CFS Long Range (as in Winter)

[mitchnick]

for DCA/BWI area, the weak'ish NINO brings out more concerns of precip than temps

none of the current forecasts from any of the LR models (I've seen) has us in wetter than normal, although the old CFS is close to it for one month out of DJF (depending on the day you're looking since it changes daily)

I'd really like to see the NINO come in at least +1.5 in ENSO 3.4 for 3-4 consecutive weeks to get excited, but by the time those numbers are in, winter is already upon us

I guess I'll wait until early NOV to see how things are setting up (here's hoping for a raging +NAO in October)

[WxMidwest]

Thanks Matt. We once again were reminded how powerful the EPO vortex can be and in the face of the amazing stratospheric / mid winter -AO period, it didn't lose the battle last winter. As the northern hemisphere turned exceedingly cold and snowy, we remained winterless during our only hope last year.

Thankfully, the circumstances this year could and most likely will promote its stability to change.

I agree with all of this. The EPO is highly underrated as a long range indication tool, and has been dithered down by the crappy change from the OLD EPO to the EP/NP index (The CPC doesn't even issue a value of the EP/NP for Dec!) changes in recent years. I think the CPC may be overusing the RPCA statistical process to create teleconnection indices to the point where common sense blocking patterns may be compromised. Back to Point, We've never seen a more stable/strong/persistent 12 month period in the Alaskan/GOA low vortex at least since data starting from 1950 (I've done the math). I know some are trying to attribute this recent winter to climate change, but I beg the EPO can explain much that variability to a warm winter in Conus, parts of Spring, and of course the this past summer. For a blocking (Anti-blocking) Mechanism to be over the same area for so long & intense is rare, and when the pattern does change, it shall with hastily abandon. The Question is when, I suppose that is where this thread is going...

[Quixotic1]

I agree with all of this. The EPO is highly underrated as a long range indication tool, and has been dithered down by the crappy change from the OLD EPO to the EP/NP index (The CPC doesn't even issue a value of the EP/NP for Dec!) changes in recent years. I think the CPC may be overusing the RPCA statistical process to create teleconnection indices to the point where common sense blocking patterns may be compromised. Back to Point, We've never seen a more stable/strong/persistent 12 month period in the Alaskan/GOA low vortex at least since data starting from 1950 (I've done the math). I know some are trying to attribute this recent winter to climate change, but I beg the EPO can explain much that variability to a warm winter in Conus, parts of Spring, and of course the this past summer. For a blocking (Anti-blocking) Mechanism to be over the same area for so long & intense is rare, and when the pattern does change, it shall with hastily abandon. The Question is when, I suppose that is where this thread is going...

That's why we should root for a stronger nino: to get some of those positive SST anomalies up in the East Pacific/GOA. I don't know if this one is up to the task.

[chris21]

Based on what I've been looking at and comparing it to previous winters, I think Pocahontas County should more than make up for the lackluster snowfall last year.

[PhineasC]

My loins are starting to tingle.

[aldie 22]

My loins are starting to tingle.

Herpes?

[HM]

I agree with all of this. The EPO is highly underrated as a long range indication tool, and has been dithered down by the crappy change from the OLD EPO to the EP/NP index (The CPC doesn't even issue a value of the EP/NP for Dec!) changes in recent years. I think the CPC may be overusing the RPCA statistical process to create teleconnection indices to the point where common sense blocking patterns may be compromised. Back to Point, We've never seen a more stable/strong/persistent 12 month period in the Alaskan/GOA low vortex at least since data starting from 1950 (I've done the math). I know some are trying to attribute this recent winter to climate change, but I beg the EPO can explain much that variability to a warm winter in Conus, parts of Spring, and of course the this past summer. For a blocking (Anti-blocking) Mechanism to be over the same area for so long & intense is rare, and when the pattern does change, it shall with hastily abandon. The Question is when, I suppose that is where this thread is going...

I wouldn't go as far as "underrated" but not well understood from a longer term perspective. While we understand the basic concepts of the EPO and how it significantly correlates to CONUS patterns, there actually isn't a concrete relationship from a seasonal outlook perspective. You can't look at basic long range parameters and go, "the EPO will do this," and we face this problem every year with the NAO. There are certainly statistical relationships and plenty of theory on their mean states but so far things remain elusive.

I agree about the change in CPC / not showing DEC etc. is really irritating. Thank you for your contributions in that regard!

[WxMidwest]

For Sure, The EPO is as stochastically forecast-able as the NAO. It's harder to find leading indicator - statistical relationships for the EPO then even the NAO, at least in my experience trying. I definitely know where your coming from from the seasonal outlook perspective.

[usedtobe]

Last winter is a very good example of how we can get screwed despite a nice -AO event in late January/February. If you look at the mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere last winter, its almost comical how we (the CONUS) were the only region to torch....thanks to that vicious +EPO vortex.

