guess I need more fantasy in my life when it comes to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 who knows if the Accuwx forecast ever pans out, but my inner most weenie would prefer seeing that forecast to keep hope alive vs. them coming out with the opposite forecast I guess I need more fantasy in my life when it comes to snow I think (almost) all of us want a good winter, but that doesn't mean that poorly done outlooks should be given airplay as if they have any credibility. It's good that CWG called them out, but like Ian said, it's people's fascination that keeps them going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 I think (almost) all of us want a good winter, but that doesn't mean that poorly done outlooks should be given airplay as if they have any credibility. It's good that CWG called them out, but like Ian said, it's people's fascination that keeps them going. My BFF sent me the CWG article instead of the Accuweather one, she knows better lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Think we can wrap up this thread, Accuwx doubles down on cold and snowy winter: http://www.csmonitor...g-winter-coming How much for Tallahassee? If it goes down like it did last year, more than BWI and DCA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corrie Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 WTOP's headline calls for "Snowmageddon II" already....It's only August! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 WTOP's headline calls for "Snowmageddon II" already....It's only August! That's because BB is their winter forecaster, batten down those garbage covers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 WTOP's headline calls for "Snowmageddon II" already....It's only August! That is super irresponsible. I really hate the media when it comes to weather. Good lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Good thing CWG is there to squash the crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 WTOP's headline calls for "Snowmageddon II" already....It's only August! The ****?? That's not jumping the gun, that is full on Usain Bolt-ing the gun right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 "above normal" could literally be like 1 inch above normal. And yet...WTOP says they mean snowmageddon II...good gosh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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