CFS Long Range (as in Winter)

[Ji]

Ji likes to make wild statements regarding forecasts based on semi-out-of-context phrases/sentences.

This is what he said

Yeah I am starting to think that this year goes into that camp; and if the case, would mean that Jan-Mar is probably going to be very chilly in the East.

[HM]

This is what he said

Yeah I am starting to think that this year goes into that camp; and if the case, would mean that Jan-Mar is probably going to be very chilly in the East.

Yes if we transition into a weak El Nino-west based system (looking promising), then a cool mid to late winter is the more likely scenario for the East. It may not be the snowiest outcome, as Matt and several others pointed out, for our region but it could be further northeast into southern New England and NYC.

[mappy]

Every preliminary winter 2012-2013 forecast out on You Tube is calling for a cold and snowy winter for us. Defiantly makes you wonder!!!! I really like seeing this +AMO and helping us with I hope some good blocking this winter. I still feel that Irene and the early Nor"Easter had some correlation with the horrible blocking last year!!! Keep Isaac away! Lol.

I defiantly wonder all the time

[HM]

in fact, 11-12, 23-24, 63-64, 02-03 might be my favorite analogs now...

Most of these had a pretty solid +PDO system in tandem with the El Nino but I can see similarities to the pattern this summer. There are other early years that are showing up, too, but they may not necessarily be analogs yet. Years like 1919-20, 1930-31, e.g. are somewhat okay and even 1913-14 (cold solar minimum El Nino winter) shows similar summer behavior.

My concern is we end up with a 1979-80 or a 1958-59 type of year.

[Deck Pic]

Most of these had a pretty solid +PDO system in tandem with the El Nino but I can see similarities to the pattern this summer. There are other early years that are showing up, too, but they may not necessarily be analogs yet. Years like 1919-20, 1930-31, e.g. are somewhat okay and even 1913-14 (cold solar minimum El Nino winter) shows similar summer behavior.

My concern is we end up with a 1979-80 or a 1958-59 type of year.

yes...so much still to be considered

As far as PDO, part of the reason I liked 63-64 and 11-12 in addition to other factors was they were in somewhat of a -PDO or more neutral period/regime (63-64 was smack dab in the middle of a -PDO decadal regime) and overall DJF they were negative...23-24 is more questionable re: PDO and of course 2002-03 is probably a pretty bad PDO analog if we are isolating for that

I don't like 58-59 as it followed a strong Nino, but cold and dry is certainly a possibility

same with 79-80....followed 3 warm/neutral winters and was part of the beginning of a massive PDO shift...Of course there are many other factors too...But for me, I doubt either of those will be analogs...not to say we won't see winters that are similar

[RodneyS]

My concern is we end up with a 1979-80 or a 1958-59 type of year.

I think those two winters illustrate the difficulty of forecasting the amount of snow in a given area. The winter of 1958-59 was relatively cold at DCA, with average temperatures of 35.6 during December-February and 37.1 from December 1, 1958 to March 20, 1959. However, DCA received only 4.9 inches of snow for the season. The winter of 1979-80, on the other hand, was relatively warm at DCA, with average temperatures of 39.0 during December-February and 40.0 from December 1, 1979 to March 20, 1980. However, DCA received 20.1 inches of snow for the season (including 0.3 inches in October).

[HM]

Despite 1963-64's positioning in the longer term -PDO cycle and raw monthly values reflecting negative, it had a pretty decent +PDO configuration in the SST anomalies during the autumn. It is a very strange winter indeed. I am not hating on January this year as much as I normally would in an El Nino and 1964 is good reason.

I agree that 1958-59 and 1979-80 are not good analogs but their outcomes reflect what can go wrong when you have a higher solar state coupled with a warm event. I suppose a more likely concern would be a 1953-54 winter or even a 2006-07.