I think that composite is misleading. The NAO stayed positive pretty much thru the winter except for a period in Feb and even then it averaged very weakly positive.

2011 -1.53 0.35 0.24 2.55 -0.01 -0.98 -1.48 -1.85 0.67 0.94 1.30 2.25

2012 0.86 0.03 0.93 0.37 -0.79 -2.25 -1.29 -99.90 -99.90 -99.90 -99.90 -99.90

It was mostly not a negative NAO winter and even when the ao went negative in Feb is it was not very negative. Don's analogs never really showed it going cold across the east despite some that were banking on the stratosphere to warm enough to really made a difference. The la nina, bad pacific really positive al early in the season really hosed up the winter.

[ORH_wxman]

I think that composite is misleading. The NAO stayed positive pretty much thru the winter except for a period in Feb and even then it averaged very weakly positive.

2011 -1.53 0.35 0.24 2.55 -0.01 -0.98 -1.48 -1.85 0.67 0.94 1.30 2.25

2012 0.86 0.03 0.93 0.37 -0.79 -2.25 -1.29 -99.90 -99.90 -99.90 -99.90 -99.90

It was mostly not a negative NAO winter and even when the ao went negative in Feb is it was not very negative. Don's analogs never really showed it going cold across the east despite some that were banking on the stratosphere to warm enough to really made a difference. The la nina, bad pacific really positive al early in the season really hosed up the winter.

Well the NAO def was not negative last winter...which was part of the reason we struggled in the east. But I believe by far the biggest contributor to the warmth was the +EPO...the AO actually averaged negative for both Jan/Feb (even if it was only weakly negative)....but that EPO vortex was a killer.

[aldie 22]

Seems like the argument for a cooler back half of winter is gaining some love...I guess the weak Nino may doom us with dry???

[aldie 22]

we probably won't see a below normal month until January or February

That's the feel I get which Is why I mentioned back half of winter

[MN Transplant]

Seems like the argument for a cooler back half of winter is gaining some love...I guess the weak Nino may doom us with dry???

We don't do a lot of cold/dry around here. Hope for the cold, and the snow will likely follow.

[mitchnick]

I'm hating the CFS2 precip forecasts of late

extremely dry centered right over DCA/BWI

always sumtin' around here when hoping for snow

[Ellinwood]

I'm hating the CFS2 precip forecasts of late

extremely dry centered right over DCA/BWI

always sumtin' around here when hoping for snow

The models are always right 6 months out in time.

[Bob Chill]

I'm hating the CFS2 precip forecasts of late

extremely dry centered right over DCA/BWI

always sumtin' around here when hoping for snow

I always like to put our winter precip in perspective. We average over 14" of precip from Dec-Mar. Only 2" of that needs to be snow to hit climo just about everywhere. Only 14% or less of our climo winter precip is snow on average.

[mitchnick]

The models are always right 6 months out in time.

I wouldn't have posted about it except weak NINOs around here are NOT known for their precip, though they are traditionally colder than average

and considering many of the LR Enso models are weakening the NINO from forecasts a few months ago, it's a reasonable concern

and if we can't discuss what LR models are currently depicting around here because they'll change, why even have them?....or maybe the mods should just delete threads/posts concerning them?

[aldie 22]

What's more risky....getting cold and waiting for the precip or getting wet waiting for the cold....I prefer to get the cold first and take my chances.....assuming the cold is sustaining and the storm track doesn't go West when it does get wet....lol

[Fozz]

I always like to put our winter precip in perspective. We average over 14" of precip from Dec-Mar. Only 2" of that needs to be snow to hit climo just about everywhere. Only 14% or less of our climo winter precip is snow on average.

Depressing

[PhineasC]

What's more risky....getting cold and waiting for the precip or getting wet waiting for the cold....I prefer to get the cold first and take my chances.....assuming the cold is sustaining and the storm track doesn't go West when it does get wet....lol

Cold dry and warm wet is always a risk around here. All things equal I will take the cold and hope for moisture. At least that feels more seasonal and what falls will hang around.

[aldie 22]

Cold dry and warm wet is always a risk around here. All things equal I will take the cold and hope for moisture. At least that feels more seasonal and what falls will hang around.

What's funny is that I think normal in January isn't cold enough for snow here

[easternsnowman]

My loins are starting to tingle.

Don't go there....sounds like one political commentator we all know!

[Ellinwood]

I wouldn't have posted about it except weak NINOs around here are NOT known for their precip, though they are traditionally colder than average

and considering many of the LR Enso models are weakening the NINO from forecasts a few months ago, it's a reasonable concern

and if we can't discuss what LR models are currently depicting around here because they'll change, why even have them?....or maybe the mods should just delete threads/posts concerning them?

It is likely to change multiple times between now and then, so no need to fret over the models... just fret over the climo.

LR models are a tool... they are not meant to be read verbatim, ESPECIALLY the CFS/CFS2 (I would at least take the ECM output over that, if anything).

