Deck Pic Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Seems like the argument for a cooler back half of winter is gaining some love...I guess the weak Nino may doom us with dry??? we probably won't see a below normal month until January or February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 we probably won't see a below normal month until January or February That's the feel I get which Is why I mentioned back half of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Seems like the argument for a cooler back half of winter is gaining some love...I guess the weak Nino may doom us with dry??? We don't do a lot of cold/dry around here. Hope for the cold, and the snow will likely follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 29, 2012 Author Share Posted August 29, 2012 I'm hating the CFS2 precip forecasts of late extremely dry centered right over DCA/BWI always sumtin' around here when hoping for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I'm hating the CFS2 precip forecasts of late extremely dry centered right over DCA/BWI always sumtin' around here when hoping for snow The models are always right 6 months out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I'm hating the CFS2 precip forecasts of late extremely dry centered right over DCA/BWI always sumtin' around here when hoping for snow I always like to put our winter precip in perspective. We average over 14" of precip from Dec-Mar. Only 2" of that needs to be snow to hit climo just about everywhere. Only 14% or less of our climo winter precip is snow on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 29, 2012 Author Share Posted August 29, 2012 The models are always right 6 months out in time. I wouldn't have posted about it except weak NINOs around here are NOT known for their precip, though they are traditionally colder than average and considering many of the LR Enso models are weakening the NINO from forecasts a few months ago, it's a reasonable concern and if we can't discuss what LR models are currently depicting around here because they'll change, why even have them?....or maybe the mods should just delete threads/posts concerning them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 What's more risky....getting cold and waiting for the precip or getting wet waiting for the cold....I prefer to get the cold first and take my chances.....assuming the cold is sustaining and the storm track doesn't go West when it does get wet....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I always like to put our winter precip in perspective. We average over 14" of precip from Dec-Mar. Only 2" of that needs to be snow to hit climo just about everywhere. Only 14% or less of our climo winter precip is snow on average. Depressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 What's more risky....getting cold and waiting for the precip or getting wet waiting for the cold....I prefer to get the cold first and take my chances.....assuming the cold is sustaining and the storm track doesn't go West when it does get wet....lol Cold dry and warm wet is always a risk around here. All things equal I will take the cold and hope for moisture. At least that feels more seasonal and what falls will hang around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Cold dry and warm wet is always a risk around here. All things equal I will take the cold and hope for moisture. At least that feels more seasonal and what falls will hang around. What's funny is that I think normal in January isn't cold enough for snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 My loins are starting to tingle. Don't go there....sounds like one political commentator we all know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I kind of like these storm tracks for DEC-Mid January...very quick and dirty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I wouldn't have posted about it except weak NINOs around here are NOT known for their precip, though they are traditionally colder than average and considering many of the LR Enso models are weakening the NINO from forecasts a few months ago, it's a reasonable concern and if we can't discuss what LR models are currently depicting around here because they'll change, why even have them?....or maybe the mods should just delete threads/posts concerning them? It is likely to change multiple times between now and then, so no need to fret over the models... just fret over the climo. LR models are a tool... they are not meant to be read verbatim, ESPECIALLY the CFS/CFS2 (I would at least take the ECM output over that, if anything). I do wish the mods would delete some of the crap in these threads, but simply making a bad post isn't usually a good enough reason for the mods to delete it, especially considering the current status of the thread/forum (off-season topic and kind of quiet in the Mid-Atlantic). In the end, it's still August, so why worry about it now? Worry about snow when it's time to worry about it... in winter. I don't know why you would have any need to be concerned over all of the changes the LR models are showing at this time. You've got ENSO, PDO, AMO, QBO, etc. correlations that, when put together and supplemented with analog years, will give you a much better idea of what is most likely compared to some ever-changing model output. You should rely much more on the thoughts of the vetted LR forecasters (mets and non-mets alike) than changes in the LR model output at this range. LR forecasters' thoughts on this upcoming winter have been fairly well hashed-out within the forum, and that's basically all you really need until we get close to winter. There's no need to keep going back to the models to check their winter updates when we're this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I kind of like these storm tracks for DEC-Mid January...very quick and dirty I like 2 of the 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I like 2 of the 3. lol Regarding those specific tracks, I think a New Englander's use of "like" is different than Matt's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I like 2 of the 3. Those are pretty good for you even though they might imply some mix and rain to snow events.