CFS Long Range (as in Winter)

[mitchnick]

Somebody had to post this. Pretty exciting for the winter if it's anywhere close to being right.

CFS 200mb maps showed the following in the first 10 days of June, 2009 for the 12/09-2/10 period

200mb forecast using mid-May, 2012 initial conditions:

Here's the current CFS for essentially last 10 days

Bottom line, decent high latitude blocking starting to show up. And in case you were wondering, here's the first 10 days from June of last year; completely different w/no blocking. CFS was proven right as we all painfully remember.

[RickinBaltimore]

For use weather noobs who aren't fully up to speed, let me ask a dumb question. This is showing a cooler and wetter winter than last year, correct?

[mitchnick]

For use weather noobs who aren't fully up to speed, let me ask a dumb question. This is showing a cooler and wetter winter than last year, correct?

The yellow/tan colors around the North Pole indicates high latitude blocking, which forces the cold air further south into the mid-latitudes (where we live!) Winters with high latitude blocking are notoriously our snowiest. Plus, it's the exact opposite to what the model showed around this time last year for last winter (the blue color, which suggested a lot of cold air bottled up around the North Pole.)

[Bob Chill]

The yellow/tan colors around the North Pole indicates high latitude blocking, which forces the cold air further south into the mid-latitudes (where we live!) Winters with high latitude blocking are notoriously our snowiest. Plus, it's the exact opposite to what the model showed around this time last year for last winter (the blue color, which suggested a lot of cold air bottled up around the North Pole.)

oh, mitch.......why? why are you doing this to me? It's tooooo early......

There are some early indications that this winter "could potentially" be alot more favorable in the blocking department than last winter. Heck, last winter was record +NAO territory so it won't be too hard to beat it.

Gotta like what we're seeing with ENSO forecasts. No reason to doubt a building Nino at this point. How strong it gets is anyone's guess but I doubt it will be stronger than moderate. 72-73 was one of the few times that a multi year -enso flipped to a strong +.

I was digging into the enso signal and what it might mean for this summer and based on a small but good set of analogs, we may have an overall trough/ridge/trough general pattern in July-August (assuming enso continues to warm) across the conus. I wouldn't mind seeing that first before taking anything serious about the upcoming winter.

Prob doesn't mean much considering the time of year but the NAO is forecast to drop below -2 in early June. This hasn't happened since the first week of November of 2011. If you want the CFS to be right we better hope the uber +NAO regime that's lasted over half a year is behind us. If we end up with another +NAO winter I might cry.

[mitchnick]

oh, mitch.......why? why are you doing this to me? It's tooooo early......

There are some early indications that this winter "could potentially" be alot more favorable in the blocking department than last winter. Heck, last winter was record +NAO territory so it won't be too hard to beat it.

Gotta like what we're seeing with ENSO forecasts. No reason to doubt a building Nino at this point. How strong it gets is anyone's guess but I doubt it will be stronger than moderate. 72-73 was one of the few times that a multi year -enso flipped to a strong +.

I was digging into the enso signal and what it might mean for this summer and based on a small but good set of analogs, we may have an overall trough/ridge/trough general pattern in July-August (assuming enso continues to warm) across the conus. I wouldn't mind seeing that first before taking anything serious about the upcoming winter.

Prob doesn't mean much considering the time of year but the NAO is forecast to drop below -2 in early June. This hasn't happened since the first week of November of 2011. If you want the CFS to be right we better hope the uber +NAO regime that's lasted over half a year is behind us. If we end up with another +NAO winter I might cry.

why you ask?

why not; I hate summer heat and the potential for damage and flooding in our area from hurricanes/tropical systems isn't what I consider fun

anyway, this winter has got to be better than last year and has a few things lining up in our favor, or so it seems at this early stage

[Bob Chill]

why you ask?

why not; I hate summer heat and the potential for damage and flooding in our area from hurricanes/tropical systems isn't what I consider fun

anyway, this winter has got to be better than last year and has a few things lining up in our favor, or so it seems at this early stage

I'm with ya man. I like discussing possibilities too no matter how "early" it is. It's fun. interesting and a good way to learn stuff.

