mitchnick Posted October 8, 2012 Author Share Posted October 8, 2012 failure 03OCT2012 20.5-0.1 24.8-0.1 26.8 0.1 29.0 0.3 NINO, yes, but not the winter per the LR models maybe they are all wrong now and will change in the Oct. update, but until that happens, we wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 8, 2012 Author Share Posted October 8, 2012 I personally don't care what the CFS says when I said "models" I was referring to the Euro and JAMSTEC which, along with the CFS, showed normal temps for D-F in their Sept. updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 8, 2012 Author Share Posted October 8, 2012 per the NE winter thread, Euro just updated and has a decent ridge in AK, weak SE ridge and barely positive NAO I'll take a normal+/- winter this year and those ingredients sound like they could do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 CFS2 now has normal temps and precip DEC-FEB...I'll gladly take that EDIT: precip "technically" normal, but we are surrounded by a hair under normal, but that will change tomorrow! our normal temp is 44. You need it to 28 to snow. Good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 our normal temp is 44. You need it to 28 to snow. Good luck with that. Since when does it have to be 28 to snow? Sure, it can't be 44, but average temps and precip means average snowfall. I'll take "average" after last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 8, 2012 Author Share Posted October 8, 2012 our normal temp is 44. You need it to 28 to snow. Good luck with that. winters that end within a 1/2 of 1 degree of average temps over the months of DEC-FEB are cold enough for snow on the other hand, there are winters that are below ave. temps with little snow and above ave. temps with above ave. snows average temps for the 3 month period give us a decent shot at ave. snow and after last year, we'll be feeling like we live in NE if we can get that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 CFS2 has gone cold again for the east based on latest snapshot http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 10, 2012 Author Share Posted October 10, 2012 CFS2 has gone cold again for the east based on latest snapshot http://origin.cpc.nc...usT2me3Mon.html still coming in a little dry, but I'll keep my fingers crossed on that part if we can at least get normal type temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 still coming in a little dry, but I'll keep my fingers crossed on that part if we can at least get normal type temps the 850 anomoly map is much colder than the surface temps. Wet snow baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Windy. Yay. Edit: That was supposed to be in the obs thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Nino, GOA looking somewhat better than a week ago HM honking for a west-based Nino that is not dead, in the NE thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 the 850 anomoly map is much colder than the surface temps. Wet snow baby! Well it's been bouncing around over the past couple of months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 13, 2012 Author Share Posted October 13, 2012 Well it's been bouncing around over the past couple of months. the good news, if there is any, is that the CFS2 current forecasts are the coolest/coldest they have been for the DEC-FEB period than they have been all this year once in range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 I'm wondering if the cold pool (SSTs) by the Azores has anything to do with Nadine hanging out so long in that area. A little upwelling that might (probably not) have had an affect someplace in the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 I like snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Another update from Rob Guarino, i think he might be joining Foot's forecast. http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 I'm a bit surprised at the nino flatlining. I think we all pretty much had a 1 - 1.5 in mind for months but that might be off the table. I think it was zwyts that said neutral after multi year nina is one of the worst enso combos? I found a November signal with the state of the AO that looks pretty interesting. Gotta finish crunching before I post it. It's quite interesting actually. It may correlate better statistically than the Dec signal but I still have a good bit of work to do so I might be out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Another update from Rob Guarino, i think he might be joining Foot's forecast. http://www.liveweath...1122&Itemid=179 Doesn't look that updated to me. It says updated at the top, but it looks like everything below that is just copy/pasted. All the old graphics remain, including the ENSO stuff that ended in August. Still lots of extra, unnecessary pictures clogging up the post as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Doesn't look that updated to me. It says updated at the top, but it looks like everything below that is just copy/pasted. All the old graphics remain, including the ENSO stuff that ended in August. Still lots of extra, unnecessary pictures clogging up the post as well. It's a horrific layout, and it's making my work computer go bonkers. The flash or whatever he has going on in it is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Rob's site is awful. He needs less ads and more content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 I'm a bit surprised at the nino flatlining. I think we all pretty much had a 1 - 1.5 in mind for months but that might be off the table. I think it was zwyts that said neutral after multi year nina is one of the worst enso combos? I found a November signal with the state of the AO that looks pretty interesting. Gotta finish crunching before I post it. It's quite interesting actually. It may correlate better statistically than the Dec signal but I still have a good bit of work to do so I might be out to lunch. Well I didn't. I said on Accuweather boards in August that anyone expecting an 02/03 repeat was a wishcaster. This was always gonna be weak at best, maybe even neutral. Having said that, I'm not sure how the actual winter plays out though. I'm leaning towards warmer than average and mostly snowless for BWI but I'm not sure yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Doesn't look that updated to me. It says updated at the top, but it looks like everything below that is just copy/pasted. All the old graphics remain, including the ENSO stuff that ended in August. Still lots of extra, unnecessary pictures clogging up the post as well. It looks like he just changed a few things so he can say he updated, and this way he can take in more ad money with more page views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 EURO long range off Euro site. You can't quite get to DCA/BWI area on this map, but temps and precip look to be average through near southern VA TEMPS: http://www.ecmwf.int...ercile summary/ PRECIP: http://www.ecmwf.int...ercile summary/ EDIT: This is for the NOV-JAN period in case you missed it on the links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 JB tweet in amongst the political rants: Brazilian meteograms has Chicago hitting 15 between Nov 15 and 20 and Snow in DC between 15 and 2oth How does the 800hr Brazilian compare to the 384hr GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 JB tweet in amongst the political rants: How does the 800hr Brazilian compare to the 384hr GFS? A large pile of crap alongside a lesser pile of crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 JB tweet in amongst the political rants: How does the 800hr Brazilian compare to the 384hr GFS? Omg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 ENSO strength most similar to 2012 in early to mid October...not suggesting these are analogs 1990 1993 2001 2005 Big Feb snowstorm or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 JB tweet in amongst the political rants: How does the 800hr Brazilian compare to the 384hr GFS? I think he is talking about waxings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Big Feb snowstorm or bust 1990-1991 and 2001-2002 were pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 1990-1991 and 2001-2002 were pretty sweet. They sucked for the DCA area.....the two year snowfall total was 11.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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