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CFS Long Range (as in Winter)


mitchnick

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I almost don't want to bring this up but it is remarkable how close enso has been this year compared to 06. The 2 years have been running almost identical so far with tri monthlies. Pretty much no chance of getting into nino status like 06 though. Then throw in 06 being similar with the new snowcover index and a weak nino coming out of a weak nina.....

And then when November NH 500 anoms look like this next to each other...

Please, no rocks. You can throw tomatoes all day but no rocks. lol

2006 is a bad analog imo....Nino was much stronger at this point, the AO was raging + in DEC/Jan and we developed this monstrosity of a vortex in the EPO/WPO regions that wrecked the 1st half of winter...toss it....

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2006 is a bad analog imo....Nino was much stronger at this point, the AO was raging + in DEC/Jan and we developed this monstrosity of a vortex in the EPO/WPO regions that wrecked the 1st half of winter...toss it....

Going forward it is a bad analog it seems so far. It's just too similar in Oct-Nov to take a total pass on. I'm personally relieved that it seems all but a lock that the AO isn't going raging positive in Dec. At least not early on.

01-02 was a big flip of the neg AO in Dec but this year really looks nothing like it.

The sleet storm was pretty cool. Sure snow would have been better but that sleet turned into 3" of white cement that stuck around for what seemed like forever. There were a lot of sledding injuries from that storm. It made the local paper. lol

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Going forward it is a bad analog it seems so far. It's just too similar in Oct-Nov to take a total pass on. I'm personally relieved that it seems all but a lock that the AO isn't going raging positive in Dec. At least not early on.

01-02 was a big flip of the neg AO in Dec but this year really looks nothing like it.

The sleet storm was pretty cool. Sure snow would have been better but that sleet turned into 3" of white cement that stuck around for what seemed like forever. There were a lot of sledding injuries from that storm. It made the local paper. lol

The 2nd half of winter was solid...underrated

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The 2nd half of winter was solid...underrated

Agreed. 12/1-1/15 was pretty rough, but by early January the models began showing the abrupt pattern flip was coming and it actually verified pretty much right on time.

I got lucky with the VD storm, because it snowed all day and accumulated 3" before the flip to sleet. Great cold month. Then the 2 storms in March, including 6" here on 3/16 brought me right to my seasonal average. Have seen a lot of winters worse than '06-'07.

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