WxUSAF Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Heard this on the radio this morning. To their credit, if someone bothered to keep listening for 10-15 minutes after they warned SNOWMAGEDDON!!@@!!!111!!!, they would have heard their local guy say the NAO has some input and "we won't know about that until late November". Which, if not technically true, is at least better than Accuwx... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 lolz I think I may ask about mid-December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 I think I may ask about mid-December I originally posted that they forgot December but I deleted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 lolz El Niño roolz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 lolz https://www.facebook...65597919&type=1 Based on where the 6",12" and 24" contours cross his "above" and "much above" normal snowfall contours, it's pretty safe to say no knowledge of climatology was used when creating this product. Well, I'll generalize to say no knowledge at all was used. 6" is apparently more than 200% or more of our normal snowfall in January and February and 1-4" is 200% or more of our normal March snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Based on where the 6",12" and 24" contours cross his "above" and "much above" normal snowfall contours, it's pretty safe to say no knowledge of climatology was used when creating this product. Well, I'll generalize to say no knowledge at all was used. 6" is apparently more than 200% or more of our normal snowfall in January and February and 1-4" is 200% or more of our normal March snowfall. It's Friday, enough of your logic. Seriously, anyone have the 12/15 forecast? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Here is there Dec Forecast... I looked at the past results, last July Forecast sucked bad.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 DT is going off on them now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 DT is going off on them now He does have a lot of room to talk, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 That is super irresponsible. I really hate the media when it comes to weather. Good lord. I am not sure "irresponsible" is the right word. That implies folks are going to be negatively impacted if this forecast ends up being wrong. At worst some dude buys a snowblower he doesn't need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 I am not sure "irresponsible" is the right word. That implies folks are going to be negatively impacted if this forecast ends up being wrong. At worst some dude buys a snowblower he doesn't need. I see what you are saying - but in a day and age where the public is getting more and more "involved" and being armchair forecasters - it is setting an awful example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Lolz @ DT's comments. Can't let anyone else steal some attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Who doesn't love Big Snows? I for one do!! This Facebook post/blog on this years winter looks ridiculous. What I really meant was BS. 1st it's way to early to even come out with such of a royalty type of winter. 2nd there is not forecast to justify this post. 3rd you get my drift!!!!! How can you even predict this far out what certain time will even look. "THIS PERSON IS SMOKING WAY TO MANY COOKIES" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I was briefly texting with zwyts tonight...and I think its extremely hard not to go negative for February in an El Nino in the BWI/DCA region. A couple of exceptions, but no real reason you would ever predict it. The sample size is still fairly small (but growing with each Nino)....but going positive in an El Nino February is like predicting 35" of snow at DCA without any information at all. But some caveats....mostly the sample size. The others seem to be super Ninos which this obviously wont be. This goes back to the blocking post I had a week or two ago. Every El Nino february seems to have a decent amount of blocking with the exception of a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I like seeing the area in north texas dive southeastward, want that this winter. Some good low pattern lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 latest update http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 HM going very chilly in east most likely Jan thru March . His thoughts in new england thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 HM going very chilly in east most likely Jan thru March . His thoughts in new england thread Yes...I am starting to feel very good about SNE having a good winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Yes...I am starting to feel very good about SNE having a good winter Thank God, the complaining last year was rough. Glad you are back here posting again. It wasnt the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Yes...I am starting to feel very good about SNE having a good winter As we all know...they deserve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 HM going very chilly in east most likely Jan thru March . His thoughts in new england thread Alright, alright, let's take it easy. I'm not going anything yet. I just saw some promising signs in the base of ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Alright, alright, let's take it easy. I'm not going anything yet. I just saw some promising signs in the base of ENSO. Ji likes to make wild statements regarding forecasts based on semi-out-of-context phrases/sentences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Ji likes to make wild statements regarding forecasts based on semi-out-of-context phrases/sentences. please, don't encourage him to run for political office Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I'm starting to feel better about winter in the last few days...colder/snowier analogs like 11-12, 63-64, 02-03 are starting to jump out at me more in fact, 11-12, 23-24, 63-64, 02-03 might be my favorite analogs now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I'm starting to feel better about winter in the last few days...colder/snowier analogs like 11-12, 63-64, 02-03 are starting to jump out at me more in fact, 11-12, 23-24, 63-64, 02-03 might be my favorite analogs now... 11-12 made me think 2011-12 which made me freak out a bit....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 11-12 made me think 2011-12 which made me freak out a bit....... LOL. I thought he was joking too, then I saw the others and got confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Some solid long rangers starting to hint cold now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Accuweather FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Every preliminary winter 2012-2013 forecast out on You Tube is calling for a cold and snowy winter for us. Defiantly makes you wonder!!!! I really like seeing this +AMO and helping us with I hope some good blocking this winter. I still feel that Irene and the early Nor"Easter had some correlation with the horrible blocking last year!!! Keep Isaac away! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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