mappy Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 We might be in a long term -NAO cycle but as a person with no long range knowledge I've wondered if we're due to go positive for a while just since it's been negative for so long. Given our "luck" winter seems like a good time for that. I know people like to read the tea leaves and think a coastal track this early is good news but I'd be pretty skeptical of that. Our odds of a great winter have to be very low. Per Adam (and Mark) on twitter... It looks to go positive, hence the torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Per Adam (and Mark) on twitter... It looks to go positive, hence the torch It's all but a lock that we are in for a warm period. Couple of weeks maybe with a progressive break in between. We just need to pray the +ao/nao doesn't find a parking spot. We've seen time and time again that once it does it usually takes a while to leave its spot. Luckily guidance shows the +ao/nao peaking out and then breaking down towards the 24th or so. We can probably add a week to that but that's fine. All eyes on December. God help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 As of late euro monthlies have not been reliable. The op model could'nt even get this storm right within a few days.....lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 It's all but a lock that we are in for a warm period. Couple of weeks maybe with a progressive break in between. We just need to pray the +ao/nao doesn't find a parking spot. We've seen time and time again that once it does it usually takes a while to leave its spot. Luckily guidance shows the +ao/nao peaking out and then breaking down towards the 24th or so. We can probably add a week to that but that's fine. All eyes on December. God help us. I wouldn't mind a warm December, but I've got my own selfish reasons for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 mapgirl, You're on a weather forum, don't you want wild & extreme weather?! Screw a mild December haha. I hope by Thanksgiving we start to see signs of a -NAO beginning to reform in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 mapgirl, You're on a weather forum, don't you want wild & extreme weather?! Screw a mild December haha. I hope by Thanksgiving we start to see signs of a -NAO beginning to reform in the LR. She has a very valid reason for rooting for a warm Dec and if it is warm I will be happy for her. She better be rooting for a new year's blizzard though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Don't worry...October Siberian snow over will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 mapgirl, You're on a weather forum, don't you want wild & extreme weather?! Screw a mild December haha. I hope by Thanksgiving we start to see signs of a -NAO beginning to reform in the LR. Of course I want a snowy winter, however as Bob mentioned, I do have a very good reason for wanting December to NOT be it. It's called having a due date smack dab in the middle of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 She has a very valid reason for rooting for a warm Dec and if it is warm I will be happy for her. She better be rooting for a new year's blizzard though. It can snow it's ass off as soon as I'm home from the hospital Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 It can snow it's ass off as soon as I'm home from the hospital Grow a pair! My son's due date was Feb 6, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Grow a pair! My son's due date was Feb 6, 2010. And you've already said she was late! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Grow a pair! My son's due date was Feb 6, 2010. Mine is January 21, 2013. But considering the likelihood of it snowing heavily enough to impede travel on any given day, I'm not sweating it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 And you've already said she was late! There was still 3 feet of snow on the ground when she went into labor. I'll help shovel the dusting off your driveway if it makes you and your hubby feel better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 There was still 3 feet of snow on the ground when she went into labor. I'll help shovel the dusting off your driveway if it makes you and your hubby feel better I use my backpack leaf blower for dustings up to 2". Works great on the cars too. At first my neighbors laughed. Now they copy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 There was still 3 feet of snow on the ground when she went into labor. I'll help shovel the dusting off your driveway if it makes you and your hubby feel better He wants snow! It's just me worrying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 I use my backpack leaf blower for dustings up to 2". Works great on the cars too. At first my neighbors laughed. Now they copy. Great idea, Bob. I'm stealing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Of course I want a snowy winter, however as Bob mentioned, I do have a very good reason for wanting December to NOT be it. It's called having a due date smack dab in the middle of the month Join the club. However, I wish for there to be S+ as I cut the cord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Join the club. However, I wish for there to be S+ as I cut the cord. well should something pop up in our due date timeframe - I will wish for it to go north for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 well should something pop up in our due date timeframe - I will wish for it to go north for you LOL, well good luck with the remaining weeks and with delivery. Wish you the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 LOL, well good luck with the remaining weeks and with delivery. Wish you the best. Thanks! Same to you and your wife! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Nino blowing up...PDO tanking again Matt, I think that is going to be only a temporary warming due to a Kelvin wave when it passes, temps should cool again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Matt, I think that is going to be only a temporary warming due to a Kelvin wave when it passes, temps should cool again. Party pooper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 What are you -ing at? El Nino or the PDO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Latest JAMSTEC is COLD. The model is in its wheelhouse time frame now. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Does anyone know where I can find surface low maps from the three 09-10 blizzards, '03 & '00? Like the iconic '96 map that's posted so often. I want to make them into a decorative collage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Does anyone know where I can find surface low maps from the three 09-10 blizzards, '03 & '00? Like the iconic '96 map that's posted so often. I want to make them into a decorative collage. This site may not go back to 1996 but does get the other events. http://www.hpc.ncep....x_20120101.html This site should get you the rest. You'll have to download a viewer. http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/data_rescue_daily_weather_maps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Does anyone know where I can find surface low maps from the three 09-10 blizzards, '03 & '00? Like the iconic '96 map that's posted so often. I want to make them into a decorative collage. Check out famartin's archive. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Well, here's zwyts' posting popularity poll ending on 11/19 @ 2:45pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Well, here's zwyts' posting popularity poll ending on 11/19 @ 2:45pm. LOL. At least the southern track would potentially give us some snow to slop, and maybe a couple of clippers might track far enough south. Give me some precip, I'll roll the dice on temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Colder temperatures will be knocking on our doors real soon. We crawl before we walk and so does the weather! Lets get the temperatures down first and hope the precip follows soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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