Deck Pic Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I'm starting to like 1990 as an analog It wasn't awful....8-12" for most of DC metro and 14-18" for further burbs....there were a couple 3-5" events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 It wasn't awful....8-12" for most of DC metro and 14-18" for further burbs....there were a couple 3-5" events Gave us a T-day (1989) snowstorm. Assuming you mean 1990 analog is 1989-1990 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Gave us a T-day (1989) snowstorm. Assuming you mean 1990 analog is 1989-1990 winter. 90-91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Gave us a T-day (1989) snowstorm. Assuming you mean 1990 analog is 1989-1990 winter. IIRC, 1989-1990 saw one heck of a flip right about New Years. It went warm and never looked back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Old school LWX summary of February 91 and winter 90-91: www.nws.noaa.gov/os/presto/presto1991/91febtable.pdf Interestingly enough, even though that was the warmest winter on record (at that time), there was still 8-11" of snow at the 3 big airports. Maybe zwyts is just quasi-trolling, but I don't think there's reason to be that pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Old school LWX summary of February 91 and winter 90-91: www.nws.noaa.gov/os/presto/presto1991/91febtable.pdf Interestingly enough, even though that was the warmest winter on record (at that time), there was still 8-11" of snow at the 3 big airports. Maybe zwyts is just quasi-trolling, but I don't think there's reason to be that pessimistic. Don't forget he lives in Downtown DC that is like living in South Florida compared to us when it comes to snowfall. We average almost double what he does and it is only like 65 miles from my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Don't forget he lives in Downtown DC that is like living in South Florida compared to us when it comes to snowfall. We average almost double what he does and it is only like 65 miles from my house. Considering this, your annual average snowfall would be around 30", Looks like your in the Georgia zone. Many places in upstate New York average 150+" of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 It wasn't awful....8-12" for most of DC metro and 14-18" for further burbs....there were a couple 3-5" events That is unacceptable after winter 2009-2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Considering this, your annual average snowfall would be around 30", Looks like your in the Georgia zone. Many places in upstate New York average 150+" of snowfall. I actually average more like 26" so we are probably talking Tallahassee for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 DT going with a normal Dec temps/precip jan below temps above precip feb normal temps above precip Says this fall is setting up nothing like last fall http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/10/early-ideas-on-winter-2012-13/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Nice discussion by DT. I'm glad he put in that article about Accuwx's winter forecast from last year. I can't believe Marguisity and Accuwx actually blamed Japanese tsunami debris for their bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 Nice discussion by DT. I'm glad he put in that article about Accuwx's winter forecast from last year. I can't believe Marguisity and Accuwx actually blamed Japanese tsunami debris for their bust I can! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 From the New England forum. Thought y'all might be interested. Absolute snow cover explosion over all of Siberia/Eurasia to end the month. In fact, we may have done even better than 2009 and 2002. 1976 is #1 all time for the largest increase in October snowcover in Siberia/Eurasia. Don't think we catch them...but regardless, we can put a big check mark in the snow cover column for October. Hopefully that helps us out this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 It'll be a really interesting test case to see if the October snowcover thing pans out this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 The coorelation shown is intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 It'll be a really interesting test case to see if the October snowcover thing pans out this year. if it doesn't work this year, it's never going to it would seem http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 if it doesn't work this year, it's never going to it would seem http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/ Yea, no kidding. Oct snowcover did exactly what we wanted it to do. Ever since the heat broke this summer we seem to have broken the longer term warm pattern. Nothing on guidance suggests we torch anytime soon either. This is worth mentioning at least. The Nino may be all but caput at this point but I really don't think that is a kiss of death at all. Unless something ugly happens like a resurgence of the SE ridge or the ec winterkilling ak vortex, I don't see any reason to be pessimistic at all. I don't even think a Dec torch is nearly as likely as many of us thought. If someone made a call right now with dead even temps each month for DJF they could be spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 if it doesn't work this year, it's never going to it would seem http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/ It looks like the blocking piece is falling into place (knock on wood), but will we get the moisture to go with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 It looks like the blocking piece is falling into place (knock on wood), but will we get the moisture to go with it? Since we average 12" of total precip from Dec-early Mar I just don't think it's too much to ask that 2" falls as snow. It was too much to ask last year though.. I don't think I had much more than .2" of liquid fall as snow in my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 The models have been hinting at an election day storm far off the east coast. Might merit our attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 The models have been hinting at an election day storm far off the east coast. Might merit our attention. 12z Euro says nyet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 12z Euro says nyet What did the Russian model show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Ellinwood just went cold for Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Ellinwood just went cold for Winter I guess the concept now is that if the Nino is very weak or neutral it will not play a major role and instead the negative NAO will rule the roost. It was nice to see some mega blocking show up on the models with Sandy. The precip maps looked a lot like 2009-2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 I guess the concept now is that if the Nino is very weak or neutral it will not play a major role and instead the negative NAO will rule the roost. It was nice to see some mega blocking show up on the models with Sandy. The precip maps looked a lot like 2009-2010. Pretty much... I feel there will still be a weak Nino background signal overall, but the main drivers for this winter IMO will be the -NAO/-AO, and if it can stick around the -WPO, which has been quite negative through this month and is forecast to remain negative through at least the first half of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Pretty much agree. It is significant seeing the AO/NAO running negative in October. More important in Nov-Dec of course but the bias definitely seems to be negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 HM mentioned things may be lining up for cold and snowy...mentioned it in the New England forum so he may only be talking for up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 boy, this sure looks good if we can keep it up at least half the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 another reason why the CFS2 forecast of us being at or below normal temps this winter may be more right than wrong....the cold is on our side of the globe http://origin.cpc.nc...euT2me3Mon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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