CFS Long Range (as in Winter)

[Ian]

Oh no stratospheric warming talk already

[Ellinwood]

Oh no stratospheric warming talk already

I'm using the relative position of Saturn's rings to make my winter forecast.

[stormitecture]

I am really losing faith in this areas ability to produce interesting weather. Uggggg, is Florida really in my future again? Seabreezesand the wet season regularity FTW (uggg I just went there).

[Bob Chill]

Our winters aren't really that complicated to figure out. Rain is more likely than snow. Nino's are better than Nina's. Too much of either is a bad thing. When we don't have blocking we shouldn't be expecting anything. Bad patterns that are stubborn take at least 2 weeks longer than forecasted to change. Timing of split flow vorts cannot be forecast with any accuracy outside of 2-3 days. Miller B's rarely produce significant snow except on the models. And SSW's rarely have anything to do with sensible wx in the MA.

[MillzPirate]

Our winters aren't really that complicated to figure out. Rain is more likely than snow. Nino's are better than Nina's. Too much of either is a bad thing. When we don't have blocking we shouldn't be expecting anything. Bad patterns that are stubborn take at least 2 weeks longer than forecasted to change. Timing of split flow vorts cannot be forecast with any accuracy outside of 2-3 days. Miller B's rarely produce significant snow except on the models. And SSW's rarely have anything to do with sensible wx in the MA.

Pretty much sums it up. Good post.

[HM]

If he's an award winning met, I'm Einstein

Forecasting and understanding meteorology are obviously 2 different things. He may have gotten some winters right in the past or he may not have; but if that is the logic that goes into them every year, I don't really want to know/care then.

Oh no stratospheric warming talk already

Get used to it. lol

[EastCoast NPZ]

I'm using the relative position of Saturn's rings to make my winter forecast.

OK. So what are the rings signaling for this winter?

[Eskimo Joe]

OK. So what are the rings signaling for this winter?

Sunny during the day, dark during the nights. Only time well tell though.

[mattie g]

OK. So what are the rings signaling for this winter?

Cold/dry, warm/wet.

[PhineasC]

I am really losing faith in this areas ability to produce interesting weather. Uggggg, is Florida really in my future again? Seabreezesand the wet season regularity FTW (uggg I just went there).

We've had an historic run for this area over the past several years. If you are a "chaser" and expected tornados or hurricanes than I guess it is pretty boring.

[Huffwx]

What a bunch of nonsense. This is stunningly poor science.

You mean, he's not a "well respected" met?

He needs to stick to climatology. Climo says a low end moderate el nino is the best "chance" for a decent to above normal winter. But, chance-- probability.

[Ian]

We've had an historic run for this area over the past several years. If you are a "chaser" and expected tornados or hurricanes than I guess it is pretty boring.

The last yr or so has been pretty boring other than big heat. June was solid for storms as far as this area goes.

[HM]

I'm using the relative position of Saturn's rings to make my winter forecast.

lol...

That method is doomed when we lose Saturn's rings, but that's not our problem now!

You mean, he's not a "well respected" met?

He needs to stick to climatology. Climo says a low end moderate el nino is the best "chance" for a decent to above normal winter. But, chance-- probability.

He needs to stick to guessing / forecasting where he can hide behind verification. His explanations and science are close to a butchering. I absolutely hate it when mets like this talk about "atmospheric stability" and simply look at these temperature lines and make conclusions. That is downright absurd, especially the way Rob assessed it in this blog post.

[PhineasC]

I was telling will the other night that as of now I like a modified 2002-03 analog with less of a favorable pacific (02-03 best pacific ever?). Something like +1, -1, -4 for DCA with 15". More if we get a 10-14"+ KU in late January or February (30 %?) East based -NAO in the means with a mean 50-50 trough/low. Formidable enough dateline forcing to not allow a nasty vortex to sit over or near AK for weeks or months.

This is of course all low confidence folksy broad brushing at this point.

Tossing that winter out there will set some tongues wagging.

[North Balti Zen]

Tossing that winter out there will set some tongues wagging.

The qualifier of a "less favorable Pacific" should slow some of the tongues.

[MN Transplant]

I was telling will the other night that as of now I like a modified 2002-03 analog with less of a favorable pacific (02-03 best pacific ever?). Something like +1, -1, -4 for DCA with 15". More if we get a 10-14"+ KU in late January or February (30 %?) East based -NAO in the means with a mean 50-50 trough/low. Formidable enough dateline forcing to not allow a nasty vortex to sit over or near AK for weeks or months.

