Great_Horned_Owl Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 We know how well they nailed it last year:-( Have faith !! don't burst my bubble yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 disaster....2004, 2006.....looked way better at the same time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 new analog....96-97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 October is go time in almost any nino....If we can't strengthen in the next 2-3 weeks, epic failure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 October is go time in almost any nino....If we can't strengthen in the next 2-3 weeks, epic failure Brett Anderson already called time of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 He mentions 2 things that make sense,one that it is hard to predict indices like the nao beyond 30 days and that the 2008-09 analog is now coming into play. That winter was cold with near average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 new analog....96-97 Not terrible for my area. 26.4" at MRB that year. Almost exactly average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Not terrible for my area. 26.4" at MRB that year. Almost exactly average. There were 3 decent events for the burbs that weren't as good for DC. One in early January, one in early feb and one mid march. I think the one in feb dumped around 6-10" out there? April fools missed you I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 He mentions 2 things that make sense,one that it is hard to predict indices like the nao beyond 30 days and that the 2008-09 analog is now coming into play. That winter was cold with near average snowfall. That winter sucked. The only storm with real snow was March 1 and it completely whiffed a bunch of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 6, 2012 Author Share Posted October 6, 2012 CFS2 now has normal temps and precip DEC-FEB...I'll gladly take that EDIT: precip "technically" normal, but we are surrounded by a hair under normal, but that will change tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 CFS V2 doesn't impress me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 failure 03OCT2012 20.5-0.1 24.8-0.1 26.8 0.1 29.0 0.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 8, 2012 Author Share Posted October 8, 2012 failure 03OCT2012 20.5-0.1 24.8-0.1 26.8 0.1 29.0 0.3 NINO, yes, but not the winter per the LR models maybe they are all wrong now and will change in the Oct. update, but until that happens, we wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 NINO, yes, but not the winter per the LR models maybe they are all wrong now and will change in the Oct. update, but until that happens, we wait I personally don't care what the CFS says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 8, 2012 Author Share Posted October 8, 2012 I personally don't care what the CFS says when I said "models" I was referring to the Euro and JAMSTEC which, along with the CFS, showed normal temps for D-F in their Sept. updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 8, 2012 Author Share Posted October 8, 2012 per the NE winter thread, Euro just updated and has a decent ridge in AK, weak SE ridge and barely positive NAO I'll take a normal+/- winter this year and those ingredients sound like they could do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 DT and others starting to show some mild concern about the vortex over Asia.....still way early...could help with snowcover for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 CFS2 now has normal temps and precip DEC-FEB...I'll gladly take that EDIT: precip "technically" normal, but we are surrounded by a hair under normal, but that will change tomorrow! our normal temp is 44. You need it to 28 to snow. Good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 our normal temp is 44. You need it to 28 to snow. Good luck with that. Since when does it have to be 28 to snow? Sure, it can't be 44, but average temps and precip means average snowfall. I'll take "average" after last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 8, 2012 Author Share Posted October 8, 2012 our normal temp is 44. You need it to 28 to snow. Good luck with that. winters that end within a 1/2 of 1 degree of average temps over the months of DEC-FEB are cold enough for snow on the other hand, there are winters that are below ave. temps with little snow and above ave. temps with above ave. snows average temps for the 3 month period give us a decent shot at ave. snow and after last year, we'll be feeling like we live in NE if we can get that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 CFS2 has gone cold again for the east based on latest snapshot http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 10, 2012 Author Share Posted October 10, 2012 CFS2 has gone cold again for the east based on latest snapshot http://origin.cpc.nc...usT2me3Mon.html still coming in a little dry, but I'll keep my fingers crossed on that part if we can at least get normal type temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 still coming in a little dry, but I'll keep my fingers crossed on that part if we can at least get normal type temps the 850 anomoly map is much colder than the surface temps. Wet snow baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Windy. Yay. Edit: That was supposed to be in the obs thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Nino, GOA looking somewhat better than a week ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Nino, GOA looking somewhat better than a week ago HM honking for a west-based Nino that is not dead, in the NE thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 the 850 anomoly map is much colder than the surface temps. Wet snow baby! Well it's been bouncing around over the past couple of months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 13, 2012 Author Share Posted October 13, 2012 Well it's been bouncing around over the past couple of months. the good news, if there is any, is that the CFS2 current forecasts are the coolest/coldest they have been for the DEC-FEB period than they have been all this year once in range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 I'm wondering if the cold pool (SSTs) by the Azores has anything to do with Nadine hanging out so long in that area. A little upwelling that might (probably not) have had an affect someplace in the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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