wxmeddler Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 You mean this? http://www.washingto...REeG6UZmisn9jBQ Yeah that's it, I thought there was a bigger excel made version, but this will work. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Funny how times have changed....by now I think we would have had 53's and KA's winter forecast...eh...I had fun back then even if they were wrong on occasion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Funny how times have changed....by now I think we would have had 53's and KA's winter forecast...eh...I had fun back then even if they were wrong on occasion. First day of fall-- so we've got about 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Well, we're almost to the official start of Autumn. There really should be more winter talk in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Well, we're almost to the official start of Autumn. There really should be more winter talk in here. meh. No use exhausting the topic months before the season actually begins. Enjoy the nice fall air while we've got it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 meh. No use exhausting the topic months before the season actually begins. Enjoy the nice fall air while we've got it! Um, that's kind of the point of a long-range winter thread.. You discuss the possibilities before the season arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Um, that's kind of the point of a long-range winter thread.. You discuss the possibilities before the season arrives. And we did that. Not exactly a whole lot of new stuff to keep the discussion moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 And we did that. Not exactly a whole lot of new stuff to keep the discussion moving. Must be some new info, since the some of the other regional subforum's winter threads are moving along. For example, the Euro SIPS or whatever it's called came out. What does it show for the Mid-Atlantic? Anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Must be some new info, since the some of the other regional subforum's winter threads are moving along. For example, the Euro SIPS or whatever it's called came out. What does it show for the Mid-Atlantic? Anyone know? Models do like to update every now and then... not every model update needs a discussion. If you're that desperate for all the new info you can get your eyes on, just read the other forums. I'm not trying to hinder discussion in this thread, but if people don't want to post then they're not going to post. I, for one, applaud our sub-forum's self-restraint in that we're not clinging onto every model update and that we don't celebrate/become disdained by whatever changes they show. EDIT: Also, we kind of have this severe/rain threat tomorrow that seems to be more interesting at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Models do like to update every now and then... not every model update needs a discussion. If you're that desperate for all the new info you can get your eyes on, just read the other forums. I'm not trying to hinder discussion in this thread, but if people don't want to post then they're not going to post. I, for one, applaud our sub-forum's self-restraint in that we're not clinging onto every model update and that we don't celebrate/become disdained by whatever changes they show. EDIT: Also, we kind of have this severe/rain threat tomorrow that seems to be more interesting at the moment. That'll start to happen in about two months when the 384-hour GFS gets into December 5 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Must be some new info, since the some of the other regional subforum's winter threads are moving along. For example, the Euro SIPS or whatever it's called came out. What does it show for the Mid-Atlantic? Anyone know? It showed about average temps and average precip. The pattern wasn't terrible, but not optimal for the M.A. There was a slight SE ridge, a low height anomaly over Hudson Bay region and a huge AK/GOA ridge which was probably the best feature to have optimism over. NAO was near neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 It showed about average temps and average precip. The pattern wasn't terrible, but not optimal for the M.A. There was a slight SE ridge, a low height anomaly over Hudson Bay region and a huge AK/GOA ridge which was probably the best feature to have optimism over. NAO was near neutral. average would feel cold and snowy after the last couple winters, so I'll take it and hope for a fluke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Must be some new info, since the some of the other regional subforum's winter threads are moving along. For example, the Euro SIPS or whatever it's called came out. What does it show for the Mid-Atlantic? Anyone know? What do you want to hear? That I talked to usedtobe and HM on Skype yesterday and they both called for an '09-'10 repeat? Does that work for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 It showed about average temps and average precip. The pattern wasn't terrible, but not optimal for the M.A. There was a slight SE ridge, a low height anomaly over Hudson Bay region and a huge AK/GOA ridge which was probably the best feature to have optimism over. NAO was near neutral. Thank you for the update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 What do you want to hear? That I talked to usedtobe and HM on Skype yesterday and they both called for an '09-'10 repeat? Does that work for you? If I want smartass commentary, I'll let you know. Otherwise, your input is not welcome nor needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Just for pure entertainment, check out the CFS V2 charts that show the surface pattern out months in advance. Type in 310 and go forward from there. It starts around December 5th and gets crazier as you head out into mid-month. It would make December 2009 look like a walk in the park haha. It would be hard to picture such an awesome southern stream unless this NINO can start to get its act together. http://www.wxcaster.com/cfsv2_charts.