WxMidwest Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Ah guys, it's all about the "BOX" pattern in October during EL Nino years, this will tell us about the blocking in the Atlantic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 February in El Ninos is almost guaranteed to have blocking...in that sense, enso can very very useful. I think there has been 1 Nino off the top of my head that didn't have it and that was Feb 1992. Feb '73 was kind of crappy so that may have lacked blocking as well, but I didn't pull up the maps. But literally all other Ninos...even the terrible ones...had it. Obviously snowfall has some other factors in there. For DCA, the STJ is a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Lot's of 06-07 talk out there...for IAD the monthly temps were roughly Dec. +5 Jan +6 Feb -8....14.7" of snow/sleet...I actually enjoyed the frigid February and sleet storm but January was ridiculously warm...hated that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Well...who knows if it is right, but the euro seasonal would make JI happy. I'm sure a tweet will be sent out about this from you know who later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 February in El Ninos is almost guaranteed to have blocking...in that sense, enso can very very useful. I think there has been 1 Nino off the top of my head that didn't have it and that was Feb 1992. Feb '73 was kind of crappy so that may have lacked blocking as well, but I didn't pull up the maps. But literally all other Ninos...even the terrible ones...had it. Obviously snowfall has some other factors in there. For DCA, the STJ is a big one. Feb 1973 had an ao of something like 0.7 and a nao of -0.2 or 0.3 so not much blocking where you wanted it even though there was a southern stream. There was nothing to hold in cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Feb 1973 had an ao of something like 0.7 and a nao of -0.2 or 0.3 so not much blocking where you wanted it even though there was a southern stream. There was nothing to hold in cold air. it was around average temps but of course no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Interesting fantasy range: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/new-computer-model-outlook-through-the-winter-1/69413 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/new-computer-model-outlook-through-the-winter-1/69413 I know, I know...everyone hear loathes Accunever with a fiery passion. Anyway, the Euro seems to be trying to go in a direction more favorable for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 So little talk of Winter in this subforum. I, for one am excited. Maybe not super excited and expecting a blockbuster Winter, as that would be unrealistic. But I do feel more optimistic about this one, compared to last year when it was becoming clear it was going to suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 The CFS (the new one) actually now shows a torch (relativel speaking) for the central and southeast US for winter...the temp pattern looks La Nina-ish minus February. The older version of the CFS continues to show a cold northeast throughout the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 The CFS (the new one) actually now shows a torch (relativel speaking) for the central and southeast US for winter...the temp pattern looks La Nina-ish minus February. The older version of the CFS continues to show a cold northeast throughout the winter. Let us reiterate what has been said on many a long-range thread: First, it's the CFS. Also, the CFS' forecast changes nearly day to day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Live by the CFS, die by the CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-for-i-95-corridor-northeast-winter/69820 Yay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 http://www.accuweath...st-winter/69820 Yay? Surprise! Mostly nino climo, and of course the 95 corridor has to be in above normal snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 http://www.accuweath...st-winter/69820 Yay? Saw this. As Ion would say: meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Accuwx predicts above-normal snowfall for the I-95 corridor? I'm absolutely stunned at this unprecedented turn of events... Next you're going to tell me that JB is predicting above-normal snowfall for the I-95 corridor. Like THAT's ever happened before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Accuwx predicts above-normal snowfall for the I-95 corridor? I'm absolutely stunned at this unprecedented turn of events... Next you're going to tell me that JB is predicting above-normal snowfall for the I-95 corridor. Like THAT's ever happened before... Even a broken clock is right twice a day, they are bound to be right one of these winters if they call for above average every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Lundberg a few days ago was saying that he thought that this could resemble the winter of '76-'77. I only care about getting near normal snow for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Anybody have a forecast for January 18 yet? The wife is due that day and I need to be prepared for the drive to the hospital in Arlington. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Lundberg a few days ago was saying that he thought that this could resemble the winter of '76-'77. I only care about getting near normal snow for once. Any year is technically up for grabs... 76-77 had a weak Nino (after coming out of a strong Nina) and -QBO that matches up with the forecast ENSO fairly well, but it will likely be the opposite in terms of the AMO and PDO this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Saw this. As Ion would say: meh. 75% chance this winter sucks locally. BUT Feb could be rockin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Anybody have a forecast for January 18 yet? The wife is due that day and I need to be prepared for the drive to the hospital in Arlington. Thanks. JB says 6-12" with lolli's to 18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Anybody have a forecast for January 18 yet? The wife is due that day and I need to be prepared for the drive to the hospital in Arlington. Thanks. Oooo! Congrats! I'm due a month before you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Oooo! Congrats! I'm due a month before you guys Congrats! OT here, but when you had that thread about a metal-y taste in your mouth and I said you were pregnant...was I right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Congrats! OT here, but when you had that thread about a metal-y taste in your mouth and I said you were pregnant...was I right?? lol, thanks and no I believe that thread was made months before we found out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 JB says 6-12" with lolli's to 18". Crap. I'll start driving the night before - traffic on the Beltway and 66 is going to be a nightmare. But if we have a window, I'll at least be able to watch the snow fall. Oooo! Congrats! I'm due a month before you guys Awesome. Congrats to you, too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 lol @ accuweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Anybody have a forecast for January 18 yet? The wife is due that day and I need to be prepared for the drive to the hospital in Arlington. Thanks. Sunny, 65F, but pattern change coming any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 15, 2012 Author Share Posted August 15, 2012 http://www.accuweath...st-winter/69820 Yay? all the times BWI has been screwed and PHL has cashed in over the years, it's hard to fathom that their average snowfall is only 2.6"/year higher than BWI (per their article) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 all the times BWI has been screwed and PHL has cashed in over the years, it's hard to fathom that their average snowfall is only 2.6"/year higher than BWI (per their article) I believe BWI is a better spot for CAD (someone correct me if I'm wrong), and DC/Balt specials aren't as rare as you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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