CFS Long Range (as in Winter)

[Deck Pic]

Even a nino in the 1 - 1.3 range isn't something that's concerning. At least I don't think it is. At the very least it opens the door for potential and we really need that coming off the heels of a multi-year cold enso.

Probably going to get going later rather than soon but at some point we will see an active stj. Then it comes down to the setup. I see no evidence that points towards another crappy +AO/NAO type of winter. We'll have our chances this winter. It's foolish to ever predict a big winter in our area because the odds are so bad but there is no reason to believe we can't go slightly above climo with at least one 6"+ storm.

I'm not so sure we'd go above climo in a weaker niño. Though there are obviously other factors to consider and the sample is small. Our last 2 weaker ninos we couldnt really get cold air masses and a southern stream to match up. We either had neither or one without the other. In feb 2007 we got the cold air and some blocking but never a good storm track. All our frozen came from a clipper, OV low and an Apps runner. In 2005 we finally got a quasi southern stream at the end of February but the storms were moisture starved and the airmasses were insufficient.

I'm not confident a low end moderate niño will be a big snow producer. Probably either in the 8-12" range at DCA even with blocking. Or the 12-15" range if we can get a 6" plus event and/or some December or march 3-6" super clipper or fluke.

If you locked in a 1.0 3.4 departure and all other factors were expected to be neutral/climo or at least not hostile, I'd probably go 10-14" at DCA and call it a day.

[Bob Chill]

I'm not so sure we'd go above climo in a weaker niño. Though there are obviously other factors to consider and the sample is small. Our last 2 weaker ninos we couldnt really get cold air masses and a southern stream to match up. We either had neither or one without the other. In feb 2007 we got the cold air and some blocking but never a good storm track. All our frozen came from a clipper, OV low and an Apps runner. In 2005 we finally got a quasi southern stream at the end of February but the storms were moisture starved and the airmasses were insufficient.

I'm not confident a low end moderate niño will be a big snow producer. Probably either in the 8-12" range at DCA even with blocking. Or the 12-15" range if we can get a 6" plus event and/or some December or march 3-6" super clipper or fluke.

If you locked in a 1.0 3.4 departure and all other factors were expected to be neutral/climo or at least not hostile, I'd probably go 10-14" at DCA and call it a day.

Very good points.

I'm hanging my hat on the other indices cooperating. Weaker versions of 02-03 and 09-10 (in the indicies dept. not snowfall). My 2 favorite analogs are 86-87 and 06-07. I know 06-07 was a bit of a dog but it could have easilty gone the other way with a little help. I like 02-03 as well. Absolutely not saying that we get a big year. That will take some serious beating the odds.

We'll see how things are looking with the tendencies for the ao/nao in Nov-Dec. If Dec comes in with another big +AO then I'm going to be really worried. Until then I'll remain optimisitic and be just ever so slightly bullish with a slightly above climo snowfall.

[PhineasC]

Very good points.

I'm hanging my hat on the other indices cooperating. Weaker versions of 02-03 and 09-10 (in the indicies dept. not snowfall). My 2 favorite analogs are 86-87 and 06-07. I know 06-07 was a bit of a dog but it could have easilty gone the other way with a little help. I like 02-03 as well. Absolutely not saying that we get a big year. That will take some serious beating the odds.

We'll see how things are looking with the tendencies for the ao/nao in Nov-Dec. If Dec comes in with another big +AO then I'm going to be really worried. Until then I'll remain optimisitic and be just ever so slightly bullish with a slightly above climo snowfall.

Let's set the bar at a normal year and forget about the big year. A big year in this area is mostly dependent on getting a couple big storms which are hard to predict.

[Bob Chill]

Let's set the bar at a normal year and forget about the big year. A big year in this area is mostly dependent on getting a couple big storms which are hard to predict.

I wish we could get a normal year for once. My climo is about 22" but for the last decade it's feast or famine. A "normal" year would be a huge win for us.

[gymengineer]

I wish we could get a normal year for once. My climo is about 22" but for the last decade it's feast or famine. A "normal" year would be a huge win for us.

I think "normal" years still seemed crappy, so people tend to think they were worse than what happened. In Rockville, you actually did experience several near normal seasons in the last decade...04/05 and 05/06 were both a bit above 22" in Rockville and 03/04 was around 20" in Rockville.

[brad1551]

This -PDO at the moment does not look like it is going anywhere soon. :-(

[Deck Pic]

Kind of an interesting observation.

Re: The dynamical model averages(statistical models arent very good) in the last 4 Niño events.

2002, 2004, 2006, 2009 all had exactly a .2 degree cold bias for DJF tri monthly in the July Averages. Probably coincidence but would make

This niño a 1.1 which is still risky territory but could be decent.

