mattie g Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Biggest 3.4 anomaly to date http://www.cpc.ncep....s/wksst8110.for So where would you really like this thing to go over the next month or two...and where would you *not* like it to go, zwyts? I was looking at 2002 and 2009 3.4 summer anomalies (as a good weenie would), and each of them are similar to where we are now. Each had some peaks and valleys around now before heading steadily upward by mid-October. Makes me think that, with the potential Nina hangover, we really need this thing to not take a hit in October - if we do, then we're going to need a lot of luck to get a decently snowy winter. If it can keep from dropping too much in September and hold serve or increase through October and into November, perhaps we have a shot at getting into moderate Nino range. (The above is purely uninformed guesswork on my part) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 So where would you really like this thing to go over the next month or two...and where would you *not* like it to go, zwyts? I was looking at 2002 and 2009 3.4 summer anomalies (as a good weenie would), and each of them are similar to where we are now. Each had some peaks and valleys around now before heading steadily upward by mid-October. Makes me think that, with the potential Nina hangover, we really need this thing to not take a hit in October - if we do, then we're going to need a lot of luck to get a decently snowy winter. If it can keep from dropping too much in September and hold serve or increase through October and into November, perhaps we have a shot at getting into moderate Nino range. (The above is purely uninformed guesswork on my part) as high as possible...skyrocket... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 as high as possible...skyrocket... We need the 2.4 anomaly to be at least above 1 degree and right now that is looking less and less likely though there have been a few decent winters with a weak nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 I thought readers might find this interesting. I'm not sure how the author broke down el Nino's and am not sure each category has enough members to be statistically signfificant (in fact they don't) but the weak ninos tend not to be big precip or snow years here even though they average below normal temp wise. The latest CFS2 model run has dec and Jan above normal temp wise with Dec being the warmest and Feb being near normal though a weak or so ago it was showing below normal temps for the same time period in Feb. The CFS2 model also has above normal precip in Jan. The CFS2 temps don't look very nino-like for what it is worth. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/research/dcbalt_elnino/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Dr. Judah Cohen has written many great papers on the topic. To be more specific though, it is Siberia (northern Eurasia) during October that matters the most. Dr. Cohen has shown a significant statistical relationship between the advance of snowcover in Eurasia during October to the predominant phase of the Northern Annular Mode (NAO/AO) during the following winter. Essentially, start out with little snowcover in late September/early October and expand it rapidly throughout the month. If this occurs, then expect lots of blocking and negative AO/NAO periods the following winter. October is key because there is still enough sunshine that snowcover will effectively alter the albedo of the Earth over the large continental landmass of northern Eurasia (snowcover 50 to 70 degrees north is ideal). The dynamics behind the relationship are still poorly understood. The general theory is that the snowcover induces an anomalous upward radiative flux that propogates to the upper troposphere/stratosphere and goes poleward as a Rossby wave train. When this occurs in October, it can reinforce the pre-existing climatological stationary wave and force a negative NAM during winter. Thank you for the info and explanation; i'll google Dr. Cohen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 I thought readers might find this interesting. I'm not sure how the author broke down el Nino's and am not sure each category has enough members to be statistically signfificant (in fact they don't) but the weak ninos tend not to be big precip or snow years here even though they average below normal temp wise. The latest CFS2 model run has dec and Jan above normal temp wise with Dec being the warmest and Feb being near normal though a weak or so ago it was showing below normal temps for the same time period in Feb. The CFS2 model also has above normal precip in Jan. The CFS2 temps don't look very nino-like for what it is worth. http://www.erh.noaa..../dcbalt_elnino/ Shows 15-20" at DCA during a weak nino....I could live with that as long as we don't have 70-80 degree temps in early January like we did in 06-07...simply just kills the winter mood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 We need the 2.4 anomaly to be at least above 1 degree and right now that is looking less and less likely though there have been