I do wish the mods would delete some of the crap in these threads, but simply making a bad post isn't usually a good enough reason for the mods to delete it, especially considering the current status of the thread/forum (off-season topic and kind of quiet in the Mid-Atlantic).

In the end, it's still August, so why worry about it now? Worry about snow when it's time to worry about it... in winter. I don't know why you would have any need to be concerned over all of the changes the LR models are showing at this time. You've got ENSO, PDO, AMO, QBO, etc. correlations that, when put together and supplemented with analog years, will give you a much better idea of what is most likely compared to some ever-changing model output. You should rely much more on the thoughts of the vetted LR forecasters (mets and non-mets alike) than changes in the LR model output at this range. LR forecasters' thoughts on this upcoming winter have been fairly well hashed-out within the forum, and that's basically all you really need until we get close to winter. There's no need to keep going back to the models to check their winter updates when we're this far out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I kind of like these storm tracks for DEC-Mid January...very quick and dirty

I like 2 of the 3.

[nw baltimore wx]

I like 2 of the 3.

lol

Regarding those specific tracks, I think a New Englander's use of "like" is different than Matt's.

[PhineasC]

It is likely to change multiple times between now and then, so no need to fret over the models... just fret over the climo.

LR models are a tool... they are not meant to be read verbatim, ESPECIALLY the CFS/CFS2 (I would at least take the ECM output over that, if anything).

I do wish the mods would delete some of the crap in these threads, but simply making a bad post isn't usually a good enough reason for the mods to delete it, especially considering the current status of the thread/forum (off-season topic and kind of quiet in the Mid-Atlantic).

In the end, it's still August, so why worry about it now? Worry about snow when it's time to worry about it... in winter. I don't know why you would have any need to be concerned over all of the changes the LR models are showing at this time. You've got ENSO, PDO, AMO, QBO, etc. correlations that, when put together and supplemented with analog years, will give you a much better idea of what is most likely compared to some ever-changing model output. You should rely much more on the thoughts of the vetted LR forecasters (mets and non-mets alike) than changes in the LR model output at this range. LR forecasters' thoughts on this upcoming winter have been fairly well hashed-out within the forum, and that's basically all you really need until we get close to winter. There's no need to keep going back to the models to check their winter updates when we're this far out.

The mods should delete your post since it is kind of pointless.

[mitchnick]

It is likely to change multiple times between now and then, so no need to fret over the models... just fret over the climo.

LR models are a tool... they are not meant to be read verbatim, ESPECIALLY the CFS/CFS2 (I would at least take the ECM output over that, if anything).

I do wish the mods would delete some of the crap in these threads, but simply making a bad post isn't usually a good enough reason for the mods to delete it, especially considering the current status of the thread/forum (off-season topic and kind of quiet in the Mid-Atlantic).

In the end, it's still August, so why worry about it now? Worry about snow when it's time to worry about it... in winter. I don't know why you would have any need to be concerned over all of the changes the LR models are showing at this time. You've got ENSO, PDO, AMO, QBO, etc. correlations that, when put together and supplemented with analog years, will give you a much better idea of what is most likely compared to some ever-changing model output. You should rely much more on the thoughts of the vetted LR forecasters (mets and non-mets alike) than changes in the LR model output at this range. LR forecasters' thoughts on this upcoming winter have been fairly well hashed-out within the forum, and that's basically all you really need until we get close to winter. There's no need to keep going back to the models to check their winter updates when we're this far out.

because it is a free country, although "barely", I'll talk and fret about LR winter models all I want regardless of the date thank you

it's like you keep forgetting this is not a Board exclusively for mets or people interested in changing careers to become one

what you may have not considered is that since the LR models obviously consider all those indices in their physics I, who really doesn't care about the minutia or I would have had a career in meteo, can pull up a LR model map. weigh it against climo and discuss what it says; and in light of LR forecasts put out by people in the past using the correlation method, my method is no less accurate this far out

[Bob Chill]

We've had a big run of -NAO in June/July. August will go down as neg too. Probably get some rocks thrown at me for this but every June since 1950 that had a -nao below -1.5 had a + NAO in Dec/Jan. It's not a long list (51,71,82,87,98) and probably doesn't mean squat.

[aldie 22]

I kind of like these storm tracks for DEC-Mid January...very quick and dirty

Lol....I know those are climo for a weak nino in the early season but man....there aren't any storm tracks that get much uglier than that for our area....yeesh.

[SoCoWx]

Lol....I know those are climo for a weak nino in the early season but man....there aren't any storm tracks that get much uglier than that for our area....yeesh.

Well, I'm not trying to bash zwyts by any stretch of the imagination, but from what I've observed so far from the other mets on these forums, he is by far, one of the most pessimistic about the upcoming winter.

The others aren't overly excited about this Winter, but quite a bit more optimistic, we'll say.