NASA and COLA CCSM3 (which is a similar coupled model to the CFS) are warm biased models so I wouldnt put too much stock in their exact output right now. When you account for their bias, low 1's seems reasonable. I don't think there is a lot of current evidence that niño will go above 1.2 but I hope I am wrong. That is still risky territory for good snow though at least one month or 2 should be cold.

this is looking pretty good...was talking to Will about it as well.....I am not that jazzed about having a great winter...fortunately there is not much skill at this point...weak nino after extended nina...strong -PDO regime......2006-07 is probably our best analog right now...68-69 and 51-52 aren't bad...2 opposite examples of blocking versus not much blocking.......If I had to forecast right now I'd probably go for a +1 to +2 winter with 10" at DCA...hope I am wrong...of course that would be better than last winter...goes without saying...we should get a period of blocking...likely later in the season...hopefully we can match that up with good source regions for cold and a half decent storm track.....even in October/November I think my skill is only somewhat above flipping a coin....but it is above....but there is a lot of room for me to bust badly....

[Deck Pic]

this is looking pretty good...was talking to Will about it as well.....I am not that jazzed about having a great winter...fortunately there is not much skill at this point...weak nino after extended nina...strong -PDO regime......2006-07 is probably our best analog right now...68-69 and 51-52 aren't bad...2 opposite examples of blocking versus not much blocking.......If I had to forecast right now I'd probably go for a +1 to +2 winter with 10" at DCA...hope I am wrong...of course that would be better than last winter...goes without saying...we should get a period of blocking...likely later in the season...hopefully we can match that up with good source regions for cold and a half decent storm track.....even in October/November I think my skill is only somewhat above flipping a coin....but it is above....but there is a lot of room for me to bust badly....

as far as old analogs you can't put too much stock in them, but I think 23-24 is probably the best one we have...kind of normalish temps once you convert to modern times....snow probably normalish too....I'd probably throw it in there if nino is on the weaker side

[SoCoWx]

this is looking pretty good...was talking to Will about it as well.....I am not that jazzed about having a great winter...fortunately there is not much skill at this point...weak nino after extended nina...strong -PDO regime......2006-07 is probably our best analog right now...68-69 and 51-52 aren't bad...2 opposite examples of blocking versus not much blocking.......If I had to forecast right now I'd probably go for a +1 to +2 winter with 10" at DCA...hope I am wrong...of course that would be better than last winter...goes without saying...we should get a period of blocking...likely later in the season...hopefully we can match that up with good source regions for cold and a half decent storm track.....even in October/November I think my skill is only somewhat above flipping a coin....but it is above....but there is a lot of room for me to bust badly....

No offense, but I hope your dead wrong. Dead wrong all over. Those analogs scream a repeat of last Winter for southern VA. The winter of 06-07, we only had half an inch of snow the entire Winter. Missed the February storm. And aside from February, it was pretty much a torch in this neck of the woods.

[Deck Pic]

No offense, but I hope your dead wrong. Dead wrong all over. Those analogs scream a repeat of last Winter for southern VA. The winter of 06-07, we only had half an inch of snow the entire Winter. Missed the February storm. And aside from February, it was pretty much a torch in this neck of the woods.

Persistence is a b-itch as well. I hope I am wrong too. But I definitely wouldn't favor a big winter unless niño can get in the moderate- strong range. I'd probably lean warm too. That isn't any bold prediction of course. Winter generally sucks here.

[SoCoWx]

Persistence is a b-itch as well. I hope I am wrong too. But I definitely wouldn't favor a big winter unless niño can get in the moderate- strong range. I'd probably lean warm too. That isn't any bold prediction of course. Winter generally sucks here.

Well, in this particular part of VA, the average winter high is about 48/49. The average snowfall is 10". If I could have a normal winter like that, then I'd be happy. It's not a lot. Certainly not cold or snowy to many people on these forums who expect much more. But for southeastern VA, that would count as a decent winter.

Hell, I'd even settle for 6 inches of snow throughout the winter. But anything less than that, and it starts to become painfully uneventful. 2008-2009 wasn't bad. A little weird. But not bad. We had some cold. It snowed twice in November which was odd. Then it basically didn't snow the entire Winter. Then snow again around the first of March and we got 3".

[mitchnick]

Persistence is a b-itch as well. I hope I am wrong too. But I definitely wouldn't favor a big winter unless niño can get in the moderate- strong range. I'd probably lean warm too. That isn't any bold prediction of course. Winter generally sucks here.

after last year, even a normal snowfall year will seem like a big year to most

I know it will for me

[Bob Chill]

Persistence is a b-itch as well. I hope I am wrong too. But I definitely wouldn't favor a big winter unless niño can get in the moderate- strong range. I'd probably lean warm too. That isn't any bold prediction of course. Winter generally sucks here.

