CFS Long Range (as in Winter)

[griteater]

I need a favor from a stat keeper. I'm looking for the start and end date and snowfall amount of every 6+" storm in DC for the following years:

51-55

57-58

65-66

76-77

86-87

02-03

06-07

09-10

I have an idea I want to research and if there is a correlation then it's probably going to be a really good dataset for future reference.

Should be able to find the data you need here - http://climate.usurf.usu.edu/products/data.php

[Bob Chill]

I've started crunching some data. I shortened my list of analog years to include only Ninos that followed Ninas and/or Ninos that followed multi-year Ninas / neg neutral enso (86-87, 02-03, & 09-10).

Decent set of analogs for the upcoming winter but my purpose is to analyze the major indices for the 5 days leading up to 6+" storms and not try to make guesses about this upcoming winter. I included 2 sub 6" storms to see if anything noticeable popped up and it did. It appears negative pna's are bad for big storms but the dataset is way to small still to jump to any conclusions.

I haven't finished with 02-03, 06-07, and 09-10 yet so this attached data only covers 10 of the 20 storms. I'm looking forward to 02-03, and 09-10. If there is a classic combination of the AO/NAO/PNA during the 5 day lead then those years should illustrate it pretty well.

I plan on extending this data to all storms that exceed 6" and not just Nino years. Had to start somewhere though. It's going to keep me busy for a while.

Once I'm done it should be a great set of data. I have a feeling some solid correlations are going to show up with the indices during the 5 day lead. It will be fun to apply the findings when tracking storms in the mid-range this upcoming winter.

[mitchnick]

June Euro seasonal forecast is now out

Here's ENSO for Oct-Dec:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/group_public/seasonal_charts_public_sst!2m%20temperature!4%20months!Tropics!201206!ensemble%20mean/

Here's the best you can do for temps, the S. American map (if you go back to the prior months, temps in the east are cooling from the summer):

http://www.ecmwf.int...ensemble mean!/

Precip (typical NINO w/AN precip in SE, though not by much on this forecast map):

http://www.ecmwf.int...!ensemble mean/

Looks like a west based, low end mod NINO; I'll take that at this point

[usedtobe]

I've started crunching some data. I shortened my list of analog years to include only Ninos that followed Ninas and/or Ninos that followed multi-year Ninas / neg neutral enso (86-87, 02-03, & 09-10).

Decent set of analogs for the upcoming winter but my purpose is to analyze the major indices for the 5 days leading up to 6+" storms and not try to make guesses about this upcoming winter. I included 2 sub 6" storms to see if anything noticeable popped up and it did. It appears negative pna's are bad for big storms but the dataset is way to small still to jump to any conclusions.

I haven't finished with 02-03, 06-07, and 09-10 yet so this attached data only covers 10 of the 20 storms. I'm looking forward to 02-03, and 09-10. If there is a classic combination of the AO/NAO/PNA during the 5 day lead then those years should illustrate it pretty well.

I plan on extending this data to all storms that exceed 6" and not just Nino years. Had to start somewhere though. It's going to keep me busy for a while.

Once I'm done it should be a great set of data. I have a feeling some solid correlations are going to show up with the indices during the 5 day lead. It will be fun to apply the findings when tracking storms in the mid-range this upcoming winter.

Bob, I did this graph/ these graphs of 4 inch or greater events for DCA.

I also did a ao/enso graph for snows 4 inch events that showed pretty much what D sutherland showed with the graph below which looks at KU storms

[Bob Chill]

Thanks for posting those again Wes! I saved them this time.

I'm very interested in the 5 day lead for storms and identifying correlations w/ the major indices. Basically, building a dataset that will help as a personal forecasting tool when the models bounce all over during days 2-5. It's going to take some work though. Do you think I may be wasting my time or is this something worthwhile?

One of the caveats is storm type. Millers, clippers, and overrunners work alot differently and having a dataset that includes all storm types lumped together won't be as accurate. Maybe once I'm done someone can go through it and stratify the data based on storm type.

[ravensrule]

Rob Guarino's latest thoughts on this upcoming winter:

http://www.liveweath...1122&Itemid=179

Winter cannot come soon enough .

[Bob Chill]

The one caveat to making any type of projection for this winter is the state of the NAO. Any type of anomalous +NAO will not = snowy along the EC. OH valley would be stoked though.