This is of course all low confidence folksy broad brushing at this point.

Dangerous talking about negative departures for both Jan and Feb.

All years in the last 3 decades with negative Jan/Feb combos. Snowfall in Jan/Feb (total seasonal).

2010 - 39.5" (56.1")

2004 - 6.2" (12.4")

2003 - 33.2" (40.4")

1996 - 39.0" (46.0")

1994 - 6.6" (13.2")

1988 - 13.1" (25.0")

1987 - 31.1" (31.1")

1985 - 10.0" (10.3")

1982 - 20.6" (22.5")

[PhineasC]

Any idea what new factor/teleconnection/index will emerge in the fall that has never been discussed before but is suddenly incredibly important and looks horrible for EC winter?

[Huffwx]

I was telling will the other night that as of now I like a modified 2002-03 analog with less of a favorable pacific (02-03 best pacific ever?). Something like +1, -1, -4 for DCA with 15". More if we get a 10-14"+ KU in late January or February (30 %?) East based -NAO in the means with a mean 50-50 trough/low. Formidable enough dateline forcing to not allow a nasty vortex to sit over or near AK for weeks or months.

This is of course all low confidence folksy broad brushing at this point.

15 at DCA is like 30 at IAD and 25 at BWI.

The "pregame" match ups are about as close to favorable as we can get. If we get close to normal, I'd be happy.

[ORH_wxman]

15 at DCA is like 30 at IAD and 25 at BWI.

The "pregame" match ups are about as close to favorable as we can get. If we get close to normal, I'd be happy.

Zwyts is a bit more bullish on the El Nino than I am at this point...but I pretty much agree with his thinking if we can get a solid moderate Nino....I still think there is enough of a chance of a +1.0-1.1 type anomaly in the trimothlies which would probably not be as statistically favorable for DC for a snowy winter. The weaker the El Nino, the more we will probably see this La Nina hangover linger which could produce an unfavorable PAC.

Stronger El Ninos have been able to overcome the la Nina hangovers in -PDO regime such as '09-'10 and to a lesser extent '65-'66 (but that year started off with a horrific pattern but then got better in January and early Feb)....but we'll have to just wait and see where this one goes. Doesn't look like the pattern is favorable for much strengthening throughout this month.

[WxUSAF]

Any idea what new factor/teleconnection/index will emerge in the fall that has never been discussed before but is suddenly incredibly important and looks horrible for EC winter?

Long-term J-field sector alignments look very unfavorable

[MN Transplant]

I'm trying to draw a strong correlation between strength of ENSO events after ninos/ninas/neutral and our winter but I think too many factors.

Also. When the hell did 52-53 become a niño!

They changed the baselines. Only Nino to start as late as DJF. Looks like we also picked up 58/59.

[Feb]

I've been trying to find a way to articulate this best and I think I have found something interesting and low confidence but worth a look as more of a tendency and less as a rule

We have had 12 ninos that have flipped from Nina/neutral negative the previous winter.

THE WEAK ONES

The 4 weakest of the bunch (none had a NDJ or DJF anomaly of 1.2 or higher) averaged 10" of snow with all right around 10". They were mixed on warm versus cold.

51-52 was warm

68-69 tended normal/cold

76-77 was cold

06-07 was warm but had the frigid February

Snow makes sense since the 4 likely had the weakest southern streams and a more dominant northern stream

THE MODERATES

6 were moderate/low end strong- all had either or both the NDJ/DJF anomaly at or above 1.2 and below 2.0

57-58

63-64

65-66

86-87

02-03

09-10

5 were cold and 1 was normal but leaned cold(86-87) We know about snow. All were well well above with an average of 38.3". All had KU's. 12 full blown cases among the bunch. Epic winters. Every single one.

THE STRONG

72-73, 82-83 (each had either or both a NDJ/DJF anomaly of a over 2.1)

Both were warm with an average February. We know one was a complete dud and the other had 3 decent storms with one epic KU.

CONCLUSION:

Obviously lots of other factors at play and insufficient sample.

But I will strongly weight NIÑO in my winter outlook. If it looks to be on the weaker side, I will probably go average temps with at least one cold month and one warm month of course weighing other factors as well and 8-12 for DCA.

