CFS Long Range (as in Winter)

[ORH_wxman]

I think 76-77 benefitted from the PDO decadal shift, but that is my theory and it is probably nonsense....I think anyone in DC/MD/VA would kill for 04-05....I got 17" in a 6 week winter.....despite the miller B quasi-bust which still gave me 3-4" of +SN, the 1/19 clipper was great, the 1/29-30 storm was wet but nice, the end of FEB storms were great even if underperformers...march 8th was super cool....if we knew what we know now, we'd sacrifice limbs to get that winter again...76-77 was fine because of all the snowcover even though most fell in a short period...68-69 was fine too...just not at DCA....I'm sure I cracked 14-15" that winter.any of those would be fine

Yeah those winters were "wintry" and still had plenty to enjoy and follow...they just might have been a bit frustrating given the much heavier snowfall relative to average off to the northeast. But by themselves they weren't terrible winters.

'09-'10 was "fine" here too with almost exactly average snowfall, but it was frustrating watching everyone else get hammered much worse. That winter could probably be played again 100 times and we wouldn't see that sort of screwjob again....and probably to a lesser extent 2004-2005 in DCA/BWI...that pattern would probably produce more snow there more often than not if you rolled the dice again.

I don't think your theory on '76-'77 is that bad. Coming off 30 years of -PDO and a 3 year potent Nina event with tons of cold building and building up north and then having it all unleashed on the CONUS over the next 3 winters when it forced all of it out of the Arctic Pacific...and also coming off the weakest solar max in the late 1960s/early 1970s since the 1920s.

[ORH_wxman]

weak ninos are rare....I'm sure this nino will be formidable....

New June Euro output didn't change too much...still going like +1.1-1.2 peak it looks like, but there are no more negative-neutrals in the plumes.

The Euro SIPS isn't out yet for June, which I believe has the most skill...but itsbeen fairly similar to the Euro. I'd give a higher probability to a solid moderate than I did a month ago.

[Deck Pic]

Yeah those winters were "wintry" and still had plenty to enjoy and follow...they just might have been a bit frustrating given the much heavier snowfall relative to average off to the northeast, and Jerry spending the entire winter telling us how great a winter we were having

FYP

[ORH_wxman]

FYP

Lol, at least you got to throw it back in '09-'10....though I guess he was telling how great 2010-2011 was the next year.

[usedtobe]

Its definitely a risk...though the weak Nino of '76-'77 was right after a 3 year Nina with '75-'76 being a strong Nina. I'm convinced its almost solely about the NAO in El Nino...if its positive, we're probably cooked, if its negative or neutral, we will probably have a lot of storms to track and a good supply of cold air.

But the NAO isn't completely independent of the PAC unfortunately. It does have some covariance with the PNA...esp in El Nino. So figuring out the N PAC is still important.

That said, I would perfectly comfortable with a 3.4 trimonthly peak in the 1.5-1.7 range. It would probably be a good winter for most of the east coast. I think the ceiling is higher for New England if the Nino stays kind of weak, but there is no reason it can't be a great winter anyway in the mentioned scenario ala '57-'58, '65-'66, or '02-'03 (or even '86-'87, though that winter really screwed NYC). Obviously DCA/BWI do much better in those more potent Ninos...winters like '04-'05, '76-'77, and '68-'69 sucked there for snow even though they were cold overall.

I think it's the AO and NAO and that pretty much applies to neutral years as well as ninos from nyc southward. If you look composite the 10 snowiest winters versus the 10 non snowiest, the difference in the AO is monstrous. 1972-1973 was a nino with a positive AO. It was a monster nino with a strongly positive Ao. The other monster nino was 1997-1998 which probably had a weakly negative AO. The latter had lots of good storm tracks but were never quite cold enough for snow.

Note how different the patterns were for two monster el ninos.

I don't think the strength of the nino alone is enough to know how the winter will break in terms of snow.

[Eskimo Joe]

I think it's the AO and NAO and that pretty much applies to neutral years as well as ninos from nyc southward. If you look composite the 10 snowiest winters versus the 10 non snowiest, the difference in the AO is monstrous. 1972-1973 was a nino with a positive AO. It was a monster nino with a strongly positive Ao. The other monster nino was 1997-1998 which probably had a weakly negative AO. The latter had lots of good storm tracks but were never quite cold enough for snow.