One good miller A can really change totals though. I totally agree that we'll be a bit warmer than norm this winter. It's almost a given nowadays. There's no reason to dismiss the possibility of a sizeable event in a Nino and we can get a good shot at a miller A.

[Deck Pic]

One good miller A can really change totals though. I totally agree that we'll be a bit warmer than norm this winter. It's almost a given nowadays. There's no reason to dismiss the possibility of a sizeable event in a Nino and we can get a good shot at a miller A.

I can't think of a single weak nino where we got a sizeable miller A.

[Deck Pic]

after last year, even a normal snowfall year will seem like a big year to most

I know it will for me

BWI has been normal or below in every weak niño except 77-78 and that was the beginning of a big +PDO regime and 2nd year nino with a massive cold air dump. Pretty unlikely we will see a winter like that. If niño is weak no reason to expect a big winter. Normal is achievable though.

[ORH_wxman]

I can't think of a single weak nino where we got a sizeable miller A.

I think 2/24-25/05 was the closest we came to achieving that...that looked like it could be really good but it really kind of crapped out at the last second. Still a half decent event, but mostly a footnote rather than anything worthy of KU discussion. It never looked like a blockbuster, but perhaps bordelrine cat 1 KU a couple days out.

[Huffwx]

BWI has been normal or below in every weak niño except 77-78 and that was the beginning of a big +PDO regime and 2nd year nino with a massive cold air dump. Pretty unlikely we will see a winter like that. If niño is weak no reason to expect a big winter. Normal is achievable though.

What are you using to define a moderate el nino-- what years? Is it 1.2--

[mitchnick]

I think 2/24-25/05 was the closest we came to achieving that...that looked like it could be really good but it really kind of crapped out at the last second. Still a half decent event, but mostly a footnote rather than anything worthy of KU discussion. It never looked like a blockbuster, but perhaps bordelrine cat 1 KU a couple days out.

looking back at Wunderground's history at BWI on those dates, it wasn't a bad storm at all for us

I just wish I could remember it

[Ian]

im pulling 2002 up all over the place in various looks at ytd climo etc recently

ill go with it.

[Deck Pic]

I think 2/24-25/05 was the closest we came to achieving that...that looked like it could be really good but it really kind of crapped out at the last second. Still a half decent event, but mostly a footnote rather than anything worthy of KU discussion. It never looked like a blockbuster, but perhaps bordelrine cat 1 KU a couple days out.

I really liked that storm...almost 5" for me...snowed for 24 straight hours...radar never quit......constant backbuilding.....It was a very wintry storm and we lucked out by getting our best rates in early evening....but it shows what happens in a weak nino...you don't get enough of a moisture feed...that storm was starved for having so much promise

[Ji]

Discouraging prospects for winter again and time is running out to get a moderate el niño. Maybe we can hope for a jan 82 event minus the plane crash

[Huffwx]

The storm a few days later -- Feb 28 was the best one down my way. We pulled 7 inches from .9 (all snow save a little drizzle late afternoon) closer to 10 inches in the higher elevations.

[easternsnowman]

Weak ninos are usually pretty good from philly north.

[Ellinwood]

Weak ninos are usually pretty good from philly north.

That's great because we all live from Philly north.

[easternsnowman]

That's great because we all live from Philly north.

Sorry about that, I do hope you guys get a good winter!

[mitchnick]

Weak ninos are usually pretty good from philly north.

if either CFS model is to be believed, both continue to show (as they have for months) that there will be below normal precip for the winter from PA north

of course, who knows if either is right but it's not something I'd like to consistently see on long range models if I lived PA north

[SoCoWx]

That's great because we all live from Philly north.

What the blue pony said.

[usedtobe]

Weak ninos are usually pretty good from philly north.

Not really, since 1950 there have been 9 ninos with the 3 month 3.4 temp anomaly at 1C or less and only 2 or the 9 were above normal at nyc which is north of PHL. Bos is almost a toss us but slightly favors below normal years if you use the median but two years were so far above normal that the mean is above normal for BOS. In reality we need more years than 9 to know for certain how a weak nino impacts anyone.

[easternsnowman]

Not really, since 1950 there have been 9 ninos with the 3 month 3.4 temp anomaly at 1C or less and only 2 or the 9 were above normal at nyc which is north of PHL. Bos is almost a toss us but slightly favors below normal years if you use the median but two years were so far above normal that the mean is above normal for BOS. In reality we need more years than 9 to know for certain how a weak nino impacts anyone.

I guess I was looking at the last one in 2004-2005.

[ORH_wxman]

I guess I was looking at the last one in 2004-2005.

'06-'07 technically qualifies as a 1.0 peak now on the trimonthly when CPC updated its anomalies...however, that Nino was stronger MEI-wise than any of the other weak Ninos...it really ramped up late fall...but it disintigrated very quickly after its peak.