[Deck Pic]

yes...so much still to be considered

As far as PDO, part of the reason I liked 63-64 and 11-12 in addition to other factors was they were in somewhat of a -PDO or more neutral period/regime (63-64 was smack dab in the middle of a -PDO decadal regime) and overall DJF they were negative...23-24 is more questionable re: PDO and of course 2002-03 is probably a pretty bad PDO analog if we are isolating for that

I don't like 58-59 as it followed a strong Nino, but cold and dry is certainly a possibility

same with 79-80....followed 3 warm/neutral winters and was part of the beginning of a massive PDO shift...Of course there are many other factors too...But for me, I doubt either of those will be analogs...not to say we won't see winters that are similar

Taking away 02-03 since it is probably the weakest of the 4, if I was doing an outlook tomorrow, I wouldn't take the snow amounts too literally...11-12/23-24 both had 5" in March which DCA/persistence argues against....once you factor that in and the DCA adjustment, you are really looking at a 14-16" winter when gleaning from those winters...I'd also temper December in 1963 by a few inches as I don't see a cold December like that and also 64 had the fluke 5" March 31st event that is incredibly improbable now....add in a slight DCA/death valley/FAA joke adjustment and you are looking at a 20-22" winter...If I were putting an outlook out this afternoon and had no time to look at any new data, I'd probably do soemthing like this

DEC: +1

Jan: Normal

February: -3

DCA snow - 14"-18"

[HM]

Taking away 02-03 since it is probably the weakest of the 4, if I was doing an outlook tomorrow, I wouldn't take the snow amounts too literally...11-12/23-24 both had 5" in March which DCA/persistence argues against....once you factor that in and the DCA adjustment, you are really looking at a 14-16" winter when gleaning from those winters...I'd also temper December in 1964 by a few inches as I don't see a cold December like that and also 64 had the fluke 5" March 31st event that is incredibly improbable now....add in a slight DCA/death valley/FAA joke adjustment and you are looking at a 20-22" winter...If I were putting an outlook out this afternoon and had no time to look at any new data, I'd probably do soemthing like this

DEC: +1

Jan: Normal

February: -3

DCA snow - 14"-18"

Logical and perfectly stated. It seems like this would be the best route for DC at this point.

[mattie g]

I just hope we end up cold and dry, while NY and NE are cold and snowy.

[Deck Pic]

I think those two winters illustrate the difficulty of forecasting the amount of snow in a given area. The winter of 1958-59 was relatively cold at DCA, with average temperatures of 35.6 during December-February and 37.1 from December 1, 1958 to March 20, 1959. However, DCA received only 4.9 inches of snow for the season. The winter of 1979-80, on the other hand, was relatively warm at DCA, with average temperatures of 39.0 during December-February and 40.0 from December 1, 1979 to March 20, 1980. However, DCA received 20.1 inches of snow for the season (including 0.3 inches in October).

You certainly have to smooth the outliers a bit and also see what happened in the surrounding area and see if DCA had a localized anomaly..near misses etc...But I definitely think that this winter, if Nino is weak or too low end moderate, we aren't going to get very good storm tracks until pretty late and then we are dealing with an unimpressive window to pile up good numbers unless we have an early season thread the needle fluke or some March monster (very improbable east of 95 at low latitude)..I think 1st half of winter we will see a lot of lakes cutters coming out of the 4 corners, and the "good" storm track will be inland/app runners redeveloping off Jersey

Despite 1963-64's positioning in the longer term -PDO cycle and raw monthly values reflecting negative, it had a pretty decent +PDO configuration in the SST anomalies during the autumn. It is a very strange winter indeed. I am not hating on January this year as much as I normally would in an El Nino and 1964 is good reason.

I agree that 1958-59 and 1979-80 are not good analogs but their outcomes reflect what can go wrong when you have a higher solar state coupled with a warm event. I suppose a more likely concern would be a 1953-54 winter or even a 2006-07.

yes...I definitely need not to get too caught up in numbers/indices and look at underlying details more this winter..I don't really like 53-54 (3rd year warm event)....2006-07 would be pretty dirty and is a possibilty...Euro SIPS says no...hopefully it is right...Both you and Wes have been great about warning us about the stability of an EPO vortex and how models always break it down too quickly

[mattie g]

_{PS - I really appreciate the discussion among the more knowledgeable among us.}

[Deck Pic]

I just hope we end up cold and dry, while NY and NE are cold and snowy.

cold isn't as cold anymore...the 81-2010 norms in Jan/feb are pretty torchy...not as hard to get a minus month....DEC didn't change much

[HM]

Thanks Matt. We once again were reminded how powerful the EPO vortex can be and in the face of the amazing stratospheric / mid winter -AO period, it didn't lose the battle last winter. As the northern hemisphere turned exceedingly cold and snowy, we remained winterless during our only hope last year.

Thankfully, the circumstances this year could and most likely will promote its stability to change.