Let's keep an eye on region 3.4 and lock that in first. Enso neutrals after multi-year nina's have a long history of sucking.

HL blocking is super tough to forecast with just a couple of weeks lead time so I don't know how the CFS can be accurate at all with this kind of lead time. Maybe it's keying in on enso and an active stj? More often than not, hl blocking goes hand and hand with that (unless my memory sucks and that's quite possible).

[Avdave]

LOL at Tropical/Hurricane systems in our region.

[RickinBaltimore]

LOL at Tropical/Hurricane systems in our region.

I don't the people in Middle River would LOL at that seeing what Isabel did to the area a few years ago.

[Avdave]

I don't the people in Middle River would LOL at that seeing what Isabel did to the area a few years ago.

The way mitchnick worded it was like this area gets them all the time. Isabel was what 8-9 yrs ago or so?

[Bob Chill]

The way mitchnick worded it was like this area gets them all the time. Isabel was what 8-9 yrs ago or so?

Well, when hurrcane Kirk makes a run up the mouth of the chesapeake and hangs a left turn at Pt. Lookout you will be singlehandedly responsible for the path of destruction.

[Avdave]

Well, when hurrcane Kirk makes a run up the mouth of the chesapeake and hangs a left turn at Pt. Lookout you will be singlehandedly responsible for the path of destruction.

Ill be sure to bump this post good sir Bob

[mitchnick]

The way mitchnick worded it was like this area gets them all the time. Isabel was what 8-9 yrs ago or so?

Although I agree we don't get a ton of it, I was up all night last year with Irene (it was Irene, wasn't it?) when we lost power and trees were down all over the neighborhood blocking roads for days. It probably wasn't so bad out where you are, but it sucked here. I just have no interest in summer or tropical wx like many on the Board do, mainly for its destructive tendencies.

[marked8]

At least it is still winter somewhere in the lower 48 as it is snowing in Montana.

Here is hoping for good things this winter.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

anyway, this winter has got to be better than last year and has a few things lining up in our favor, or so it seems at this early stage

I agree. Even if we have a relatively craptacular winter overall, it almost certainly can't be as bad as last year's train wreck! Will be kind of hard to undercut the meager 2.3" snow I received last winter.

But before that, I just hope we don't have a 3rd straight godawful hot summer in the next few months!

[Bob Chill]

I agree. Even if we have a relatively craptacular winter overall, it almost certainly can't be as bad as last year's train wreck! Will be kind of hard to undercut the meager 2.3" snow I received last winter.

But before that, I just hope we don't have a 3rd straight godawful hot summer in the next few months!

Won't take much to be better right? We'll be ALL over that this fall/winter...."yea, even though the pattern sucks it's still better than last year.......3" of slop followed by rain seems like a blizzard compared to last year....the 240 hour gfs is showing a storm that would be 10x my seasonal total last year". Jokes aside, early indications are pointing a winter that won't suck as bad as last year..,...unless we end up with a neutral ENSO winter.......that would be almost the kiss of death.....

Both the AO & NAO are -2 right now. It's been a long, long time since that's happened. Doesn't mean crap as far as winter is concerned but it sure is making for some nice sleep weather and is going to make it tough for June to be a torch.

[mitchnick]

Won't take much to be better right? We'll be ALL over that this fall/winter...."yea, even though the pattern sucks it's still better than last year.......3" of slop followed by rain seems like a blizzard compared to last year....the 240 hour gfs is showing a storm that would be 10x my seasonal total last year". Jokes aside, early indications are pointing a winter that won't suck as bad as last year..,...unless we end up with a neutral ENSO winter.......that would be almost the kiss of death.....

