aldie 22 Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 I like snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 bust 10OCT2012 20.2-0.6 24.7-0.2 26.8 0.1 29.1 0.4 Though latest satellite shows some improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Another update from Rob Guarino, i think he might be joining Foot's forecast. http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 I'm a bit surprised at the nino flatlining. I think we all pretty much had a 1 - 1.5 in mind for months but that might be off the table. I think it was zwyts that said neutral after multi year nina is one of the worst enso combos? I found a November signal with the state of the AO that looks pretty interesting. Gotta finish crunching before I post it. It's quite interesting actually. It may correlate better statistically than the Dec signal but I still have a good bit of work to do so I might be out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Another update from Rob Guarino, i think he might be joining Foot's forecast. http://www.liveweath...1122&Itemid=179 Doesn't look that updated to me. It says updated at the top, but it looks like everything below that is just copy/pasted. All the old graphics remain, including the ENSO stuff that ended in August. Still lots of extra, unnecessary pictures clogging up the post as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Doesn't look that updated to me. It says updated at the top, but it looks like everything below that is just copy/pasted. All the old graphics remain, including the ENSO stuff that ended in August. Still lots of extra, unnecessary pictures clogging up the post as well. It's a horrific layout, and it's making my work computer go bonkers. The flash or whatever he has going on in it is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Rob's site is awful. He needs less ads and more content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Here is a ranking of nino strength at this time in their evolution..around 10/10...12-13 is not even in the same ballpark as any of the others...not even close 97-98 02-03 91-92 94-95 06-07 09-10 04-05 12-13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 I'm a bit surprised at the nino flatlining. I think we all pretty much had a 1 - 1.5 in mind for months but that might be off the table. I think it was zwyts that said neutral after multi year nina is one of the worst enso combos? I found a November signal with the state of the AO that looks pretty interesting. Gotta finish crunching before I post it. It's quite interesting actually. It may correlate better statistically than the Dec signal but I still have a good bit of work to do so I might be out to lunch. Well I didn't. I said on Accuweather boards in August that anyone expecting an 02/03 repeat was a wishcaster. This was always gonna be weak at best, maybe even neutral. Having said that, I'm not sure how the actual winter plays out though. I'm leaning towards warmer than average and mostly snowless for BWI but I'm not sure yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Doesn't look that updated to me. It says updated at the top, but it looks like everything below that is just copy/pasted. All the old graphics remain, including the ENSO stuff that ended in August. Still lots of extra, unnecessary pictures clogging up the post as well. It looks like he just changed a few things so he can say he updated, and this way he can take in more ad money with more page views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 ENSO strength most similar to 2012 in early to mid October...not suggesting these are analogs 1990 1993 2001 2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 EURO long range off Euro site. You can't quite get to DCA/BWI area on this map, but temps and precip look to be average through near southern VA TEMPS: http://www.ecmwf.int...ercile summary/ PRECIP: http://www.ecmwf.int...ercile summary/ EDIT: This is for the NOV-JAN period in case you missed it on the links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 JB tweet in amongst the political rants: Brazilian meteograms has Chicago hitting 15 between Nov 15 and 20 and Snow in DC between 15 and 2oth How does the 800hr Brazilian compare to the 384hr GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 JB tweet in amongst the political rants: How does the 800hr Brazilian compare to the 384hr GFS? A large pile of crap alongside a lesser pile of crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 JB tweet in amongst the political rants: How does the 800hr Brazilian compare to the 384hr GFS? Omg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 ENSO strength most similar to 2012 in early to mid October...not suggesting these are analogs 1990 1993 2001 2005 Big Feb snowstorm or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 JB tweet in amongst the political rants: How does the 800hr Brazilian compare to the 384hr GFS? I think he is talking about waxings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Big Feb snowstorm or bust 1990-1991 and 2001-2002 were pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 1990-1991 and 2001-2002 were pretty sweet. They sucked for the DCA area.....the two year snowfall total was 11.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 They sucked for the DCA area.....the two year snowfall total was 11.2. Yeah I was being facetious...they were horrendous winters here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Yeah I was being facetious...they were horrendous winters here as well. Right now I'm rooting for the increased snow cover hoping it nudges us towards a neg ao or nao for awhile this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 A winterless winter followed by a winterless winter. What a disaster that would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Right now I'm rooting for the increased snow cover hoping it nudges us towards a neg ao or nao for awhile this winter. It's looking good so far and the forecast for the next 10 days is very promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 It's looking good so far and the forecast for the next 10 days is very promising. Agreed...we may end up with some pretty impressive snow cover numbers in Siberia/Eurasia by the time the next 7-10 days are up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 A winterless winter followed by a winterless winter. What a disaster that would be. Or rather a warm and snowless winter followed by a cool and snowless winter. Yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Eurasian snow cover may beat 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Eurasian snow cover may beat 2009 Latest CFS says Judah Cohen can suck an egg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 When you want some confirmation of the Brazilian Op...you gotta go with the Brazilian Ensembles: Brazilian ensembles seeing cold and even snow..all the way to NYC in month of November.Dont know about snow in NYC, but the cold is coming Interestingly enough, the Brazilian is well supported by the Uruguyan Op, Angolan ensembles and Kazakh beta-test Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 SEP PDO: -2.21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I'm starting to like 1990 as an analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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