If it looks to be in the bullseye I will go 2/3 months cold and overall cold and snowy. Probably 25-30". Certainly at least 20-25"

If it looks to be strong I will really have to rely on other factors but would probably go warm in DEC/JAN and normal FEB and overall warm. Snow will be a crapshoot but would probably really rely on the AO/NAO prospects to make a call but hedging toward the median.

But ENSO will be biggest factor and much more than in a Nina or Neutral

What's your odds right now Matt regarding the nino? Reading the board right now it looks like a toss up between weak and moderate with strong being a long shot. Is that how you see it right now?

[North Balti Zen]

I've been trying to find a way to articulate this best and I think I have found something interesting and low confidence but worth a look as more of a tendency and less as a rule

We have had 12 ninos that have flipped from Nina/neutral negative the previous winter.

THE WEAK ONES

The 4 weakest of the bunch (none had a NDJ or DJF anomaly of 1.2 or higher) averaged 10" of snow with all right around 10". They were mixed on warm versus cold.

51-52 was warm

68-69 tended normal/cold

76-77 was cold

06-07 was warm but had the frigid February

Snow makes sense since the 4 likely had the weakest southern streams and a more dominant northern stream

THE MODERATES

6 were moderate/low end strong- all had either or both the NDJ/DJF anomaly at or above 1.2 and below 2.0

57-58

63-64

65-66

86-87

02-03

09-10

5 were cold and 1 was normal but leaned cold(86-87) We know about snow. All were well well above with an average of 38.3". All had KU's. 12 full blown cases among the bunch. Epic winters. Every single one.

THE STRONG

72-73, 82-83 (each had either or both a NDJ/DJF anomaly of a over 2.1)

Both were warm with an average February. We know one was a complete dud and the other had 3 decent storms with one epic KU.

CONCLUSION:

Obviously lots of other factors at play and insufficient sample.

But I will strongly weight NIÑO in my winter outlook. If it looks to be on the weaker side, I will probably go average temps with at least one cold month and one warm month of course weighing other factors as well and 8-12 for DCA.

If it looks to be in the bullseye I will go 2/3 months cold and overall cold and snowy. Probably 25-30". Certainly at least 20-25"

If it looks to be strong I will really have to rely on other factors but would probably go warm in DEC/JAN and normal FEB and overall warm. Snow will be a crapshoot but would probably really rely on the AO/NAO prospects to make a call but hedging toward the median.

But ENSO will be biggest factor and much more than in a Nina or Neutral

Awesome post and thanks for the work and sharing your thoughts, Matt.

[Bob Chill]

Based on the last 5 tri-monthlies, there's a fair case for saying that the Nino probably won't get any stronger than +1.2ish. I agree with zwyts about 1.6-1.8 being where we would like to see it but I think the odds are stacked against that.

Based on the current rate of warming and the last 5 tri monthlies, there are a couple of past Ninos that look pretty similar.

86-87 and 06-07 seem quite similar. Especially 06-07.

09-10 would be the best case of course and that isn't off the table. We just need region 3.4 to not stall right now but I have some concerns there.

I know the Nina pac hangover effect is in all of our minds but to be honest, I'm more interested/concerned about the state of the AO/NAO (i wish I saw Wes' presentation). We had a front row seat last season irt what happens when those teleconnections are stuck in a bad + pattern. I would have to assume that a repeat is highly unlikely. If anything, you would think the pattern would "snap back" a bit this winter.

[WEATHER53]

Based on the last 5 tri-monthlies, there's a fair case for saying that the Nino probably won't get any stronger than +1.2ish. I agree with zwyts about 1.6-1.8 being where we would like to see it but I think the odds are stacked against that.

Based on the current rate of warming and the last 5 tri monthlies, there are a couple of past Ninos that look pretty similar.

86-87 and 06-07 seem quite similar. Especially 06-07.

09-10 would be the best case of course and that isn't off the table. We just need region 3.4 to not stall right now but I have some concerns there.

I know the Nina pac hangover effect is in all of our minds but to be honest, I'm more interested/concerned about the state of the AO/NAO (i wish I saw Wes' presentation). We had a front row seat last season irt what happens when those teleconnections are stuck in a bad + pattern. I would have to assume that a repeat is highly unlikely. If anything, you would think the pattern would "snap back" a bit this winter.

I did not live here then but my uncle is a keen weather observer and he says 86-87 is the most underrated snow winter for DC and that 81-82 is the most underrated cold winter for DC.