Both the AO & NAO are -2 right now. It's been a long, long time since that's happened. Doesn't mean crap as far as winter is concerned but it sure is making for some nice sleep weather and is going to make it tough for June to be a torch.

yes they are Bob, but even better in my feeble mind is the fact that they are lower than proged by the ensembles

http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep....ndex_ensm.shtml

[Bob Chill]

yes they are Bob, but even better in my feeble mind is the fact that they are lower than proged by the ensembles

http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep....ndex_ensm.shtml

I think I found a connection....... heh

Nino's following Nina's analogs look pretty good in the AO/NAO dept. This list includes a couple Nino's that follow neg neutral ensos but close enough for having some fun with #'s.

51-52- AO/NAO combo was "ok" all year. Nothing raging positive and a solid -AO in Feb-Mar

57-58- Great combo all the way around excluding December

65-66- Great combo all the way around excluding December

72-73- A bit of a dog. NAO was "ok" but the AO sucked

76-77- Don't need to say anything else other than the year. lol

86-87- So-so in the NAO dept but the AO was sweet in Jan-Mar

06-07- Don't need to say anything else other than the year. boooo

09-10- I'm having a hard time remembering that year. Was it good?

Intersting stat- of the 8 analogs, December was basically neutral positive to very positive with both indexes with the exception of 76-77 and 09-10. I guess you can say we have a 75% chance at a notsogood December coming up (if we get a Nino of course but I think it's looking almost like a lock at this point).

It a bit encouraging seeing 76-77 and 09-10 come up in the analog department. I'm riding those 2 analogs like a custom harley with Pam Anderson AND Jessica Simpson on the back......naked....

[WinterWxLuvr]

I think I found a connection....... heh

Nino's following Nina's analogs look pretty good in the AO/NAO dept. This list includes a couple Nino's that follow neg neutral ensos but close enough for having some fun with #'s.

51-52- AO/NAO combo was "ok" all year. Nothing raging positive and a solid -AO in Feb-Mar

57-58- Great combo all the way around excluding December

65-66- Great combo all the way around excluding December

72-73- A bit of a dog. NAO was "ok" but the AO sucked

76-77- Don't need to say anything else other than the year. lol

86-87- So-so in the NAO dept but the AO was sweet in Jan-Mar

06-07- Don't need to say anything else other than the year. boooo

09-10- I'm having a hard time remembering that year. Was it good?

Intersting stat- of the 8 analogs, December was basically neutral positive to very positive with both indexes with the exception of 76-77 and 09-10. I guess you can say we have a 75% chance at a notsogood December coming up (if we get a Nino of course but I think it's looking almost like a lock at this point).

It a bit encouraging seeing 76-77 and 09-10 come up in the analog department. I'm riding those 2 analogs like a custom harley with Pam Anderson AND Jessica Simpson on the back......naked....

.....facing each other....

[Ender]

Here is hoping for good things this winter.

It's gonna be an amazing winter...

[Deck Pic]

[ORH_wxman]

That -PDO is still holding pretty strong...though finally showing a bit of chinks in the armour. The N ATL looks classic tripole pattern for -NAO....though the correlation isn't that strong...its strongest in late Spring, and fortunately its been like that for a while now.

[Ian]

Cold and dry

[Deck Pic]

That -PDO is still holding pretty strong...though finally showing a bit of chinks in the armour. The N ATL looks classic tripole pattern for -NAO....though the correlation isn't that strong...its strongest in late Spring, and fortunately its been like that for a while now.