Note how different the patterns were for two monster el ninos.

I don't think the strength of the nino alone is enough to know how the winter will break in terms of snow.

Wes...

I'm trying to learn more about the global teleconnections, so pardon the n00b question.

For DC/BWI/PHI snows, the AO has to be in a positive state, correct? To that effect, the same area needs a -NAO, +PDO, slightly positive ENSO, and -PNA.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Won't take much to be better right? We'll be ALL over that this fall/winter...."yea, even though the pattern sucks it's still better than last year.......3" of slop followed by rain seems like a blizzard compared to last year....the 240 hour gfs is showing a storm that would be 10x my seasonal total last year". Jokes aside, early indications are pointing a winter that won't suck as bad as last year..,...unless we end up with a neutral ENSO winter.......that would be almost the kiss of death.....

Both the AO & NAO are -2 right now. It's been a long, long time since that's happened. Doesn't mean crap as far as winter is concerned but it sure is making for some nice sleep weather and is going to make it tough for June to be a torch.

Oh, I agree with what you're saying, and was not trying to imply that this next winter will be "better crap" than last year. Was just stating the obvious that it wouldn't take much to be any better. As you know in these parts, one good storm can essentially make the entire winter. But you probably knew that's what I meant. I think last year was as much bad luck as it was a crappy pattern. I'd like to see a "recovery winter" (so to speak), much like 2002-03 was after 2001-02.

Anyhow, I'm glad to see "early indications" that are in our favor. I'm sure everyone would like to kick this prolonged Nina to the curb!

And like I said, first thing that would be nice is that we don't have the awful summer heat like we've had the past two summers, especially the past couple of Julys. Softball double-headers in 102 degree heat just ain't that fun!

[Ender]

New June Euro output didn't change too much...still going like +1.1-1.2 peak it looks like, but there are no more negative-neutrals in the plumes.

I've been looking forward to a moderate Nino for '12-'13 since we exited '09-'10. I've been encouraged to see the dynamical models lead in that direction since early this past spring. My "forecast" (guess) is that NDJ ends up in the +.9 to +1.1 range. I'm likewise not too worried about the NAO state this winter. I think a Nino following a Nina is going to lead to a pretty blocky mess. We shall see...

I've no clue on the AO, and no idea where to begin. We've enough cases of -NAO, if not even strong -NAO, that ended up mild outside of extreme northern New England, if not just northern Maine, to give me pause.

[Bob Chill]

Oh, I agree with what you're saying, and was not trying to imply that this next winter will be "better crap" than last year. Was just stating the obvious that it wouldn't take much to be any better. As you know in these parts, one good storm can essentially make the entire winter. But you probably knew that's what I meant. I think last year was as much bad luck as it was a crappy pattern. I'd like to see a "recovery winter" (so to speak), much like 2002-03 was after 2001-02.

Anyhow, I'm glad to see "early indications" that are in our favor. I'm sure everyone would like to kick this prolonged Nina to the curb!

And like I said, first thing that would be nice is that we don't have the awful summer heat like we've had the past two summers, especially the past couple of Julys. Softball double-headers in 102 degree heat just ain't that fun!

I think my post came off wrong. I posting at you directly. I was posting at "us". The fellow predictable weenies of which I am one.

As the weeks go by there is more and more evidence in our favor that points toward "potential". I've been going over some data and pulling some analogs that I like and are "reasonable", Alot of them are colder than normal (especially in Jan-Mar). I don't worry too much about the analogs that didn't produce much snow. I always think alot of times that's more of a function of crappy timing in the short range vs. a favorable larger scale pattern. Our nemesis more often than not is temps so that is always the single most important ingredient. I'm pretty sick of thread the needle. The last 2 winters have sucked in that department.

So, the million dollar question is do we get a mod Nino AND an active stj AND at the very least an occaisional -nao/ao combo (which was strangely nonexistent from start to finish last year)?

[Bob Chill]

I've been looking forward to a moderate Nino for '12-'13 since we exited '09-'10. I've been encouraged to see the dynamical models lead in that direction since early this past spring. My "forecast" (guess) is that NDJ ends up in the +.9 to +1.1 range. I'm likewise not too worried about the NAO state this winter. I think a Nino following a Nina is going to lead to a pretty blocky mess. We shall see...

