CFS Long Range (as in Winter)

[Ender]

New June Euro output didn't change too much...still going like +1.1-1.2 peak it looks like, but there are no more negative-neutrals in the plumes.

I've been looking forward to a moderate Nino for '12-'13 since we exited '09-'10. I've been encouraged to see the dynamical models lead in that direction since early this past spring. My "forecast" (guess) is that NDJ ends up in the +.9 to +1.1 range. I'm likewise not too worried about the NAO state this winter. I think a Nino following a Nina is going to lead to a pretty blocky mess. We shall see...

I've no clue on the AO, and no idea where to begin. We've enough cases of -NAO, if not even strong -NAO, that ended up mild outside of extreme northern New England, if not just northern Maine, to give me pause.

[Bob Chill]

Oh, I agree with what you're saying, and was not trying to imply that this next winter will be "better crap" than last year. Was just stating the obvious that it wouldn't take much to be any better. As you know in these parts, one good storm can essentially make the entire winter. But you probably knew that's what I meant. I think last year was as much bad luck as it was a crappy pattern. I'd like to see a "recovery winter" (so to speak), much like 2002-03 was after 2001-02.

Anyhow, I'm glad to see "early indications" that are in our favor. I'm sure everyone would like to kick this prolonged Nina to the curb!

And like I said, first thing that would be nice is that we don't have the awful summer heat like we've had the past two summers, especially the past couple of Julys. Softball double-headers in 102 degree heat just ain't that fun!

I think my post came off wrong. I posting at you directly. I was posting at "us". The fellow predictable weenies of which I am one.

As the weeks go by there is more and more evidence in our favor that points toward "potential". I've been going over some data and pulling some analogs that I like and are "reasonable", Alot of them are colder than normal (especially in Jan-Mar). I don't worry too much about the analogs that didn't produce much snow. I always think alot of times that's more of a function of crappy timing in the short range vs. a favorable larger scale pattern. Our nemesis more often than not is temps so that is always the single most important ingredient. I'm pretty sick of thread the needle. The last 2 winters have sucked in that department.

So, the million dollar question is do we get a mod Nino AND an active stj AND at the very least an occaisional -nao/ao combo (which was strangely nonexistent from start to finish last year)?

[Bob Chill]

I've been looking forward to a moderate Nino for '12-'13 since we exited '09-'10. I've been encouraged to see the dynamical models lead in that direction since early this past spring. My "forecast" (guess) is that NDJ ends up in the +.9 to +1.1 range. I'm likewise not too worried about the NAO state this winter. I think a Nino following a Nina is going to lead to a pretty blocky mess. We shall see...

I've no clue on the AO, and no idea where to begin. We've enough cases of -NAO, if not even strong -NAO, that ended up mild outside of extreme northern New England, if not just northern Maine, to give me pause.

There seems to be a correlation with mod Ninos following Nina's and -ao's. Especially during Jan-Feb. It may exist with Nino's in general but I haven't looked that close yet. I'll eventually post my data in this thread once I finish going through it and making sure there aren't errors.

I know what you mean about a -nao with only NE getting the cold but I think that wouldn't be favored during a Nino (assuming an active stj)? IIRC- Nino's generally have a ridge w and trough east with the polar jet when the stj is active.

[mitchnick]

There seems to be a correlation with mod Ninos following Nina's and -ao's. Especially during Jan-Feb. It may exist with Nino's in general but I haven't looked that close yet. I'll eventually post my data in this thread once I finish going through it and making sure there aren't errors.

I know what you mean about a -nao with only NE getting the cold but I think that wouldn't be favored during a Nino (assuming an active stj)? IIRC- Nino's generally have a ridge w and trough east with the polar jet when the stj is active.

what I find even more promising with the CFS and CFS2 ENSO forecasts are that both seems to have the max NINO temps just east of the dateline (or thereabouts,) which should lead to the best forcing...exactly where I recall Wes saying in 09/10 the M.A. needs it (and had it that winter)

[CoastalWx]

The euro seasonals look decent for SON (that's as far as they go). It has a decent ridge anomaly near the southern coast of AK. It does show a mild Fall however, but regardless..at least it has some decent pieces coming together FWIW.

