aldie 22 Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Ellinwood just went cold for Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Ellinwood just went cold for Winter I guess the concept now is that if the Nino is very weak or neutral it will not play a major role and instead the negative NAO will rule the roost. It was nice to see some mega blocking show up on the models with Sandy. The precip maps looked a lot like 2009-2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 I guess the concept now is that if the Nino is very weak or neutral it will not play a major role and instead the negative NAO will rule the roost. It was nice to see some mega blocking show up on the models with Sandy. The precip maps looked a lot like 2009-2010. Pretty much... I feel there will still be a weak Nino background signal overall, but the main drivers for this winter IMO will be the -NAO/-AO, and if it can stick around the -WPO, which has been quite negative through this month and is forecast to remain negative through at least the first half of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Pretty much agree. It is significant seeing the AO/NAO running negative in October. More important in Nov-Dec of course but the bias definitely seems to be negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 HM mentioned things may be lining up for cold and snowy...mentioned it in the New England forum so he may only be talking for up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 boy, this sure looks good if we can keep it up at least half the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 another reason why the CFS2 forecast of us being at or below normal temps this winter may be more right than wrong....the cold is on our side of the globe http://origin.cpc.nc...euT2me3Mon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Besides where we live....what's the biggest fly in our winter ointment this year....neutral following nina....pdo...what? I'm feeling a tad optimistic heading into the winter and that's an uneasy feeling..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Besides where we live....what's the biggest fly in our winter ointment this year....neutral following nina....pdo...what? I'm feeling a tad optimistic heading into the winter and that's an uneasy feeling..lol If conditions in the Atlantic were to shift faster then predicted and we were to lose our -NAO signature. The Pacific is only marginal at best so if we were to resume a +NAO our prospects of a snowy winter would probably be toast. There are lots of other moving parts in the equation of course but that would be the one that would really ruin things since the NAO might have the most significant correlation with snowfall for our region and it can be so tricky to predict long term. Plus other signals are weak enough right now that the NAO could dominate the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 If conditions in the Atlantic were to shift faster then predicted and we were to lose our -NAO signature. The Pacific is only marginal at best so if we were to resume a +NAO our prospects of a snowy winter would probably be toast. There are lots of other moving parts in the equation of course but that would be the one that would really ruin things since the NAO might have the most significant correlation with snowfall for our region and it can be so tricky to predict long term. Plus other signals are weak enough right now that the NAO could dominate the pattern. Most reliable models and forecasters are saying the nao will remain negative for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Most reliable models and forecasters are saying the nao will remain negative for awhile. Gfs, Euro, and both of their ensembles have the Nao going positive and staying there, at least a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Gfs, Euro, and both of their ensembles have the Nao going positive and staying there, at least a while. I see some neutral stuff, but not really anything I'd consider to be "positive and staying there." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I see some neutral stuff, but not really anything I'd consider to be "positive and staying there." I'm just going off the NAO charts on the Raleigh site. I think they only go 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I'm just going off the NAO charts on the Raleigh site. I think they only go 10 days. Ah, I see em. Yeah, I don't know how he calculates those, but I can tell ya that the ensemble means aren't as positive as those graphs would lead you to believe. I've got each individual member's values plotted on my company's site, and both ensemble means stay neutral to slightly negative throughout the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Most reliable models and forecasters are saying the nao will remain negative for awhile. I wasn't making a prediction, I was just saying what the biggest "risk" would be for our winter to turn into another dud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Ah, I see em. Yeah, I don't know how he calculates those, but I can tell ya that the ensemble means aren't as positive as those graphs would lead you to believe. I've got each individual member's values plotted on my company's site, and both ensemble means stay neutral to slightly negative throughout the run. Isn't the NAO a difficult thing to predict? Anyway, here's to an overall negative NAO for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Oct AO monthly came in a -1.514. It just missed the 60 year record of -1.540 set in Oct 2009. The only other year that it was even close to -1.5 was in 2002 when it came in at -1.489. The next year behind that was 1979 @ -1.243. 02, 09, and 79 is some good company... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Besides where we live....what's the biggest fly in our winter ointment this year....neutral following nina....pdo...what? I'm feeling a tad optimistic heading into the winter and that's an uneasy feeling..lol My biggest worry at this point would be a lack of a meaningful southern stream. I'm worried about a winter that'd offer "all the Miller-As you could ever hope for..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 My biggest worry at this point would be a lack of a meaningful southern stream. I'm worried about a winter that'd offer "all the Miller-As you could ever hope for..." I'm with you. We've seen it before, and we know full well how that story ends for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 maybe, maybe not...we can still hope and pray http://www.cpc.ncep....sPrece3Mon.html Based on that, it would be a good, juicy southern stream in January, then a dominant northern stream in February. If we get that kind of moisture in January, it could make our winter. I'd take a bangin' few weeks in January and call it a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 december is a disaster per CFS http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20121107.201212.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 december is a disaster per CFS http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20121107.201212.gif Don't worry, that's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 8, 2012 Author Share Posted November 8, 2012 december is a disaster per CFS http://www.cpc.ncep....1107.201212.gif and then there's this CFS2 Dec temp forecast http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd2.gif no wonder they're never wrong with that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 and then there's this CFS2 Dec temp forecast http://origin.cpc.nc...sT2mMonInd2.gif no wonder they're never wrong with that model I honestly have no idea what the CFS/CFS2 are for. There are different versions of it (are they like ensembles?), so I don't know which ones to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 8, 2012 Author Share Posted November 8, 2012 I honestly have no idea what the CFS/CFS2 are for. There are different versions of it (are they like ensembles?), so I don't know which ones to use. CFS is no longer run, so it's only the CFS2 the one that JI posted uses a different initial condition period than the link I posted other than that, I don't know why they look so different especially since they are both updated daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 december is a disaster per CFS http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20121107.201212.gif Per Euro monthlies, the whole winter is a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Per Euro monthlies, the whole winter is a disaster I'd go with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 I'd go with that Torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Torch! We might be in a long term -NAO cycle but as a person with no long range knowledge I've wondered if we're due to go positive for a while just since it's been negative for so long. Given our "luck" winter seems like a good time for that. I know people like to read the tea leaves and think a coastal track this early is good news but I'd be pretty skeptical of that. Our odds of a great winter have to be very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 We might be in a long term -NAO cycle but as a person with no long range knowledge I've wondered if we're due to go positive for a while just since it's been negative for so long. Given our "luck" winter seems like a good time for that. I know people like to read the tea leaves and think a coastal track this early is good news but I'd be pretty skeptical of that. Our odds of a great winter have to be very low. I think all we're really asking for is an average winter. A normal one that's full of little cold and warm periods. Some normal amplified periods mixed in with pac zonal. Anything but a full blown pac zonal +3 from mid dec - end of feb. Over even worse.....-pna w/ se ridge +5. I wouldn't mind a winter with the important indices swinging up and down. Not parked for 6 weeks only to flip the other way and find a parking spot. It would be nice to be tracking real potential on a weekly basis instead of tracking the desperately needed pattern change that is 15 days away and pushing back with each model run. We might have a chance at variable winter. No dominant signal yet. Enso looks like a non event. Maybe that's a good thing. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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