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CFS Long Range (as in Winter)


mitchnick

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Heard this on the radio this morning. To their credit, if someone bothered to keep listening for 10-15 minutes after they warned SNOWMAGEDDON!!@@!!!111!!!, they would have heard their local guy say the NAO has some input and "we won't know about that until late November". Which, if not technically true, is at least better than Accuwx...

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:lmao: Based on where the 6",12" and 24" contours cross his "above" and "much above" normal snowfall contours, it's pretty safe to say no knowledge of climatology was used when creating this product. Well, I'll generalize to say no knowledge at all was used.

6" is apparently more than 200% or more of our normal snowfall in January and February and 1-4" is 200% or more of our normal March snowfall.

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:lmao: Based on where the 6",12" and 24" contours cross his "above" and "much above" normal snowfall contours, it's pretty safe to say no knowledge of climatology was used when creating this product. Well, I'll generalize to say no knowledge at all was used.

6" is apparently more than 200% or more of our normal snowfall in January and February and 1-4" is 200% or more of our normal March snowfall.

It's Friday, enough of your logic.

Seriously, anyone have the 12/15 forecast? Thanks

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I am not sure "irresponsible" is the right word. That implies folks are going to be negatively impacted if this forecast ends up being wrong. At worst some dude buys a snowblower he doesn't need.

I see what you are saying - but in a day and age where the public is getting more and more "involved" and being armchair forecasters - it is setting an awful example.

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Who doesn't love Big Snows? I for one do!!

This Facebook post/blog on this years winter looks ridiculous. What I really meant was BS. 1st it's way to early to even come out with such of a royalty type of winter. 2nd there is not forecast to justify this post. 3rd you get my drift!!!!! How can you even predict this far out what certain time will even look. "THIS PERSON IS SMOKING WAY TO MANY COOKIES"

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I was briefly texting with zwyts tonight...and I think its extremely hard not to go negative for February in an El Nino in the BWI/DCA region. A couple of exceptions, but no real reason you would ever predict it. The sample size is still fairly small (but growing with each Nino)....but going positive in an El Nino February is like predicting 35" of snow at DCA without any information at all.

But some caveats....mostly the sample size. The others seem to be super Ninos which this obviously wont be. This goes back to the blocking post I had a week or two ago. Every El Nino february seems to have a decent amount of blocking with the exception of a few.

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HM going very chilly in east most likely Jan thru March . His thoughts in new england thread

Alright, alright, let's take it easy. I'm not going anything yet.

I just saw some promising signs in the base of ENSO.

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Every preliminary winter 2012-2013 forecast out on You Tube is calling for a cold and snowy winter for us. Defiantly makes you wonder!!!! I really like seeing this +AMO and helping us with I hope some good blocking this winter. I still feel that Irene and the early Nor"Easter had some correlation with the horrible blocking last year!!! Keep Isaac away! Lol.

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