[WVclimo]

Based on the current rate of warming and the last 5 tri monthlies, there are a couple of past Ninos that look pretty similar.

86-87 and 06-07 seem quite similar. Especially 06-07.

09-10 would be the best case of course and that isn't off the table. We just need region 3.4 to not stall right now but I have some concerns there.

I'd sign for either of those winters right now, and cede the slight chance of a '09-'10. The PDO looks a lot worse at this point than those years did, though. Until that eases, my tempered expectations are for a '72-'73 type Nino, which would be a horrific outcome after the heat we've endured since March 2010.

[ORH_wxman]

I really don't know. I havent been paying a ton of attention yet and not sure there is skill at this range. I know Will said he is not confident about a moderate event. Off the top of my head I think euro and NASA have a good track record and they are both pretty bullish. Ignore the statistical models. Following a 2 year Nina I would be very concerned with a weak niño in a -pdo cycle here in DC and if it looks to be in the 0.7-1.0 range I would probably be pretty bearish about winter. Probably something like a +1 to +2 type winter, 8-12". Have to see the other factors too. If I had my druthers I'd want to see a tri-monthly peak in the 1.6-1.8 range.

I still think moderate is more likely than weak...but for DCA purposes, lets call moderate 1.2 or higher...in that case, I think its a lot closer to a toss up. 1.1 usually gets classified as a moderate Nino, but we know that's not really the case from a sensible wx standpoint...esp for DC. There's kind of that distinct line around +1.2-+1.3.

Obviously the NAO/AO need to be hanging out at least around neutral, but assuming we could achieve that, I definitely agree with your thinking that DC will have a good winter if we can get past that threshold defined above.

[Ian]

I'm not that worried about the Atlantic....that will fall into place..I am much more worried about the Pacific...once the PAC cooperates the Atlantic in a moderate NIno will generally be favorable or at least not hostile....I know they are all interrelated but I think our biggest enemy will be if we punt 2/3 of winter with a nasty vortex somewhere over or near AK, ridge over Aleutians and Trough over the pac NW, and of course a lack of a southern stream....DEC May suck no matter what though...nothing we can do about that...hopefully we sneak something in, but it is pretty doubtful we will have much of a southern stream at that point so we will need some help

why's that?

[ORH_wxman]

I think that low end moderate coming out of a 2 year Nina smack in the middle of a persistent -PDO will be dicey.....DEC may kind of suck anyway..If we are going to have a 6-week winter no matter what, I at least want to have a good storm track with a robust moisture feed during the peak...I think we had a pretty good STJ in Feb 2007....but maybe the northern stream was still too strong?...the storm track kind of sucked

Pretty good bet...'09 and '02 are the exceptions rather than the rule. Otherwise you have to hope for a fluke like 1957 or 1982 in the midst of a garbage pattern. I was just posting to Scott in the NE forum how BOS seems to be a better jackpot spot when the Nino has its best month in February versus January...not sure if that is true in DC though. Jan '87 was much better in DC than BOS (but epic just west of BOS)

[Bob Chill]

I'm not that worried about the Atlantic....that will fall into place..I am much more worried about the Pacific...once the PAC cooperates the Atlantic in a moderate NIno will generally be favorable or at least not hostile....I know they are all interrelated but I think our biggest enemy will be if we punt 2/3 of winter with a nasty vortex somewhere over or near AK, ridge over Aleutians and Trough over the pac NW, and of course a lack of a southern stream....DEC May suck no matter what though...nothing we can do about that...hopefully we sneak something in, but it is pretty doubtful we will have much of a southern stream at that point so we will need some help

-

Great points about the PAC. It's can be a real kick in the teeth when something big and ugly sets up shop. As much as we want it to break down quickly it always ends up being a waiting game and then the risk of the pattern change not cooperating is there.

I have some good data irt Dec probably not being a good month but it isn't organized. Once I put it in "readable" format I'll post it.

TBH- I'm actually hoping for a crappy pac in mid nov - xmas. I wouldn't always say something so crazy but I totally agree that this type of enso pattern will favor a Jan-Feb window more than anything. It would be a kick in the teeth to have the pac, ao, and NAO cooperate for 4-6 weeks before the ss gets going.

It's always such a gamble down here. Subtle missing parts to a pattern can hose us with ease. I'm a bit optimistic for a climo type winter though. Mixed bag of events with a good one tossed in. I don't think going 20"+ in my suburbs is unreasonable at all.