[mappy]

All I ask is for any snowstorms to take place after the middle of December, like around Christmas is perfect. Ill pass on anything before that.

[mitchnick]

The euro seasonals look decent for SON (that's as far as they go). It has a decent ridge anomaly near the southern coast of AK. It does show a mild Fall however, but regardless..at least it has some decent pieces coming together FWIW.

thanks for the info

I'm seeing some typical NINO characteristics showing up on the CFS and CFS2 with a dry OV and AN precip along the SE coast

temp forecasts at this point are a shot in the dark

all I know is I'll take a NINO over a NINA any year; snowy NINA's do nothing but skew the realities of a typical NINA winter in the MA

[Bob Chill]

thanks for the info

I'm seeing some typical NINO characteristics showing up on the CFS and CFS2 with a dry OV and AN precip along the SE coast

temp forecasts at this point are a shot in the dark

all I know is I'll take a NINO over a NINA any year; snowy NINA's do nothing but skew the realities of a typical NINA winter in the MA

Classic Nino stj on the way?

We still sweat it out around here as the polar jet scares us. Miller A's are great and all until they track to our west. lol.

At the very least, we can be a bit optimistic leading into the winter. The best part about a typical Nino jet setup is that we don't have to thread the damn needle every time AND models do much better @ days 3-7. Also having precip exist well in advance always increases entertainment value from days 3-4 on in.

The 2 most recent examples of multi-year cold followed by warm enso are 02-03 and 09-10. Not saying I think a blockbuster is on the way but recent history shows that we can be a little stoked early on and not be called hopeless weenies.

[mitchnick]

Classic Nino stj on the way?

We still sweat it out around here as the polar jet scares us. Miller A's are great and all until they track to our west. lol.

At the very least, we can be a bit optimistic leading into the winter. The best part about a typical Nino jet setup is that we don't have to thread the damn needle every time AND models do much better @ days 3-7. Also having precip exist well in advance always increases entertainment value from days 3-4 on in.

The 2 most recent examples of multi-year cold followed by warm enso are 02-03 and 09-10. Not saying I think a blockbuster is on the way but recent history shows that we can be a little stoked early on and not be called hopeless weenies.

Bob, these graphs are off LWX; top one shows NINA snowfall at BWI and bottom one NINO

I'll rest my case when it comes choosing NINO over NINA regardless of other conditions

[usedtobe]

I'll be talking about El NIno and how it impacts snowfall along the east coast using dca, nyc and BOS as base points. Nino years can be real good but can also be stinkers like 1997-1998. Only about half the El Ninos seasons have above normal snowfall at DCA but the average is for El Nino years is well above average because the good years usually are well above average and the bad can only go to zero. A 50 Percent chance of an above normal winter is higher than in most years as only 1 in 3 or 4 are above normal, that's why the median is always lower than the mean or average.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

I think my post came off wrong. I posting at you directly. I was posting at "us". The fellow predictable weenies of which I am one.

As the weeks go by there is more and more evidence in our favor that points toward "potential". I've been going over some data and pulling some analogs that I like and are "reasonable", Alot of them are colder than normal (especially in Jan-Mar). I don't worry too much about the analogs that didn't produce much snow. I always think alot of times that's more of a function of crappy timing in the short range vs. a favorable larger scale pattern. Our nemesis more often than not is temps so that is always the single most important ingredient. I'm pretty sick of thread the needle. The last 2 winters have sucked in that department.

So, the million dollar question is do we get a mod Nino AND an active stj AND at the very least an occaisional -nao/ao combo (which was strangely nonexistent from start to finish last year)?

Gotcha...figured you were talking to "us", and the weenie in all of us. And I'm admittedly as big winter weather weenie as they come, always have been!! But also a realist and understand the meteorology/climatology of what you need for a good snow event. At this point, it's just good to hear the indications look positive (seem to recall last year at this time, there were already mumblings of things not looking very good for last winter).

