CFS Long Range (as in Winter)

[aldie 22]

My personal feelings are that i would take less snow as long as it was cold and the snow that falls hangs around longer...I enjoy watching snow fall but I also enjoy seeing it on the ground...I know that I am in the minority on that though. Honestly in February 06 when we got that big storm that dumped 12" here it was exciting tracking it and watching it fall but it was incredibly miserable to be out there shoveling and the snow melt faster than I could shovel.

I know 76-77 did not get much snow but it was absolutely frigid and what fell was around for a long time...I remember ice patches that were there everyday that me and my buddies would play on...give me that!!

[mattie g]

Disagreed. I'm not sure it's even possible for any cold winter to be as void of any snow as 11-12.

If we got the same amount of snow as last season, but it was cold instead of warm...that's what I was getting at.

[Bob Chill]

Just a wag but I'm pretty confident in a good stretch of aob normal temps and opportunity. Prob gonna be a slow start in Dec but there is enough history to expect a 4-6 week stretch of good winter weather. At least from a temp standpoint. Stormtracks will determine whether we get snow or not of course.

[nw baltimore wx]

My personal feelings are that i would take less snow as long as it was cold and the snow that falls hangs around longer...I enjoy watching snow fall but I also enjoy seeing it on the ground...I know that I am in the minority on that though. Honestly in February 06 when we got that big storm that dumped 12" here it was exciting tracking it and watching it fall but it was incredibly miserable to be out there shoveling and the snow melt faster than I could shovel.

I know 76-77 did not get much snow but it was absolutely frigid and what fell was around for a long time...I remember ice patches that were there everyday that me and my buddies would play on...give me that!!

I never get tired of these.

[EastCoast NPZ]

My personal feelings are that i would take less snow as long as it was cold and the snow that falls hangs around longer...I enjoy watching snow fall but I also enjoy seeing it on the ground...I know that I am in the minority on that though. Honestly in February 06 when we got that big storm that dumped 12" here it was exciting tracking it and watching it fall but it was incredibly miserable to be out there shoveling and the snow melt faster than I could shovel.

I know 76-77 did not get much snow but it was absolutely frigid and what fell was around for a long time...I remember ice patches that were there everyday that me and my buddies would play on...give me that!!

Agreed. I gladly take a 8-inch snow that stayed on the ground for a couple weeks than 2 ft that melted in several days. Unfortunately, in these parts it's not even enough that it's cold; it's got to be cloudy also. Stupid sun.

[ThePhotoGuy]

I never get tired of these.

I would love to see this happen again...

[VAsnowlvr82]

The only thing that could make this winter worse than last is if we were to be cold and dry rather than warm and dry.

Cold and dry>warm and dry

Please just let it be cold if no snow. Its mild to hot for 9 months of the year I mean I dont think im asking for much.

[mitchnick]

I never get tired of these.

great pics

I had a chance to walk on the Bay that January at Sandy Point State Park

what those pics don't show is how the ice was very uneven and in frozen blocks/chunks near the shoreline; you had to be real careful the first 30-50', then it got flat like in those pics

unfortunately, winter ended that year after about the first week in FEB; it warmed rapidly once the pattern broke....little did I know, however, was that we had two decent winters to follow

[WinterWxLuvr]

great pics

I had a chance to walk on the Bay that January at Sandy Point State Park

what those pics don't show is how the ice was very uneven and in frozen blocks/chunks near the shoreline; you had to be real careful the first 30-50', then it got flat like in those pics

unfortunately, winter ended that year after about the first week in FEB; it warmed rapidly once the pattern broke....little did I know, however, was that we had two decent winters to follow

That winter in swva was literally a 4-6 snow about every 3rd or 4th day.

Two things I never forget about that winter. Snow rollers which I've never seen since and a cold front that dropped temps from 50 to 8 in two hours.

[ravensrule]

Rob Guarino updated his expert forecast again:

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179

[ravensrule]

Here is his Baltimore/Washington prediction:

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=3&topicid=5731&Itemid=179

[Ellinwood]

Rob Guarino updated his expert forecast again:

http://www.liveweath...1122&Itemid=179

So many effin graphics, along with... interesting-looking maps. Normal temps and above normal snowfall is an interesting combo for our region, especially considering he went with slightly below normal snowfall in the Northeast.