[HM]

Rob Guarino's latest thoughts on this upcoming winter:

http://www.liveweath...1122&Itemid=179

Winter cannot come soon enough .

Rob Writes:

"

Lets take a higher look up into the Stratosphere and see what's going on right now.

We are looking at 1979-2008 numbers and see that it will stay warm in the USA for a few more months, probably into September as far as above normal temps in the U.S. Most of this will be in the Southwest and part of the Midwest. This is the lower 1mb of the atmosphere or up to a few thousand feet..That would be from the ground up to the highest building in the U.S. right now in NYC the new Freedom Tower.

If the Stratosphere dips below average going into the Winter Months and stays in that position we could see a repeat of last winter. The Stratosphere couldn't stay warm enough to provoke a typical winter last winter heat was rising but cooled things out aloft.

Abnormal cooling is occurring at the 70mb level too and this where it becomes SIGNIFICANT enough to get winter weather (snow & cold) into action come December to March 2012-2013. What this all means is you can't have it warm at the surface (like last winter) and warm aloft...you need that mix going on to create storms."

What a bunch of nonsense. This is stunningly poor science.

[griteater]

What a bunch of nonsense. This is stunningly poor science.

If he's an award winning met, I'm Einstein

[Ian]

Oh no stratospheric warming talk already

[Ellinwood]

Oh no stratospheric warming talk already

I'm using the relative position of Saturn's rings to make my winter forecast.

[stormitecture]

I am really losing faith in this areas ability to produce interesting weather. Uggggg, is Florida really in my future again? Seabreezesand the wet season regularity FTW (uggg I just went there).

[Bob Chill]

Our winters aren't really that complicated to figure out. Rain is more likely than snow. Nino's are better than Nina's. Too much of either is a bad thing. When we don't have blocking we shouldn't be expecting anything. Bad patterns that are stubborn take at least 2 weeks longer than forecasted to change. Timing of split flow vorts cannot be forecast with any accuracy outside of 2-3 days. Miller B's rarely produce significant snow except on the models. And SSW's rarely have anything to do with sensible wx in the MA.

[MillzPirate]

Our winters aren't really that complicated to figure out. Rain is more likely than snow. Nino's are better than Nina's. Too much of either is a bad thing. When we don't have blocking we shouldn't be expecting anything. Bad patterns that are stubborn take at least 2 weeks longer than forecasted to change. Timing of split flow vorts cannot be forecast with any accuracy outside of 2-3 days. Miller B's rarely produce significant snow except on the models. And SSW's rarely have anything to do with sensible wx in the MA.

Pretty much sums it up. Good post.

[HM]

If he's an award winning met, I'm Einstein

Forecasting and understanding meteorology are obviously 2 different things. He may have gotten some winters right in the past or he may not have; but if that is the logic that goes into them every year, I don't really want to know/care then.

Oh no stratospheric warming talk already

Get used to it. lol

[EastCoast NPZ]

I'm using the relative position of Saturn's rings to make my winter forecast.

OK. So what are the rings signaling for this winter?

[Eskimo Joe]

OK. So what are the rings signaling for this winter?

Sunny during the day, dark during the nights. Only time well tell though.

[mattie g]

OK. So what are the rings signaling for this winter?

Cold/dry, warm/wet.

[PhineasC]

I am really losing faith in this areas ability to produce interesting weather. Uggggg, is Florida really in my future again? Seabreezesand the wet season regularity FTW (uggg I just went there).

We've had an historic run for this area over the past several years. If you are a "chaser" and expected tornados or hurricanes than I guess it is pretty boring.

[Huffwx]

What a bunch of nonsense. This is stunningly poor science.

You mean, he's not a "well respected" met?

He needs to stick to climatology. Climo says a low end moderate el nino is the best "chance" for a decent to above normal winter. But, chance-- probability.

[Ian]

We've had an historic run for this area over the past several years. If you are a "chaser" and expected tornados or hurricanes than I guess it is pretty boring.

The last yr or so has been pretty boring other than big heat. June was solid for storms as far as this area goes.

[HM]

I'm using the relative position of Saturn's rings to make my winter forecast.

lol...

That method is doomed when we lose Saturn's rings, but that's not our problem now!

You mean, he's not a "well respected" met?