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Just for pure entertainment, check out the CFS V2 charts that show the surface pattern out months in advance. Type in 310 and go forward from there. It starts around December 5th and gets crazier as you head out into mid-month. It would make December 2009 look like a walk in the park haha. It would be hard to picture such an awesome southern stream unless this NINO can start to get its act together. http://www.wxcaster....fsv2_charts.htm whats funny about that, is i always take December 5th for my pick in the 1st snow contest for here in Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Yay! The NH snowcover thread in the main forum has begun. This is probably a bit more important to follow than other years. http://www.americanw...9-and-we-begin/ With a weak nino on our hands we are going to rely on the high latitudes to add their support or we're going to be mostly warm/wet. Let hope the snowcover builds fast a furious. It will be interesting how all the open water up near the poles is going affect the weather up there. This year is a record for icemelt and a pretty big record at that. Logic would say more open water = more available moisture = more snowfall but that is just a wag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Nino has substantially weakened over the last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 With a weak nino on our hands we are going to rely on the high latitudes to add their support or we're going to be mostly warm/wet. Let hope the snowcover builds fast a furious. I agree that high latitude blocking would be helpful. That is the case with about any ENSO phase. However, keep in mind that weak Ninos overall (longterm) have been the coldest ENSO phase on average for much of the E US (colder than mod to strong Ninos, neutral, and Ninas on avg.), especially those following La Ninas. So, if we can get the blocking, look out below! Those that also have good blocking (-NAO/-AO) have been especially cold. Granted, without an accompanying halfway decent -NAO, the chances for a cold winter are admittedly low. That's not to say that a weak Nino winter following a Nina can't be quite cold (1904-5). It also helps to have a +PDO averaged out over DJF as 1904-5 had. Admittedly, with the PDO so negative recently, the odds are against it becoming + in time for the winter. However, I do wonder if a persistent +PNA can provide enough feedback to raise the PDO a good bit. It will be interesting to see whether or not the current +PNA pattern will do just that between now and 10/1. This is what I posted elsewhere a few days back about weak Ninos following Ninas broken out by PDO: **I'm not addressing snowfall in this post. For snow, I'll leave it up to you to see what you got during these years if you're interested as I don't have this readily available.** The good news for cold chances is that we're almost definitely going to have a weak Nino peak this fall /winter and we already know it followed a Nina. Now, if I want the best shot at a very cold winter for the E US during a weak Nino that follows a Nina, I'd certainly hope for a +PDO for DJF (along with a -AO/-NAO, of course) as these charts illustrate well: +PDO weak Nino winters that followed a Nina (all three cold to very cold): -PDO weak Nino winters that followed a Nina (3 of 4 cool to cold; only 1951-2 warm..it had -PDO and +NAO) -PDO weak Nino winters that followed a Nina excluding 1951-2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0jZraYqOcMg/UFjp2K6__2I/AAAAAAAAKcs/2RIEA3Ezl_s/s1600/Dep_Sec_EQ_5d_jsd.gif Looking around at the winter weather forecast world I see maybe a problem building or down the road with our El Nino. Looking at our latest underwater anomalies from TAO/TRITON agency are showing cooler then normal ocean waters below the surface. Looks like our atmosphere is not liking of reacting to our El Nino. Waters are as cool as 2 degrees below normal and are somewhere around 150m-200m below the surface. Looks like the cool waters could be winning and why it looks like our El Nino is weakening. I am wondering just like the blogpost I read on, http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2012/09/cool-underwater-anomalies-threaten-el.html?m=1 Is our El Nino going bye, bye or we going into a Neutral state for winter 2012-2013??????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 http://1.bp.blogspot...c_EQ_5d_jsd.gif Looking around at the winter weather forecast world I see maybe a problem building or down the road with our El Nino. Looking at our latest underwater anomalies from TAO/TRITON agency are showing cooler then normal ocean waters below the surface. Looks like our atmosphere is not liking of reacting to our El Nino. Waters are as cool as 2 degrees below normal and are somewhere around 150m-200m below the surface. Looks like the cool waters could be winning and why it looks like our El Nino is weakening. I am wondering just like the blogpost I read on, http://theweathercen...ten-el.html?m=1 Is our El Nino going bye, bye or we going into a Neutral state for winter 2012-2013??????? neutral would be a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 zwyts, I hope we don't fall into a neutral state!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Neutral will of course will be worse especially the further south you are. If the NAO is negative it will still be ok although. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Time will only tell and by the end of October and early November we will have a better aspect/grasp on our winter 2012-2013. In the mean time to all the snowlovers out there, think positive!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 neutral would be a disaster I think a weak nino is still the more likely scenario but also wonder whether this raises the probability of the following winter dropping another nina on us. I sure hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Wes, I am glad to hear your input on our winter still probably being a weak-El Niño. Next winter La Nina is possible and I hate La Nina's except 95-96 winter. Seeing the cooler waters below are still something to watch. Thanks Wes!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Wes, I am glad to hear your input on our winter still probably being a weak-El Niño. Next winter La Nina is possible and I hate La Nina's except 95-96 winter. Seeing the cooler waters below are still something to watch. Thanks Wes!! I could very well be wrong. I'm not convinced a weak nino would be that great for us in terms of snow but it's way to early to make any kind of winter guess unless someone is willing to pay for one that has a high probability of not being very accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 I could very well be wrong. I'm not convinced a weak nino would be that great for us in terms of snow but it's way to early to make any kind of winter guess unless someone is willing to pay for one that has a high probability of not being very accurate. In case anyone wants to calc. the avg. snowfall for weak Ninos that have followed Ninas (I don't have the data): -PDO DJF: 1911-2, 1951-2, 1963-4, 1968-9 +PDO DJF: 1904-5, 1939-40, 1976-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 In regards to the recent dip in the 3.4 temps, note that the same exact thing happened in 2009 at nearly the same time. I'm not making any correlation other than to say that it's quite possible it's a blip and that temps go up over the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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