[MDstorm]

So many effin graphics, along with... interesting-looking maps. Normal temps and above normal snowfall is an interesting combo for our region, especially considering he went with slightly below normal snowfall in the Northeast.

He nailed 2009-10.

MDstorm

[Ellinwood]

So many effin graphics, along with... interesting-looking maps. Normal temps and above normal snowfall is an interesting combo for our region, especially considering he went with slightly below normal snowfall in the Northeast.

Had some time to actually read all the way through the forecast... despite him conveying the importance of the NAO/AO to the forecast, he seems to arbitrarily assign them to be slightly negative overall for the winter without providing much evidence of why. He discusses sun spots, Arctic Sea ice, the PDO and the stratosphere a bit, but he doesn't really connect any of those back to his forecast. He mentions the 70mb level being abnormally cool, which would lead to a colder, snowier winter (I don't have knowledge of the 70mb relationship for LR forecasting so I can't verify if it's a true link or not). That and the weak/mod Nino are really the only things he connects to his forecast specifically... he discusses some of the anomalies for the PDO but doesn't go into what he expects it to do this winter.

[aldie 22]

Lets have another winter like this one day shall we!

Winter 09-10 total 86.2 - 90.7"

Days with snow on the ground a lot

Max snow depth 42" current as of 2/10

December 5th 8am - rain changed to snow

December 5th - 4"....Official NWS measurement 3" as of 7pm last night

December 8th - Snow/sleet big fat mambo flakes - 1/4 inch of slush

December 18th - Orgasmic kick ass mofo storm 09 begins around 9pm.

December 18th-19th 24"best snowstorm since my move to Leesburg. Total for the year already passed my seasonal average.

December 31st - 1.25" snow that was supposed to be rain....another over performer. Perhaps more tonight.

January 3rd - morning low temp was 12.3 with howling winds. Chilly

January 7th-8th - Clipper snow 1.5"

January 21-22 snow/sleet/rain/freezing rain. will call it .2 since Dave said that's what it was

January 30th - Fringed on models all week until the day before then the North trend started. Snow started at 9am and went on past 8pm. 5.5"

February 2nd - the most gorgeous fat flakes sticking to everything Thomas Kinkade scene snow. 6.5" official NWS report... to put us over 40" for the season.

February 5th - 9:35 first flurries for perhaps the largest snowstorm of my lifetime.

February 5th-6th 30-34.5" nuff said totals are range from various spotters in Leesburg

February 9th-10th Another fringe forecast that ends up working out 12.5" with blizzard like conditions.

February 15th - clipper fail - 0.5

[EastCoast NPZ]

That winter in swva was literally a 4-6 snow about every 3rd or 4th day.

Two things I never forget about that winter. Snow rollers which I've never seen since and a cold front that dropped temps from 50 to 8 in two hours.

Snow rollers as in the hand-held shovel-type, or something different? I've never heard of these until I saw your post. Went searching on the internet and found the hand-held types. Wonder why I've never seen these in the hardware stores. Pretty cool.

http://www.impulzivedesign.com/portfolioart/websites/snowroller/index.html

[ravensrule]

He nailed 2009-10.

MDstorm

That is why people started following him but he has been bad the last 2 winters. Most of the pro mets on here don't seem to think much of him. He does have a very detailed discussion though.

[Avdave]

Lets have another winter like this one day shall we!

Winter 09-10 total 86.2 - 90.7"

Days with snow on the ground a lot

Max snow depth 42" current as of 2/10

December 5th 8am - rain changed to snow

December 5th - 4"....Official NWS measurement 3" as of 7pm last night

December 8th - Snow/sleet big fat mambo flakes - 1/4 inch of slush

December 18th - Orgasmic kick ass mofo storm 09 begins around 9pm.

December 18th-19th 24"best snowstorm since my move to Leesburg. Total for the year already passed my seasonal average.

December 31st - 1.25" snow that was supposed to be rain....another over performer. Perhaps more tonight.