a few decent winters with a weak nino. I think you may have a similar graphic....But these are the weak ninos and they are ranked from warmest to coldest...following is average PDO, average NAO and snow..I just felt like crunching numbers...there isn't much value in a small sample of index numbers...But we do glean something....especially for a long term outlook... PDO seems to be most important for temps though NAO important as well.... Snow isn't great in any sample...near the median...Using just these indices, I think in a strongly -PDO regime like we are in, it would make sense to go slightly warm and near median snow in a weak nino...Of course there are many other factors to consider 51 40.9 -1.38 +0.47 10.2 52 40.7 -0.20 -0.20 8.3 53 40.1 -0.95 +0.21 18.0 Warm Group - PDO: -0.84, NAO: +0.48, Snow: 12.2" 04 38.6 +0.36 +0.89 12.5 06 38.6 +0.06 +0.36 9.5 Average Group - PDO: +0.21, NAO: +0.63, Snow: 11.0" 58 35.6 +0.28 -0.30 4.9 69 34.5 +0.81 -0.38 14.0 77 34 +0.27 -0.85 22.7 76 33.2 +1.33 -1.04 11.1 Cold Group - PDO: +0.67, NAO: -0.64, Snow: 13.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Shows 15-20" at DCA during a weak nino....I could live with that as long as we don't have 70-80 degree temps in early January like we did in 06-07...simply just kills the winter mood I think their average is on the high side as I also put together a table of El NIno year. Of the 9 years with a anomaly of 1C or less, 6 or the 9 were below normal years though only two were resulted in less than 10" of snow. The average was13.7. The highest year was 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 I think you may have a similar graphic....But these are the weak ninos and they are ranked from warmest to coldest...following is average PDO, average NAO and snow..I just felt like crunching numbers...there isn't much value in a small sample of index numbers...But we do glean something....especially for a long term outlook... PDO seems to be most important for temps though NAO important as well.... Snow isn't great in any sample...near the median...Using just these indices, I think in a strongly -PDO regime like we are in, it would make sense to go slightly warm and near median snow in a weak nino...Of course there are many other factors to consider 51 40.9 -1.38 +0.47 10.2 52 40.7 -0.20 -0.20 8.3 53 40.1 -0.95 +0.21 18.0 Warm Group - PDO: -0.84, NAO: +0.48, Snow: 12.2" 04 38.6 +0.36 +0.89 12.5 06 38.6 +0.06 +0.36 9.5 Average Group - PDO: +0.21, NAO: +0.63, Snow: 11.0" 58 35.6 +0.28 -0.30 4.9 69 34.5 +0.81 -0.38 14.0 77 34 +0.27 -0.85 22.7 76 33.2 +1.33 -1.04 11.1 Cold Group - PDO: +0.67, NAO: -0.64, Snow: 13.2" It's too bad we don't have similar numbers for the old fashioned EPO as I think it might be telling. Right now I'd probably lean towards the median for snowfall, somewhere in the 10 to 14 inch range as being the most likely range but it still is way to early to make any real call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 We need the 2.4 anomaly to be at least above 1 degree and right now that is looking less and less likely though there have been a few decent winters with a weak nino. Wes...as of 29 Aug, 3.4 was at 0.9. Are you thinking Nino takes a hit or just stays stagnant, or is there some forecast that says that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Wes...as of 29 Aug, 3.4 was at 0.9. Are you thinking Nino takes a hit or just stays stagnant, or is there some forecast that says that? Quite a few of the modelling centers have it becoming almost neutral by winter (POMA, CFS2), the Euro also has it weakening but does get it into the weak moderate range for its ensemble mean. The Japanaese model has it quite strong so my thinking could be wrong. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 I think their average is on the high side as I also put together a table of El NIno year. Of the 9 years with a anomaly of 1C or less, 6 or the 9 were below normal years though only two were resulted in less than 10" of snow. The average was13.7. The highest year was 25. On thing that could bump seasonal this year is a single bigger event. There seems to be a trend toward higher occurances of significant winter events in the east the last 10 years. Weak Ninos definitely don't favor big storms but there is no reason to ignore the possibility in any neutral to warm ENSO winter. Maybe we have some luck on our side this year....maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Quite a few of the modelling centers have it becoming almost neutral by winter (POMA, CFS2), the Euro also has it weakening but does get it into the weak moderate range for its ensemble mean. The Japanaese model has it quite strong so my thinking could be wrong. http://www.bom.gov.a...O-summary.shtml Interesting - thanks. Based on the expectation that Nino may wane come mid-winter, zwytz's post about wanting to skyrocket would make perfect sense. Gotta have some buffer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Fear not.. Justin has FAITHINTHEFLAKES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Fear not.. Justin has FAITHINTHEFLAKES LOL, I saw that too, and was he being serious meaning they put that arrow there and it means just for central md? He does know it is for the region in the light shaded color. what a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 LOL, I saw that too, and was he being serious meaning they put that arrow there and it means just for central md? He does know it is for the region in the light shaded color. what a Screenname? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Screenname? I think Capitalweather was trolling him on Twitter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 I think Capitalweather was trolling him on Twitter too. https://twitter.com/...808920919998464 Nice work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 https://www.facebook...&type=1 I think Capitalweather was trolling him on Twitter too. https://twitter.com/...808920919998464 Now I get it. His DC average must be for IAD, it's certainly not for DCA and the lower elevations in the City. Sounds like the Channel 4 guy is also looking for more snow than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Quite a few of the modelling centers have it becoming almost neutral by winter (POMA, CFS2), the Euro also has it weakening but does get it into the weak moderate range for its ensemble mean. The Japanaese model has it quite strong so my thinking could be wrong. http://www.bom.gov.a...O-summary.shtml Funny you should mention that. I compiled all the indices for the four ENSO regions just to see what years were similar to this year in terms of progression. I took the 10 years for each month (january to july - haven't put August in yet) that were most similar to 2012 for each of the regions. While 2009 popped up the most out of the Nino years, the year that was most like this one was 2001. Even more intriguing is that a lot of the other indices for 2012 such as PDO, QBO and solar flux are very much like 2001 not to mention that year was coming on the heels of three nina years and is the only example since 1950 of a neutral winter after multi-year ninas. Needless to say, the result was not what was expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Bumping this...any new thoughts over the past few days? The news I've been hearing has been less than optimistic for the Mid-Atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Bumping this...any new thoughts over the past few days? The news I've been hearing has been less than optimistic for the Mid-Atl. Brett Anderson thinks mostly +NAO this winter: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/new-clues-about-the-upcoming-winter/72402 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Brett Anderson thinks mostly +NAO this winter: http://www.accuweath...ng-winter/72402 Those aren't really his thoughts... it's just discussing what the latest Euro monthlies are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Those aren't really his thoughts... it's just discussing what the latest Euro monthlies are showing. Plus his two maps really don't jive especially across the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England. The bottom one shows cooler than normal while the top one shows warmer. The CFS2 looks pretty nasty for much of the country until Feb. It's not that good but it sounds like for us, the euro isn't either. That said, I'll wait until October is over before making a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Plus his two maps really don't jive especially across the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England. The bottom one shows cooler than normal while the top one shows warmer. The CFS2 looks pretty nasty for much of the country until Feb. It's not that good but it sounds like for us, the euro isn't either. That said, I'll wait until October is over before making a guess. That's what everyone should do If only the clients could wait for so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Nino holding steady http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 These models have a hard time a week out let alone several months....lol! The nao is the hardest to predict and for anyone to attempt it now is to say the least not wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 I stumbled across this link a couple weeks back. Is it updated monthly? I love the concise model data. http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 I stumbled across this link a couple weeks back. Is it updated monthly? I love the concise model data. http://iri.columbia..../SST_table.html yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Does anybody have that scatterplot graph of all the KU storms on a +AO to -AO and ElNino to La Nina x+y axis? I know wes presented it at the conference and I believe I saw it in a CWG article. I can't seem to find it anywhere... Thanks in advance! You mean this? http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_606w/WashingtonPost/Content/Blogs/capital-weather-gang/201112/images/lanina-nao-snow.jpg?uuid=8yU1sCdREeG6UZmisn9jBQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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