I've no clue on the AO, and no idea where to begin. We've enough cases of -NAO, if not even strong -NAO, that ended up mild outside of extreme northern New England, if not just northern Maine, to give me pause.

There seems to be a correlation with mod Ninos following Nina's and -ao's. Especially during Jan-Feb. It may exist with Nino's in general but I haven't looked that close yet. I'll eventually post my data in this thread once I finish going through it and making sure there aren't errors.

I know what you mean about a -nao with only NE getting the cold but I think that wouldn't be favored during a Nino (assuming an active stj)? IIRC- Nino's generally have a ridge w and trough east with the polar jet when the stj is active.

[mitchnick]

There seems to be a correlation with mod Ninos following Nina's and -ao's. Especially during Jan-Feb. It may exist with Nino's in general but I haven't looked that close yet. I'll eventually post my data in this thread once I finish going through it and making sure there aren't errors.

I know what you mean about a -nao with only NE getting the cold but I think that wouldn't be favored during a Nino (assuming an active stj)? IIRC- Nino's generally have a ridge w and trough east with the polar jet when the stj is active.

what I find even more promising with the CFS and CFS2 ENSO forecasts are that both seems to have the max NINO temps just east of the dateline (or thereabouts,) which should lead to the best forcing...exactly where I recall Wes saying in 09/10 the M.A. needs it (and had it that winter)

[CoastalWx]

The euro seasonals look decent for SON (that's as far as they go). It has a decent ridge anomaly near the southern coast of AK. It does show a mild Fall however, but regardless..at least it has some decent pieces coming together FWIW.

[mappy]

All I ask is for any snowstorms to take place after the middle of December, like around Christmas is perfect. Ill pass on anything before that.

[mitchnick]

The euro seasonals look decent for SON (that's as far as they go). It has a decent ridge anomaly near the southern coast of AK. It does show a mild Fall however, but regardless..at least it has some decent pieces coming together FWIW.

thanks for the info

I'm seeing some typical NINO characteristics showing up on the CFS and CFS2 with a dry OV and AN precip along the SE coast

temp forecasts at this point are a shot in the dark

all I know is I'll take a NINO over a NINA any year; snowy NINA's do nothing but skew the realities of a typical NINA winter in the MA

[Bob Chill]

thanks for the info

I'm seeing some typical NINO characteristics showing up on the CFS and CFS2 with a dry OV and AN precip along the SE coast

temp forecasts at this point are a shot in the dark

all I know is I'll take a NINO over a NINA any year; snowy NINA's do nothing but skew the realities of a typical NINA winter in the MA

Classic Nino stj on the way?

We still sweat it out around here as the polar jet scares us. Miller A's are great and all until they track to our west. lol.

At the very least, we can be a bit optimistic leading into the winter. The best part about a typical Nino jet setup is that we don't have to thread the damn needle every time AND models do much better @ days 3-7. Also having precip exist well in advance always increases entertainment value from days 3-4 on in.

The 2 most recent examples of multi-year cold followed by warm enso are 02-03 and 09-10. Not saying I think a blockbuster is on the way but recent history shows that we can be a little stoked early on and not be called hopeless weenies.

[mitchnick]

Classic Nino stj on the way?

We still sweat it out around here as the polar jet scares us. Miller A's are great and all until they track to our west. lol.

At the very least, we can be a bit optimistic leading into the winter. The best part about a typical Nino jet setup is that we don't have to thread the damn needle every time AND models do much better @ days 3-7. Also having precip exist well in advance always increases entertainment value from days 3-4 on in.

The 2 most recent examples of multi-year cold followed by warm enso are 02-03 and 09-10. Not saying I think a blockbuster is on the way but recent history shows that we can be a little stoked early on and not be called hopeless weenies.

Bob, these graphs are off LWX; top one shows NINA snowfall at BWI and bottom one NINO

I'll rest my case when it comes choosing NINO over NINA regardless of other conditions

[usedtobe]

I'll be talking about El NIno and how it impacts snowfall along the east coast using dca, nyc and BOS as base points. Nino years can be real good but can also be stinkers like 1997-1998. Only about half the El Ninos seasons have above normal snowfall at DCA but the average is for El Nino years is well above average because the good years usually are well above average and the bad can only go to zero. A 50 Percent chance of an above normal winter is higher than in most years as only 1 in 3 or 4 are above normal, that's why the median is always lower than the mean or average.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

I think my post came off wrong. I posting at you directly. I was posting at "us". The fellow predictable weenies of which I am one.