Last winter's almost non-existent -nao/ao was pretty remarkable, as was the complete lack of east coast storms anywhere (of either the rain or snow variety). I believe the only east coast systems of note were the early season one in October that hit the interior portions of New England pretty hard, and one in April that gave us a good bit of much needed rain.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

I'll be talking about El NIno and how it impacts snowfall along the east coast using dca, nyc and BOS as base points. Nino years can be real good but can also be stinkers like 1997-1998. Only about half the El Ninos seasons have above normal snowfall at DCA but the average is for El Nino years is well above average because the good years usually are well above average and the bad can only go to zero. A 50 Percent chance of an above normal winter is higher than in most years as only 1 in 3 or 4 are above normal, that's why the median is always lower than the mean or average.

Looking forward to your discussion, Wes! And you're absolutely right concerning the basic stats on snowfall around here in El Nino winters (or other ENSO states, for that matter). Basically, when we hit it good, we really hammer it (a'la 2002-03, 2009-10), but if it's a dud, it's really a dud (1997-98)...and so averages to above normal snow overall for El Nino years. As you say, the worst you can get is of course 0", so there's an absolute minimum on the scale. Thank goodness!

One thing that took me awhile to get used to around here...having grown up in northeast Ohio...is that the mean snowfall is almost meaningless in the DC area. It really is feast or famine most winters with a huge standard deviation. Sure, the average is 15" or 18" or whatever (depending on where you live), but you'll either get 30" or 5" it seems! In northeast OH, the standard deviation is much smaller. Even a "bad" winter isn't totally awful (unless it's really unusual); likewise, an above normal winer isn't necessarily a record-breaking big hit (though I've seen those). So the average there is ~60" (at KCLE), and you can pretty well figure on 50-70" most every year fairly reliably. Part of that, of course, is due to the fact that the mean is significantly higher there than here, not to mention lake effect snow and winters are just normally colder there than around here. But the individual synoptic scale "big storms" that we get here are substantially greater than the ones in Ohio; a 12"+ storm there isn't all that common, but you'll get lots of 4-8", or 6-10", as well as the "nickel and dime" amounts that add up. Put another way, KCLE's greatest 24-h snow is on the order of 17". Growing up there I remember my share of big events in terms of cold, wind, and snow (including the infamous January 1978 blizzard!), but never got more than about 15" in any single event (excluding perhaps lake effect snows). Here in the DC area...in 2009-10 I experienced 20" in December and 23.5" in the February storm...not to mention about 20" from the PD-II storm in 2003.

Well, apologies for that long and meandering reply, but hope you didn't mind!

[Bob Chill]

It's hard not to like this. I'll post analog Nino trimonthly data later on but the ideal ENSO scenario is region 3.4 trimonthlies peaking in the 1.0 - 1.50 range sometime in the djf or jfm range. Anything over 1.5 starts to get scary but I don't think that is likely at all or even being hinted at in the forecasts.

The weenie in me is liking what appears to be a long duration +ao/nao cycle being broken and the endless + temp anoms backing off right now. Have no idea if this tendency is more of a longer term trend but it could be the case. We'll know in the next month or 2.

Edit: I just noticed that the last 4 enso trimonthlies are identical to 2006. Nothing more than a coincidence but it caught my eye. Even though 06-07 was a weak nino Dec & Jan were dominated by a +NAO/AO combo so the winter was a stinker except for the Feb storm that melted away in 15 minutes.

[mitchnick]

fwiw, the late Jack from Storm Vista used to often mention a study showing colder than normal temps (May-July period preceding winter I think) off New Newfoundland suggested a colder than normal winter in the east

we had the cold pool off NF in 09', but it was further east than the area Jack spoke off (I think his buddy, Harry, argued further east was OK too-I can't recall the exact details of the thread)

anyway, current maps do show colder than normal temps off NF, probably a bit east of what Jack looked for but in the same area as 09'

this isn't intended as a guarantee for a great winter, just one of those little pieces to consider

http://weather.unisy...anddiv=hide_bar

http://www.osdpd.noa...t.6.18.2012.gif

here's the SSTA map from Unisys from 6/19/09 to compare to the link above

http://weather.unisy...anom-090621.gif

[usedtobe]

Wes...