[mattie g]

cold isn't as cold anymore...the 81-2010 norms in Jan/feb are pretty torchy...not as hard to get a minus month....DEC didn't change much

Makes sense. I guess I don't think of pos or neg departures over a month as indicative of what I feel is warm or cold. Mine is less of a scientific/statistical view of what's cold or not and more of an "emotional" feel for it.

Either way, I appreciate the updates and the knowledge you guys are bringing to the table. I'm really interested to see how the analogs shake out.

[RodneyS]

You certainly have to smooth the outliers a bit and also see what happened in the surrounding area and see if DCA had a localized anomaly..near misses etc.

Absolutely, but just to hammer home the point about how hit or miss snowfall predictions can be for a given location, consider that not only was December 1979 to February 1980 much warmer than December 1958 to February 1959 at DCA, it was also slightly dryer. DCA recorded only 4.86 inches of precipitation during those three months in 1979-80, which was even less than the 5.34 inches of precipitation recorded for the same three months in 1958-59. Nonetheless, during December 1979 to February 1980, DCA received 13.7 inches of snow versus 4.9 inches of snow during December 1958 to February 1959.

[ORH_wxman]

Thanks Matt. We once again were reminded how powerful the EPO vortex can be and in the face of the amazing stratospheric / mid winter -AO period, it didn't lose the battle last winter. As the northern hemisphere turned exceedingly cold and snowy, we remained winterless during our only hope last year.

Thankfully, the circumstances this year could and most likely will promote its stability to change.

Last winter is a very good example of how we can get screwed despite a nice -AO event in late January/February. If you look at the mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere last winter, its almost comical how we (the CONUS) were the only region to torch....thanks to that vicious +EPO vortex.

[nzucker]

Having all the extreme cold on the Asian side has been typical the last few winters, including 09-10 when we had the PV parked over Siberia.

[HM]

Last winter is a very good example of how we can get screwed despite a nice -AO event in late January/February. If you look at the mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere last winter, its almost comical how we (the CONUS) were the only region to torch....thanks to that vicious +EPO vortex.

From a long range perspective, I gave that -AO period "too much factoring" for mid-winter and screwed up. As we got closer, it became painfully obvious we would be the only area in the NH to not experience its wrath. We can forget from our experience how insane the cold and snow was for everyone else late Jan.

Lessons were learned and the positives that came from it were new ideas about "La Nina-enhanced and suppressed" I came up with to potentially look out for in future winters.

[mitchnick]

for DCA/BWI area, the weak'ish NINO brings out more concerns of precip than temps

none of the current forecasts from any of the LR models (I've seen) has us in wetter than normal, although the old CFS is close to it for one month out of DJF (depending on the day you're looking since it changes daily)

I'd really like to see the NINO come in at least +1.5 in ENSO 3.4 for 3-4 consecutive weeks to get excited, but by the time those numbers are in, winter is already upon us

I guess I'll wait until early NOV to see how things are setting up (here's hoping for a raging +NAO in October)

[WxMidwest]

Thanks Matt. We once again were reminded how powerful the EPO vortex can be and in the face of the amazing stratospheric / mid winter -AO period, it didn't lose the battle last winter. As the northern hemisphere turned exceedingly cold and snowy, we remained winterless during our only hope last year.

Thankfully, the circumstances this year could and most likely will promote its stability to change.

I agree with all of this. The EPO is highly underrated as a long range indication tool, and has been dithered down by the crappy change from the OLD EPO to the EP/NP index (The CPC doesn't even issue a value of the EP/NP for Dec!) changes in recent years. I think the CPC may be overusing the RPCA statistical process to create teleconnection indices to the point where common sense blocking patterns may be compromised. Back to Point, We've never seen a more stable/strong/persistent 12 month period in the Alaskan/GOA low vortex at least since data starting from 1950 (I've done the math). I know some are trying to attribute this recent winter to climate change, but I beg the EPO can explain much that variability to a warm winter in Conus, parts of Spring, and of course the this past summer. For a blocking (Anti-blocking) Mechanism to be over the same area for so long & intense is rare, and when the pattern does change, it shall with hastily abandon. The Question is when, I suppose that is where this thread is going...

[Quixotic1]

I agree with all of this. The EPO is highly underrated as a long range indication tool, and has been dithered down by the crappy change from the OLD EPO to the EP/NP index (The CPC doesn't even issue a value of the EP/NP for Dec!) changes in recent years. I think the CPC may be overusing the RPCA statistical process to create teleconnection indices to the point where common sense blocking patterns may be compromised. Back to Point, We've never seen a more stable/strong/persistent 12 month period in the Alaskan/GOA low vortex at least since data starting from 1950 (I've done the math). I know some are trying to attribute this recent winter to climate change, but I beg the EPO can explain much that variability to a warm winter in Conus, parts of Spring, and of course the this past summer. For a blocking (Anti-blocking) Mechanism to be over the same area for so long & intense is rare, and when the pattern does change, it shall with hastily abandon. The Question is when, I suppose that is where this thread is going...