As the weeks go by there is more and more evidence in our favor that points toward "potential". I've been going over some data and pulling some analogs that I like and are "reasonable", Alot of them are colder than normal (especially in Jan-Mar). I don't worry too much about the analogs that didn't produce much snow. I always think alot of times that's more of a function of crappy timing in the short range vs. a favorable larger scale pattern. Our nemesis more often than not is temps so that is always the single most important ingredient. I'm pretty sick of thread the needle. The last 2 winters have sucked in that department.

So, the million dollar question is do we get a mod Nino AND an active stj AND at the very least an occaisional -nao/ao combo (which was strangely nonexistent from start to finish last year)?

Gotcha...figured you were talking to "us", and the weenie in all of us. And I'm admittedly as big winter weather weenie as they come, always have been!! But also a realist and understand the meteorology/climatology of what you need for a good snow event. At this point, it's just good to hear the indications look positive (seem to recall last year at this time, there were already mumblings of things not looking very good for last winter).

Last winter's almost non-existent -nao/ao was pretty remarkable, as was the complete lack of east coast storms anywhere (of either the rain or snow variety). I believe the only east coast systems of note were the early season one in October that hit the interior portions of New England pretty hard, and one in April that gave us a good bit of much needed rain.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

I'll be talking about El NIno and how it impacts snowfall along the east coast using dca, nyc and BOS as base points. Nino years can be real good but can also be stinkers like 1997-1998. Only about half the El Ninos seasons have above normal snowfall at DCA but the average is for El Nino years is well above average because the good years usually are well above average and the bad can only go to zero. A 50 Percent chance of an above normal winter is higher than in most years as only 1 in 3 or 4 are above normal, that's why the median is always lower than the mean or average.

Looking forward to your discussion, Wes! And you're absolutely right concerning the basic stats on snowfall around here in El Nino winters (or other ENSO states, for that matter). Basically, when we hit it good, we really hammer it (a'la 2002-03, 2009-10), but if it's a dud, it's really a dud (1997-98)...and so averages to above normal snow overall for El Nino years. As you say, the worst you can get is of course 0", so there's an absolute minimum on the scale. Thank goodness!

One thing that took me awhile to get used to around here...having grown up in northeast Ohio...is that the mean snowfall is almost meaningless in the DC area. It really is feast or famine most winters with a huge standard deviation. Sure, the average is 15" or 18" or whatever (depending on where you live), but you'll either get 30" or 5" it seems! In northeast OH, the standard deviation is much smaller. Even a "bad" winter isn't totally awful (unless it's really unusual); likewise, an above normal winer isn't necessarily a record-breaking big hit (though I've seen those). So the average there is ~60" (at KCLE), and you can pretty well figure on 50-70" most every year fairly reliably. Part of that, of course, is due to the fact that the mean is significantly higher there than here, not to mention lake effect snow and winters are just normally colder there than around here. But the individual synoptic scale "big storms" that we get here are substantially greater than the ones in Ohio; a 12"+ storm there isn't all that common, but you'll get lots of 4-8", or 6-10", as well as the "nickel and dime" amounts that add up. Put another way, KCLE's greatest 24-h snow is on the order of 17". Growing up there I remember my share of big events in terms of cold, wind, and snow (including the infamous January 1978 blizzard!), but never got more than about 15" in any single event (excluding perhaps lake effect snows). Here in the DC area...in 2009-10 I experienced 20" in December and 23.5" in the February storm...not to mention about 20" from the PD-II storm in 2003.

Well, apologies for that long and meandering reply, but hope you didn't mind!

[Bob Chill]

It's hard not to like this. I'll post analog Nino trimonthly data later on but the ideal ENSO scenario is region 3.4 trimonthlies peaking in the 1.0 - 1.50 range sometime in the djf or jfm range. Anything over 1.5 starts to get scary but I don't think that is likely at all or even being hinted at in the forecasts.

The weenie in me is liking what appears to be a long duration +ao/nao cycle being broken and the endless + temp anoms backing off right now. Have no idea if this tendency is more of a longer term trend but it could be the case. We'll know in the next month or 2.