I'm trying to learn more about the global teleconnections, so pardon the n00b question.

For DC/BWI/PHI snows, the AO has to be in a positive state, correct? To that effect, the same area needs a -NAO, +PDO, slightly positive ENSO, and -PNA.

The AO like the NAO needs to be negative. The NAO more or less just measures the eastern extension of the AO so if the AO is negative the NOA usually but not always is negative. You want high eights across the polar regions.

[mitchnick]

I used to think the PNA matters...now I don't care...I just want blocking and hope everything else falls into place

maybe it's me, but it only seems to matter when we "just miss" snow

[Eskimo Joe]

The AO like the NAO needs to be negative. The NAO more or less just measures the eastern extension of the AO so if the AO is negative the NOA usually but not always is negative. You want high eights across the polar regions.

Thanks for the info.

[Met1985]

Great discussion in the thread about the upcoming winter and what might come.

[Feb]

Great discussion in the thread about the upcoming winter and what might come.

Agreed. Nice to read about what may come on this hot as hell day.

[HM]

It is still early yet, but particular attention should be paid to the base of ENSO as it develops late in the summer into autumn. Right now, you cannot say either way which base the upcoming ENSO will be, even with the "east-based" look it has now. Most of the time, this is the way a developing El Nino looks early in the summer (not always).

The stratosphere is MUCH more meaningful in El Nino than La Nina (e.g 2007-08 and 2009-10 both had similar players in the stratosphere). Going to be interesting to see which way the waves in zonal wind and solar activity behave.

[Bob Chill]

maybe it's me, but it only seems to matter when we "just miss" snow

It sure does with split pj flow setups. God I hate those. Miller A's are different. Even with a neutral or even -pna, a -nao will put up the wall to keep it from cutting. The +pna is pretty important with the big ones through. But not required by any stretch when you have a -nao and energy tracking along the gulf coast.

I need a favor from a stat keeper. I'm looking for the start and end date and snowfall amount of every 6+" storm in DC for the following years:

51-55

57-58

65-66

76-77

86-87

02-03

06-07

09-10

I have an idea I want to research and if there is a correlation then it's probably going to be a really good dataset for future reference.

[griteater]

I need a favor from a stat keeper. I'm looking for the start and end date and snowfall amount of every 6+" storm in DC for the following years:

51-55

57-58

65-66

76-77

86-87

02-03

06-07

09-10

I have an idea I want to research and if there is a correlation then it's probably going to be a really good dataset for future reference.

Should be able to find the data you need here - http://climate.usurf.usu.edu/products/data.php

[Bob Chill]

I've started crunching some data. I shortened my list of analog years to include only Ninos that followed Ninas and/or Ninos that followed multi-year Ninas / neg neutral enso (86-87, 02-03, & 09-10).

Decent set of analogs for the upcoming winter but my purpose is to analyze the major indices for the 5 days leading up to 6+" storms and not try to make guesses about this upcoming winter. I included 2 sub 6" storms to see if anything noticeable popped up and it did. It appears negative pna's are bad for big storms but the dataset is way to small still to jump to any conclusions.

I haven't finished with 02-03, 06-07, and 09-10 yet so this attached data only covers 10 of the 20 storms. I'm looking forward to 02-03, and 09-10. If there is a classic combination of the AO/NAO/PNA during the 5 day lead then those years should illustrate it pretty well.

I plan on extending this data to all storms that exceed 6" and not just Nino years. Had to start somewhere though. It's going to keep me busy for a while.

Once I'm done it should be a great set of data. I have a feeling some solid correlations are going to show up with the indices during the 5 day lead. It will be fun to apply the findings when tracking storms in the mid-range this upcoming winter.

