MN Transplant Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 Here is a list of the 8"+ events we have gotten in weak ninos: 2/3-4/1886? 12.4" Historic MEI looks weak-Ninoish . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 So, Matt's list is-- 69-70, 76-77, 77-78, 04-05 and 06-07 Correct? Take out 06-07 and those are above average winters here - ROA CWA 69 had Christmas storm 12-18 inches region wide. Historic cold in 76-77- 12 inches or so of snow in the cold period. 77-78 had a incredible stretch of snow and ice in January with another 2 decent storms in Late Feb and March 04-05 scrapped out 15 inches or so 06-07 was horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 77-78 had the record for snow cover days till 09-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 ha.....do we even have snow records from pre 1888? Earliest I have is a trace on 11/6/1884, measurable on 11/30/1884. The Feb 1886 snow is the first 12"+. They may not be "authentic" per the NWS, but somebody recorded them. Referring back to the other thread, Feb 1899 is just fun to look at. After the two weeks of snow and cold, you lose 19" of snowcover in two days, with 1.42" of precip on 2/16/1899 with a high of 38 and low of 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 The deep - PDO is the kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 2/3-4/1886? 12.4" Historic MEI looks weak-Ninoish Even though Matt isn't counting them in his weak Nino 8"+ snowstorm analysis, did some or all of 1904-5, 1939-40, or 1963-4 have at least one 8"+ snowstorm? I'm curious since I do count them and they had impressive seasonal snow totals. Do you know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 They all did '63-'64 isn't an awful analog, but the Nino is definitely weaker than that one. That winter had a -PDO. One of the few Ninos that did...but it was only somewhat negative. Not a big -PDO like '51-'52 or '68-'69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 The deep - PDO is the kiss of death. It's getting worse. May -1.26 Jun -0.87 Jul -1.52 Aug -1.93 http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 It's getting worse. May -1.26 Jun -0.87 Jul -1.52 Aug -1.93 http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest not that it will necessarily get a whole lot better, I do think we bottomed out in August (famous last words) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 not that it will necessarily get a whole lot better, I do think we bottomed out in August (famous last words) Its def come up since the August low...but its still solidly negative. Larry had a good explanation of it earlier today in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 this link shows quite a change in the NPAC http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom_loop.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Per the following link, Nino 3.4 warmed back up even further today. So two days of warming. I'm expecting next Mon's weekly 3.4 SST anom. release to be warmer than the prior+0.3. We'll see. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Per the following link, Nino 3.4 warmed back up even further today. So two days of warming. I'm expecting next Mon's weekly 3.4 SST anom. release to be warmer than the prior+0.3. We'll see. http://www.esrl.noaa....anim.week.html The negative PDO is actually taking a beating the last few days...moreso than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 The negative PDO is actually taking a beating the last few days...moreso than I thought. My rough guess is that the PDO has fallen to the low -1's from the -1.93 of August. I wonder if the cooling south of the Aleutians has been caused primarily by a big storm in that region: http://www.americanw...l-alaska-storm/ Any opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 did anyone see this? http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/lundberg/penetrating-chi/82510 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 did anyone see this? http://www.accuweath...ating-chi/82510 Yep. He's been mentioning the 76/77 analog in several of his blogs recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/winter-forecast-snow-northeast-nyc/80787 accuweather issued their winter forecast this morning above average snowfall for the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Not sure how much sense this makes, unless they're expecting a Jan 2000 type storm track "I-95 this year in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic will have more snow than they did last year. However, as far as above-normal snowfall goes, from New York City on south and west has a better shot with more mixed rain and snow systems in New England," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 http://www.accuweath...heast-nyc/80787 accuweather issued their winter forecast this morning above average snowfall for the MA We know how well they nailed it last year:-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 3, 2012 Author Share Posted October 3, 2012 Not sure how much sense this makes, unless they're expecting a Jan 2000 type storm track think 12/25/69 and 1/25/00 type events EDIT: I have a hard time believing anyone can predict that kind of storm track this far in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 think 12/25/69 and 1/25/00 type events EDIT: I have a hard time believing anyone can predict that kind of storm track this far in advance Exactly my point. It's a silly way to predict a winter, especially without any solid reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SerialDerecho Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 http://www.accuweath...heast-nyc/80787 accuweather issued their winter forecast this morning above average snowfall for the MA That's a shocker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great_Horned_Owl Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 we have 2-3 weeks for Nino to get going...we are essentially neutral right now..we are in go time...if it can;t get going by 10/20 or so, time to declare it dead...weak at best and maybe just positive neutral Don't let me down.... I want some decent snow this year !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great_Horned_Owl Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 We know how well they nailed it last year:-( Have faith !! don't burst my bubble yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 October is go time in almost any nino....If we can't strengthen in the next 2-3 weeks, epic failure Brett Anderson already called time of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 He mentions 2 things that make sense,one that it is hard to predict indices like the nao beyond 30 days and that the 2008-09 analog is now coming into play. That winter was cold with near average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 new analog....96-97 Not terrible for my area. 26.4" at MRB that year. Almost exactly average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 He mentions 2 things that make sense,one that it is hard to predict indices like the nao beyond 30 days and that the 2008-09 analog is now coming into play. That winter was cold with near average snowfall. That winter sucked. The only storm with real snow was March 1 and it completely whiffed a bunch of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 6, 2012 Author Share Posted October 6, 2012 CFS2 now has normal temps and precip DEC-FEB...I'll gladly take that EDIT: precip "technically" normal, but we are surrounded by a hair under normal, but that will change tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 CFS V2 doesn't impress me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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