Edit: I just noticed that the last 4 enso trimonthlies are identical to 2006. Nothing more than a coincidence but it caught my eye. Even though 06-07 was a weak nino Dec & Jan were dominated by a +NAO/AO combo so the winter was a stinker except for the Feb storm that melted away in 15 minutes.

[mitchnick]

fwiw, the late Jack from Storm Vista used to often mention a study showing colder than normal temps (May-July period preceding winter I think) off New Newfoundland suggested a colder than normal winter in the east

we had the cold pool off NF in 09', but it was further east than the area Jack spoke off (I think his buddy, Harry, argued further east was OK too-I can't recall the exact details of the thread)

anyway, current maps do show colder than normal temps off NF, probably a bit east of what Jack looked for but in the same area as 09'

this isn't intended as a guarantee for a great winter, just one of those little pieces to consider

http://weather.unisy...anddiv=hide_bar

http://www.osdpd.noa...t.6.18.2012.gif

here's the SSTA map from Unisys from 6/19/09 to compare to the link above

http://weather.unisy...anom-090621.gif

[usedtobe]

Wes...

I'm trying to learn more about the global teleconnections, so pardon the n00b question.

For DC/BWI/PHI snows, the AO has to be in a positive state, correct? To that effect, the same area needs a -NAO, +PDO, slightly positive ENSO, and -PNA.

The AO like the NAO needs to be negative. The NAO more or less just measures the eastern extension of the AO so if the AO is negative the NOA usually but not always is negative. You want high eights across the polar regions.

[Deck Pic]

The AO like the NAO needs to be negative. The NAO more or less just measures the eastern extension of the AO so if the AO is negative the NOA usually but not always is negative. You want high eights across the polar regions.

I used to think the PNA matters...now I don't care...I just want blocking and hope everything else falls into place

[mitchnick]

I used to think the PNA matters...now I don't care...I just want blocking and hope everything else falls into place

maybe it's me, but it only seems to matter when we "just miss" snow

[Eskimo Joe]

The AO like the NAO needs to be negative. The NAO more or less just measures the eastern extension of the AO so if the AO is negative the NOA usually but not always is negative. You want high eights across the polar regions.

Thanks for the info.

[Met1985]

Great discussion in the thread about the upcoming winter and what might come.

[Feb]

Great discussion in the thread about the upcoming winter and what might come.

Agreed. Nice to read about what may come on this hot as hell day.

[HM]

It is still early yet, but particular attention should be paid to the base of ENSO as it develops late in the summer into autumn. Right now, you cannot say either way which base the upcoming ENSO will be, even with the "east-based" look it has now. Most of the time, this is the way a developing El Nino looks early in the summer (not always).

The stratosphere is MUCH more meaningful in El Nino than La Nina (e.g 2007-08 and 2009-10 both had similar players in the stratosphere). Going to be interesting to see which way the waves in zonal wind and solar activity behave.

[Bob Chill]

maybe it's me, but it only seems to matter when we "just miss" snow

It sure does with split pj flow setups. God I hate those. Miller A's are different. Even with a neutral or even -pna, a -nao will put up the wall to keep it from cutting. The +pna is pretty important with the big ones through. But not required by any stretch when you have a -nao and energy tracking along the gulf coast.

I need a favor from a stat keeper. I'm looking for the start and end date and snowfall amount of every 6+" storm in DC for the following years:

51-55

57-58

65-66

76-77

86-87

02-03

06-07

09-10

I have an idea I want to research and if there is a correlation then it's probably going to be a really good dataset for future reference.

[Deck Pic]

It sure does with split pj flow setups. God I hate those. Miller A's are different. Even with a neutral or even -pna, a -nao will put up the wall to keep it from cutting. The +pna is pretty important with the big ones through. But not required by any stretch when you have a -nao and energy tracking along the gulf coast.

I need a favor from a stat keeper. I'm looking for the start and end date and snowfall amount of every 6+" storm in DC for the following years:

51-55

57-58

65-66

76-77

86-87

02-03

06-07

09-10

I have an idea I want to research and if there is a correlation then it's probably going to be a really good dataset for future reference.

51-52 and 06-07 didnt have one...the rest had at least one, metro wide at least