January 3rd - morning low temp was 12.3 with howling winds. Chilly

January 7th-8th - Clipper snow 1.5"

January 21-22 snow/sleet/rain/freezing rain. will call it .2 since Dave said that's what it was

January 30th - Fringed on models all week until the day before then the North trend started. Snow started at 9am and went on past 8pm. 5.5"

February 2nd - the most gorgeous fat flakes sticking to everything Thomas Kinkade scene snow. 6.5" official NWS report... to put us over 40" for the season.

February 5th - 9:35 first flurries for perhaps the largest snowstorm of my lifetime.

February 5th-6th 30-34.5" nuff said totals are range from various spotters in Leesburg

February 9th-10th Another fringe forecast that ends up working out 12.5" with blizzard like conditions.

February 15th - clipper fail - 0.5

We wouldve done anything for that last year in the winter season

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Careful, Bob. I think a lot of people were saying the same thing in 2011.

I know that's probably a snark comment (which I can appreciate!), but...

I think saying a "100%"*** chance of it being better than last winter is a pretty good bet. As I've said before, it would be hard to undercut how awful it was both in terms of warmth and lack of snow. We had so much going against anything last year, almost literally nothing to even consider following. And I thought it would be tough to outdo 2001-02!!

2010-11 was a let down of course after the blockbuster winter the year before, but it wasn't terrible. We had chances, there was cold (including a cold December), and storms to follow. In fact, I'd argue if we had shared in on the Boxing Day storm in December, most here would have considered it a not half-bad winter...in combination with the convective snow burst in late January. Kind of like 2006-07. That year was back-loaded from late January through March, including the extremely cold February. If we had gotten the Valentine's Day storm, again, probably most people would consider it a successful winter and "up there" on the list of good ones.

***at least, I'd like to think at least pretty darned close to 100%!

[Bob Chill]

Most recent tri-monthly came neutral @ 0.0. The rate of warming is very much in line with 86-87 and 06-07. Looking back through limited data it seems that region 3.4 surpassing 1.5 trimonthly is going to be pretty tough this winter and not likely at all. As others have said, 1.0 - 1.2 looks like the most likely scenario.

Not a kiss of death or anything but definitely not looking anything like a classic nino setup. I've read a lot of Don S posts about autumn NH snowcover and the winter state of the AO/NAO. One of the early signals I'll be keeping an eye on is autumn snowcover. If it builds early and has a nice + anomaly then I'll ratchet up my optimism a bit.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Most recent tri-monthly came neutral @ 0.0. The rate of warming is very much in line with 86-87 and 06-07. Looking back through limited data it seems that region 3.4 surpassing 1.5 trimonthly is going to be pretty tough this winter and not likely at all. As others have said, 1.0 - 1.2 looks like the most likely scenario.

Not a kiss of death or anything but definitely not looking anything like a classic nino setup. I've read a lot of Don S posts about autumn NH snowcover and the winter state of the AO/NAO. One of the early signals I'll be keeping an eye on is autumn snowcover. If it builds early and has a nice + anomaly then I'll ratchet up my optimism a bit.

Forgive me if it's been discussed elsewhere on this board before, but could someone explain the correlation between NH snow cover and the AO/NAO?

[Bob Chill]

Forgive me if it's been discussed elsewhere on this board before, but could someone explain the correlation between NH snow cover and the AO/NAO?

The simple version is when snowcover builds early and exceeds climo coverage it favors blocking in winter for NA. It also favors arctic air intrusions into the northern plains (I might be wrong with this statement but I'm pretty sure my memory is right). There is a difference between siberian snowcover and canadian snowcover. We want both.

Just visit the main forum later this month. The annual thread will pop up and loads of discussion follows.

[Deck Pic]

Biggest 3.4 anomaly to date

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

[EastCoast NPZ]

The simple version is when snowcover builds early and exceeds climo coverage it favors blocking in winter for NA. It also favors arctic air intrusions into the northern plains (I might be wrong with this statement but I'm pretty sure my memory is right). There is a difference between siberian snowcover and canadian snowcover. We want both.

