Ger Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Thanks Wes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Nino waning again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Nino waning again Not too surprising. Too bad, when the models were going for a moderate nino I started writing a Nino article for this winter. Needless to say it died and I've had to redo it. I probably still didn't change it enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 For PHL but hurricane schwartz winter forecast out: http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Long-Range-Winter-Forecast-Glenn-Hurricane-Schwartz-180199191.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Bob Ryan is bullish: http://www.wjla.com/blogs/weather/2012/11/bob-ryan-s-winter-outlook-more-extremes-ahead-17253.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 dc roundup.http://www.washingto...7b501_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 dc roundup. http://www.washingto...7b501_blog.html More darts in the dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 More darts in the dark. pretty much.. masco is all over the -NAO but we had a huge -NAO in 10-11 and that winter still mostly sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 dc roundup. http://www.washingto...7b501_blog.html Kammarer is from Herndon and I believe was in Philly prior to WRC. So he is probably good on area climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Kammarer is from Herndon and I believe was in Philly prior to WRC. So he is probably good on area climate. ahh. ok. he seems to always be in the snowy camp which seems like a mistake around here. my thoughts on tv guys are mixed. i'd wager an enthusiast like matt knows way more about our climo than most of them though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 It is pretty obvious Jason wishes I had gone cold and snowy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 It is pretty obvious Jason wishes I had gone cold and snowy... heh. everyone loves winter forecasts around here for some reason. we are a region that likes pain apparently. just wait till you win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 heh. everyone loves winter forecasts around here for some reason. we are a region that likes pain apparently. just wait till you win. If you go by odds he will always win in our area, smart move by Matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 pretty much.. masco is all over the -NAO but we had a huge -NAO in 10-11 and that winter still mostly sucked. Maybe for you, but we were rockin' in the southern Mid-Atl. Pretty much all December long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 It is pretty obvious Jason wishes I had gone cold and snowy... I doubt he cares as long as CWG has something out and it is well thought out. I think he just posts what he thinks people will be interested in and this gives him more than one winter forecast article for people to click on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Maybe for you, but we were rockin' in the southern Mid-Atl. Pretty much all December long. true. and if for some reason boxing day had performed here we'd remember the winter differently. one storm can be so critical here to define good v bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 The new CFS2 has us below normal for Jan with the precip map suggesting a southern storm track. Ji and DT must be salivating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Kammarer is from Herndon and I believe was in Philly prior to WRC. So he is probably good on area climate. He provided great Olympics coverage from London, so weather is definitely his priority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 true. and if for some reason boxing day had performed here we'd remember the winter differently. one storm can be so critical here to define good v bad. This is definitely true. If we had actually gotten what the GFS was teasing us with just before the Boxing Day storm, combined with Commutageddon at the end of January, I think most everyone here would have called 2010-11 a pretty good winter. I've always felt the same about 2006-07, which in many ways is looked at kind of negatively. Yeah, it was warm for the first half and we didn't get much snow for the season, but from about mid-end of January through March, it was quite cold. Had the Valentine's Day storm hammered us, that would be considered a far more "successful" winter as well (especially with the brutally cold February). For awhile, it sure looked good for the V-Day storm, too, until it decided to go into the Ohio valley and dump 3" sleet on us instead. I'd also argue similarly about 2004-05, some very good potential in a cold winter, but I seem to recall we underperformed on a couple or three storms. Yup, one really good storm here can pretty much give us our seasonal average, and make the difference between perceived "good" and "bad." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 He provided great Olympics coverage from London, so weather is definitely his priority. You must miss Bill Kamal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 FYI...nino is dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 FYI...nino is dead Not good. What do you think about 1953-54 as an analog. I'm with you on your thoughts for December in the Mid Atlantic...snooze... is it possible we see most of our winter in January instead of February or do you think there is enough of an El Niño left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Not good. What do you think about 1953-54 as an analog. I'm with you on your thoughts for December in the Mid Atlantic...snooze... is it possible we see most of our winter in January instead of February or do you think there is enough of an El Niño left? I pretty much ignored it because it was the 3rd year of a warm enso period....But the AO/NAO doesn't really look like this winter.......Plus I don't think February will torch....so I don't like it..Of course I could be way wrong.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27, 2012 Author Share Posted November 27, 2012 CFS for the past few weeks has been showing a fairly wet JAN and FEB here's today's monthly forecast http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usPrece3Mon.html I'll take my chances if it can be that wet aside from 97/98, I can't recall many above normal precip winters that were much below normal snowfall, but I haven't looked closely this, of course, assumes the CFS forecast will come close to verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 CFS for the past few weeks has been showing a fairly wet JAN and FEB here's today's monthly forecast http://www.cpc.ncep....sPrece3Mon.html I'll take my chances if it can be that wet aside from 97/98, I can't recall many above normal precip winters that were much below normal snowfall, but I haven't looked closely this, of course, assumes the CFS forecast will come close to verifying Our two least snowy winters on record had below normal snowfall. 1973-1974 and 97-98. The CFS2 temp and precip combo for Jan does look good for us if it is right (a big if). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27, 2012 Author Share Posted November 27, 2012 Our two least snowy winters on record had below normal snowfall. 1973-1974 and 97-98. The CFS2 temp and precip combo for Jan does look good for us if it is right (a big if). I had erased the winter of 72/73 completely out of my mind lol but it does make sense that 72/73 was wet in light of the strong NINO (ala 97/98) since this year is not a strong NINO, IF the CFS2 precip forecast is correct odds would seem to favor we get, at least, average snowfall and as you point out, IF the temp forecast is also close to being right, we'll go AN snowfall, but I'm not thinking that's likely right now.....just hoping like an 8 year old it is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I pretty much ignored it because it was the 3rd year of a warm enso period....But the AO/NAO doesn't really look like this winter.......Plus I don't think February will torch....so I don't like it..Of course I could be way wrong.... Thanks. Yeah it's one of those analogs that comes up every once in a while in comparisons for the last 1.5 years. It certainly has been relative in recent weeks but it may lose its credibility as winter progresses. I think most of the December threats are New England's (12/6-9 and approaching 12/20) but mid-December does look improved with the retrograding Pacific. January is starting to look pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I almost don't want to bring this up but it is remarkable how close enso has been this year compared to 06. The 2 years have been running almost identical so far with tri monthlies. Pretty much no chance of getting into nino status like 06 though. Then throw in 06 being similar with the new snowcover index and a weak nino coming out of a weak nina..... And then when November NH 500 anoms look like this next to each other... Please, no rocks. You can throw tomatoes all day but no rocks. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 But don't worry, the strat will save us... I know there are definable differences between the 2 years but still... I've had my eye on 06 for a while but I simply don't want to believe it can happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27, 2012 Author Share Posted November 27, 2012 Bob, what's wrong with 06/07? heck, we had 5X the snowfall that winter vs. last year otoh, 11/06 ended up +3.1 on temp departures at BWI and this year (thru 11/26) BWI is -3.4 sooooo maybe I can fit a small rock inside one of my tomatoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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