He needs to stick to climatology. Climo says a low end moderate el nino is the best "chance" for a decent to above normal winter. But, chance-- probability.

He needs to stick to guessing / forecasting where he can hide behind verification. His explanations and science are close to a butchering. I absolutely hate it when mets like this talk about "atmospheric stability" and simply look at these temperature lines and make conclusions. That is downright absurd, especially the way Rob assessed it in this blog post.

[Deck Pic]

I was telling will the other night that as of now I like a modified 2002-03 analog with less of a favorable pacific (02-03 best pacific ever?). Something like +1, -1, -4 for DCA with 15". More if we get a 10-14"+ KU in late January or February (30 %?) East based -NAO in the means with a mean 50-50 trough/low. Formidable enough dateline forcing to not allow a nasty vortex to sit over or near AK for weeks or months.

This is of course all low confidence folksy broad brushing at this point.

[PhineasC]

I was telling will the other night that as of now I like a modified 2002-03 analog with less of a favorable pacific (02-03 best pacific ever?). Something like +1, -1, -4 for DCA with 15". More if we get a 10-14"+ KU in late January or February (30 %?) East based -NAO in the means with a mean 50-50 trough/low. Formidable enough dateline forcing to not allow a nasty vortex to sit over or near AK for weeks or months.

This is of course all low confidence folksy broad brushing at this point.

Tossing that winter out there will set some tongues wagging.

[North Balti Zen]

Tossing that winter out there will set some tongues wagging.

The qualifier of a "less favorable Pacific" should slow some of the tongues.

[Deck Pic]

The qualifier of a "less favorable Pacific" should slow some of the tongues.

That Was probably one of the best Pacs in the last 60 years.

[MN Transplant]

I was telling will the other night that as of now I like a modified 2002-03 analog with less of a favorable pacific (02-03 best pacific ever?). Something like +1, -1, -4 for DCA with 15". More if we get a 10-14"+ KU in late January or February (30 %?) East based -NAO in the means with a mean 50-50 trough/low. Formidable enough dateline forcing to not allow a nasty vortex to sit over or near AK for weeks or months.

This is of course all low confidence folksy broad brushing at this point.

Dangerous talking about negative departures for both Jan and Feb.

All years in the last 3 decades with negative Jan/Feb combos. Snowfall in Jan/Feb (total seasonal).

2010 - 39.5" (56.1")

2004 - 6.2" (12.4")

2003 - 33.2" (40.4")

1996 - 39.0" (46.0")

1994 - 6.6" (13.2")

1988 - 13.1" (25.0")

1987 - 31.1" (31.1")

1985 - 10.0" (10.3")

1982 - 20.6" (22.5")

[PhineasC]

Any idea what new factor/teleconnection/index will emerge in the fall that has never been discussed before but is suddenly incredibly important and looks horrible for EC winter?

[Huffwx]

I was telling will the other night that as of now I like a modified 2002-03 analog with less of a favorable pacific (02-03 best pacific ever?). Something like +1, -1, -4 for DCA with 15". More if we get a 10-14"+ KU in late January or February (30 %?) East based -NAO in the means with a mean 50-50 trough/low. Formidable enough dateline forcing to not allow a nasty vortex to sit over or near AK for weeks or months.

This is of course all low confidence folksy broad brushing at this point.

15 at DCA is like 30 at IAD and 25 at BWI.

The "pregame" match ups are about as close to favorable as we can get. If we get close to normal, I'd be happy.

[ORH_wxman]

15 at DCA is like 30 at IAD and 25 at BWI.

The "pregame" match ups are about as close to favorable as we can get. If we get close to normal, I'd be happy.

Zwyts is a bit more bullish on the El Nino than I am at this point...but I pretty much agree with his thinking if we can get a solid moderate Nino....I still think there is enough of a chance of a +1.0-1.1 type anomaly in the trimothlies which would probably not be as statistically favorable for DC for a snowy winter. The weaker the El Nino, the more we will probably see this La Nina hangover linger which could produce an unfavorable PAC.

Stronger El Ninos have been able to overcome the la Nina hangovers in -PDO regime such as '09-'10 and to a lesser extent '65-'66 (but that year started off with a horrific pattern but then got better in January and early Feb)....but we'll have to just wait and see where this one goes. Doesn't look like the pattern is favorable for much strengthening throughout this month.