Just visit the main forum later this month. The annual thread will pop up and loads of discussion follows.

Thanks, Bob. I'm trying to conceptually understand why snow cover in the higher lattitudes could cause blocking. In a blocking pattern the air temps are AN around the poles and high-lattitudes, correct? Wouldn't snow cover cause the air over these areas to grow colder? I wonder what starts the process of getting that air moving southward, and what causes the higher pressure anomolies over the greenland area in the first place?

Will keep an eye out for that thread; I've never really ventured outside this subforum.

[GaWx]

Biggest 3.4 anomaly to date

http://www.cpc.ncep....s/wksst8110.for

I'm looking for a +0.7 to +1.0 trimonthly 3.4 anomaly (ONI) (weak El Nino) fall/winter peak. Based on the past, weeklies can peak as high as ~+1.4 and still allow for a trimonthly peak of +1.0 or lower. Second most likely would be +1.1 to +1.2 .

[griteater]

The new JJA trimonthly is in at +0.1....but here is something that I don't follow - if you average the weekly 3.4 anom values for JJA, it yields a JJA of +0.5 (http://www.cpc.ncep....s/wksst8110.for). According to the tri-monthly page (http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml), it looks like the tri-monthlies are computed based on ERSST.v3b SST Anomalies, but that link above to the weekly values is based on OISST.v2 SST Anomalies....and if you compare the ERSST and OISST monthly values (ERSST Monthly - http://www.cpc.ncep....mth.81-10.ascii, OISST Monthly - http://www.cpc.ncep....s/sstoi.indices), the OISST values are coming in much warmer...and there is no link that I know of to the ERSST weekly values.

[griteater]

There seems to be a disconnect to me with the way NOAA is reporting the SST Anom values in that they are basing their weekly reported values on OISST.v2....but their tri-monthlies are being computed based on ERSST.v3b values, which are cooler.

[GaWx]

There seems to be a disconnect to me with the way NOAA is reporting the SST Anom values in that they are basing their weekly reported values on OISST.v2....but their tri-monthlies are being computed based on ERSST.v3b values, which are cooler.

Wow, as much as I follow ENSO, I just noticed this when you mentioned it. Thanks for pointing this out. I've never seem them nearly this out of synch with the weeklies. I've seen them usually be pretty close if not just about the same...i.e., within ~0.1 C most times. They look in synch through AMJ. However, MJJ and JJA look very strange, indeed. Someone needs to talk to them.

[cfbaggett]

Thanks, Bob. I'm trying to conceptually understand why snow cover in the higher lattitudes could cause blocking. In a blocking pattern the air temps are AN around the poles and high-lattitudes, correct? Wouldn't snow cover cause the air over these areas to grow colder? I wonder what starts the process of getting that air moving southward, and what causes the higher pressure anomolies over the greenland area in the first place?

Will keep an eye out for that thread; I've never really ventured outside this subforum.

Dr. Judah Cohen has written many great papers on the topic. To be more specific though, it is Siberia (northern Eurasia) during October that matters the most. Dr. Cohen has shown a significant statistical relationship between the advance of snowcover in Eurasia during October to the predominant phase of the Northern Annular Mode (NAO/AO) during the following winter. Essentially, start out with little snowcover in late September/early October and expand it rapidly throughout the month. If this occurs, then expect lots of blocking and negative AO/NAO periods the following winter. October is key because there is still enough sunshine that snowcover will effectively alter the albedo of the Earth over the large continental landmass of northern Eurasia (snowcover 50 to 70 degrees north is ideal).

The dynamics behind the relationship are still poorly understood. The general theory is that the snowcover induces an anomalous upward radiative flux that propogates to the upper troposphere/stratosphere and goes poleward as a Rossby wave train. When this occurs in October, it can reinforce the pre-existing climatological stationary wave and force a negative NAM during winter.

[wxmeddler]

Does anybody have that scatterplot graph of all the KU storms on a +AO to -AO and ElNino to La Nina x+y axis? I know wes presented it at the conference and I believe I saw it in a CWG article. I can't seem to find it anywhere... Thanks in advance!