[mitchnick]

June Euro seasonal forecast is now out

Here's ENSO for Oct-Dec:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/group_public/seasonal_charts_public_sst!2m%20temperature!4%20months!Tropics!201206!ensemble%20mean/

Here's the best you can do for temps, the S. American map (if you go back to the prior months, temps in the east are cooling from the summer):

http://www.ecmwf.int...ensemble mean!/

Precip (typical NINO w/AN precip in SE, though not by much on this forecast map):

http://www.ecmwf.int...!ensemble mean/

Looks like a west based, low end mod NINO; I'll take that at this point

[usedtobe]

I've started crunching some data. I shortened my list of analog years to include only Ninos that followed Ninas and/or Ninos that followed multi-year Ninas / neg neutral enso (86-87, 02-03, & 09-10).

Decent set of analogs for the upcoming winter but my purpose is to analyze the major indices for the 5 days leading up to 6+" storms and not try to make guesses about this upcoming winter. I included 2 sub 6" storms to see if anything noticeable popped up and it did. It appears negative pna's are bad for big storms but the dataset is way to small still to jump to any conclusions.

I haven't finished with 02-03, 06-07, and 09-10 yet so this attached data only covers 10 of the 20 storms. I'm looking forward to 02-03, and 09-10. If there is a classic combination of the AO/NAO/PNA during the 5 day lead then those years should illustrate it pretty well.

I plan on extending this data to all storms that exceed 6" and not just Nino years. Had to start somewhere though. It's going to keep me busy for a while.

Once I'm done it should be a great set of data. I have a feeling some solid correlations are going to show up with the indices during the 5 day lead. It will be fun to apply the findings when tracking storms in the mid-range this upcoming winter.

Bob, I did this graph/ these graphs of 4 inch or greater events for DCA.

I also did a ao/enso graph for snows 4 inch events that showed pretty much what D sutherland showed with the graph below which looks at KU storms

[Bob Chill]

Thanks for posting those again Wes! I saved them this time.

I'm very interested in the 5 day lead for storms and identifying correlations w/ the major indices. Basically, building a dataset that will help as a personal forecasting tool when the models bounce all over during days 2-5. It's going to take some work though. Do you think I may be wasting my time or is this something worthwhile?

One of the caveats is storm type. Millers, clippers, and overrunners work alot differently and having a dataset that includes all storm types lumped together won't be as accurate. Maybe once I'm done someone can go through it and stratify the data based on storm type.

[ravensrule]

Rob Guarino's latest thoughts on this upcoming winter:

http://www.liveweath...1122&Itemid=179

Winter cannot come soon enough .

[Bob Chill]

The one caveat to making any type of projection for this winter is the state of the NAO. Any type of anomalous +NAO will not = snowy along the EC. OH valley would be stoked though.

[HM]

Rob Guarino's latest thoughts on this upcoming winter:

http://www.liveweath...1122&Itemid=179

Winter cannot come soon enough .

Rob Writes:

"

Lets take a higher look up into the Stratosphere and see what's going on right now.

We are looking at 1979-2008 numbers and see that it will stay warm in the USA for a few more months, probably into September as far as above normal temps in the U.S. Most of this will be in the Southwest and part of the Midwest. This is the lower 1mb of the atmosphere or up to a few thousand feet..That would be from the ground up to the highest building in the U.S. right now in NYC the new Freedom Tower.

If the Stratosphere dips below average going into the Winter Months and stays in that position we could see a repeat of last winter. The Stratosphere couldn't stay warm enough to provoke a typical winter last winter heat was rising but cooled things out aloft.

Abnormal cooling is occurring at the 70mb level too and this where it becomes SIGNIFICANT enough to get winter weather (snow & cold) into action come December to March 2012-2013. What this all means is you can't have it warm at the surface (like last winter) and warm aloft...you need that mix going on to create storms."

What a bunch of nonsense. This is stunningly poor science.

[griteater]

What a bunch of nonsense. This is stunningly poor science.

If he's an award winning met, I'm Einstein