That's why we should root for a stronger nino: to get some of those positive SST anomalies up in the East Pacific/GOA. I don't know if this one is up to the task.

[chris21]

Based on what I've been looking at and comparing it to previous winters, I think Pocahontas County should more than make up for the lackluster snowfall last year.

[PhineasC]

My loins are starting to tingle.

[aldie 22]

My loins are starting to tingle.

Herpes?

[HM]

I agree with all of this. The EPO is highly underrated as a long range indication tool, and has been dithered down by the crappy change from the OLD EPO to the EP/NP index (The CPC doesn't even issue a value of the EP/NP for Dec!) changes in recent years. I think the CPC may be overusing the RPCA statistical process to create teleconnection indices to the point where common sense blocking patterns may be compromised. Back to Point, We've never seen a more stable/strong/persistent 12 month period in the Alaskan/GOA low vortex at least since data starting from 1950 (I've done the math). I know some are trying to attribute this recent winter to climate change, but I beg the EPO can explain much that variability to a warm winter in Conus, parts of Spring, and of course the this past summer. For a blocking (Anti-blocking) Mechanism to be over the same area for so long & intense is rare, and when the pattern does change, it shall with hastily abandon. The Question is when, I suppose that is where this thread is going...

I wouldn't go as far as "underrated" but not well understood from a longer term perspective. While we understand the basic concepts of the EPO and how it significantly correlates to CONUS patterns, there actually isn't a concrete relationship from a seasonal outlook perspective. You can't look at basic long range parameters and go, "the EPO will do this," and we face this problem every year with the NAO. There are certainly statistical relationships and plenty of theory on their mean states but so far things remain elusive.

I agree about the change in CPC / not showing DEC etc. is really irritating. Thank you for your contributions in that regard!

[WxMidwest]

For Sure, The EPO is as stochastically forecast-able as the NAO. It's harder to find leading indicator - statistical relationships for the EPO then even the NAO, at least in my experience trying. I definitely know where your coming from from the seasonal outlook perspective.

[usedtobe]

Last winter is a very good example of how we can get screwed despite a nice -AO event in late January/February. If you look at the mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere last winter, its almost comical how we (the CONUS) were the only region to torch....thanks to that vicious +EPO vortex.

I think that composite is misleading. The NAO stayed positive pretty much thru the winter except for a period in Feb and even then it averaged very weakly positive.

2011 -1.53 0.35 0.24 2.55 -0.01 -0.98 -1.48 -1.85 0.67 0.94 1.30 2.25

2012 0.86 0.03 0.93 0.37 -0.79 -2.25 -1.29 -99.90 -99.90 -99.90 -99.90 -99.90

It was mostly not a negative NAO winter and even when the ao went negative in Feb is it was not very negative. Don's analogs never really showed it going cold across the east despite some that were banking on the stratosphere to warm enough to really made a difference. The la nina, bad pacific really positive al early in the season really hosed up the winter.

[ORH_wxman]

I think that composite is misleading. The NAO stayed positive pretty much thru the winter except for a period in Feb and even then it averaged very weakly positive.

2011 -1.53 0.35 0.24 2.55 -0.01 -0.98 -1.48 -1.85 0.67 0.94 1.30 2.25

2012 0.86 0.03 0.93 0.37 -0.79 -2.25 -1.29 -99.90 -99.90 -99.90 -99.90 -99.90

It was mostly not a negative NAO winter and even when the ao went negative in Feb is it was not very negative. Don's analogs never really showed it going cold across the east despite some that were banking on the stratosphere to warm enough to really made a difference. The la nina, bad pacific really positive al early in the season really hosed up the winter.

Well the NAO def was not negative last winter...which was part of the reason we struggled in the east. But I believe by far the biggest contributor to the warmth was the +EPO...the AO actually averaged negative for both Jan/Feb (even if it was only weakly negative)....but that EPO vortex was a killer.

[aldie 22]

Seems like the argument for a cooler back half of winter is gaining some love...I guess the weak Nino may doom us with dry???