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 It is likely to change multiple times between now and then, so no need to fret over the models... just fret over the climo. LR models are a tool... they are not meant to be read verbatim, ESPECIALLY the CFS/CFS2 (I would at least take the ECM output over that, if anything). I do wish the mods would delete some of the crap in these threads, but simply making a bad post isn't usually a good enough reason for the mods to delete it, especially considering the current status of the thread/forum (off-season topic and kind of quiet in the Mid-Atlantic). In the end, it's still August, so why worry about it now? Worry about snow when it's time to worry about it... in winter. I don't know why you would have any need to be concerned over all of the changes the LR models are showing at this time. You've got ENSO, PDO, AMO, QBO, etc. correlations that, when put together and supplemented with analog years, will give you a much better idea of what is most likely compared to some ever-changing model output. You should rely much more on the thoughts of the vetted LR forecasters (mets and non-mets alike) than changes in the LR model output at this range. LR forecasters' thoughts on this upcoming winter have been fairly well hashed-out within the forum, and that's basically all you really need until we get close to winter. There's no need to keep going back to the models to check their winter updates when we're this far out. The mods should delete your post since it is kind of pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 30, 2012 Author Share Posted August 30, 2012 It is likely to change multiple times between now and then, so no need to fret over the models... just fret over the climo. LR models are a tool... they are not meant to be read verbatim, ESPECIALLY the CFS/CFS2 (I would at least take the ECM output over that, if anything). I do wish the mods would delete some of the crap in these threads, but simply making a bad post isn't usually a good enough reason for the mods to delete it, especially considering the current status of the thread/forum (off-season topic and kind of quiet in the Mid-Atlantic). In the end, it's still August, so why worry about it now? Worry about snow when it's time to worry about it... in winter. I don't know why you would have any need to be concerned over all of the changes the LR models are showing at this time. You've got ENSO, PDO, AMO, QBO, etc. correlations that, when put together and supplemented with analog years, will give you a much better idea of what is most likely compared to some ever-changing model output. You should rely much more on the thoughts of the vetted LR forecasters (mets and non-mets alike) than changes in the LR model output at this range. LR forecasters' thoughts on this upcoming winter have been fairly well hashed-out within the forum, and that's basically all you really need until we get close to winter. There's no need to keep going back to the models to check their winter updates when we're this far out. because it is a free country, although "barely", I'll talk and fret about LR winter models all I want regardless of the date thank you it's like you keep forgetting this is not a Board exclusively for mets or people interested in changing careers to become one what you may have not considered is that since the LR models obviously consider all those indices in their physics I, who really doesn't care about the minutia or I would have had a career in meteo, can pull up a LR model map. weigh it against climo and discuss what it says; and in light of LR forecasts put out by people in the past using the correlation method, my method is no less accurate this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 We've had a big run of -NAO in June/July. August will go down as neg too. Probably get some rocks thrown at me for this but every June since 1950 that had a -nao below -1.5 had a + NAO in Dec/Jan. It's not a long list (51,71,82,87,98) and probably doesn't mean squat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 I kind of like these storm tracks for DEC-Mid January...very quick and dirty Lol....I know those are climo for a weak nino in the early season but man....there aren't any storm tracks that get much uglier than that for our area....yeesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Lol....I know those are climo for a weak nino in the early season but man....there aren't any storm tracks that get much uglier than that for our area....yeesh. Well, I'm not trying to bash zwyts by any stretch of the imagination, but from what I've observed so far from the other mets on these forums, he is by far, one of the most pessimistic about the upcoming winter. The others aren't overly excited about this Winter, but quite a bit more optimistic, we'll say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Well, I'm not trying to bash zwyts by any stretch of the imagination, but from what I've observed so far from the other mets on these forums, he is by far, one of the most pessimistic about the upcoming winter. The others aren't overly excited about this Winter, but quite a bit more optimistic, we'll say. Careful....a lot of those mets are from up North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Well, I'm not trying to bash zwyts by any stretch of the imagination, but from what I've observed so far from the other mets on these forums, he is by far, one of the most pessimistic about the upcoming winter. The others aren't overly excited about this Winter, but quite a bit more optimistic, we'll say. I don't think zwts is being pessimistic at all. He's accurately reporting a likely outcome based on the early signals. There's plenty up in the air this winter and I don't think anybody is calling for a bustola. We'll get some cold and snow. 100% sure it will be better than last year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Zwyts is being pretty bullish considering most winters in this area aren't very good. He could forecast 5-10 inches with long warm stretches every season for DC and have a good track record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Zwyts is being pretty bullish considering most winters in this area aren't very good. He could forecast 5-10 inches with long warm stretches every season for DC and have a good track record. It's posts like these that make me wish for a like button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 I don't think zwts is being pessimistic at all. He's accurately reporting a likely outcome based on the early signals. There's plenty up in the air this winter and I don't think anybody is calling for a bustola. We'll get some cold and snow. 100% sure it will be better than last year... Careful, Bob. I think a lot of people were saying the same thing in 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Again, it's just my opinion, of which we are all entitled to. Like I have said multiple times before, personally, I'm not expecting a blockbuster of any sort. But I do expect it to be a vast improvement from last Winter's train wreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Careful, Bob. I think a lot of people were saying the same thing in 2011. The only thing that could make this winter worse than last is if we were to be cold and dry rather than warm and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Careful, Bob. I think a lot of people were saying the same thing in 2011. lol The only thing that could make this winter worse than last is if we were to be cold and dry rather than warm and dry. Disagreed. I'm not sure it's even possible for any cold winter to be as void of any snow as 11-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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