I know Ray sports wood at this idea of a 77-78 or 04-05 weak Nino, but if you get something too close to neutral or neutral following a cold period it is probably going to have a nina hangover to some extent...I think we all want a formidable nino....51-52, 89-90, 01-02, even 06-07 are risks....we don't need a nino on steroids but anything moderate and this winter will probably be sick....Ray's wet dream of a 3.4 departure of 0.8 is a huge risk if we have an uncooperative Atlantic and we have a PV somewhere awful that Nino can't force out...A straight neutral winter would probably be a complete disaster

[Deck Pic]

Cold and dry

I actually think this scenario is the least likely.....I think if nino isn't formidable enough to give us a southern stream and pop a +PNA, we probably torch....I think we are cold and snowy or we straight up sh-it the bed

[ORH_wxman]

I know Ray sports wood at this idea of a 77-78 or 04-05 weak Nino, but if you get something too close to neutral or neutral following a cold period it is probably going to have a nina hangover to some extent...I think we all want a formidable nino....51-52, 89-90, 01-02, even 06-07 are risks....we don't need a nino on steroids but anything moderate and this winter will probably be sick....Ray's wet dream of a 3.4 departure of 0.8 is a huge risk if we have an uncooperative Atlantic and we have a PV somewhere awful that Nino can't force out...A straight neutral winter would probably be a complete disaster

Its definitely a risk...though the weak Nino of '76-'77 was right after a 3 year Nina with '75-'76 being a strong Nina. I'm convinced its almost solely about the NAO in El Nino...if its positive, we're probably cooked, if its negative or neutral, we will probably have a lot of storms to track and a good supply of cold air.

But the NAO isn't completely independent of the PAC unfortunately. It does have some covariance with the PNA...esp in El Nino. So figuring out the N PAC is still important.

That said, I would perfectly comfortable with a 3.4 trimonthly peak in the 1.5-1.7 range. It would probably be a good winter for most of the east coast. I think the ceiling is higher for New England if the Nino stays kind of weak, but there is no reason it can't be a great winter anyway in the mentioned scenario ala '57-'58, '65-'66, or '02-'03 (or even '86-'87, though that winter really screwed NYC). Obviously DCA/BWI do much better in those more potent Ninos...winters like '04-'05, '76-'77, and '68-'69 sucked there for snow even though they were cold overall.

[ORH_wxman]

The STJ is so important for DCA/BWI to get a blockbuster winter...probably 2nd only to the NAO, but it might even be about as important. Obviously the more potent Ninos will allow it to become a major player versus the weaker Ninos that allow the northern stream to still dominate much of the time.

[Ian]

I actually think this scenario is the least likely.....I think if nino isn't formidable enough to give us a southern stream and pop a +PNA, we probably torch....I think we are cold and snowy or we straight up sh-it the bed

Warm and wet

.. Trolling ...

I'm moving to Denver anyway

[Deck Pic]

Its definitely a risk...though the weak Nino of '76-'77 was right after a 3 year Nina with '75-'76 being a strong Nina. I'm convinced its almost solely about the NAO in El Nino...if its positive, we're probably cooked, if its negative or neutral, we will probably have a lot of storms to track and a good supply of cold air.

But the NAO isn't completely independent of the PAC unfortunately. It does have some covariance with the PNA...esp in El Nino. So figuring out the N PAC is still important.

That said, I would perfectly comfortable with a 3.4 trimonthly peak in the 1.5-1.7 range. It would probably be a good winter for most of the east coast. I think the ceiling is higher for New England if the Nino stays kind of weak, but there is no reason it can't be a great winter anyway in the mentioned scenario ala '57-'58, '65-'66, or '02-'03 (or even '86-'87, though that winter really screwed NYC). Obviously DCA/BWI do much better in those more potent Ninos...winters like '04-'05, '76-'77, and '68-'69 sucked there for snow even though they were cold overall.

I think 76-77 benefitted from the PDO decadal shift, but that is my theory and it is probably nonsense....I think anyone in DC/MD/VA would kill for 04-05....I got 17" in a 6 week winter.....despite the miller B quasi-bust which still gave me 3-4" of +SN, the 1/19 clipper was great, the 1/29-30 storm was wet but nice, the end of FEB storms were great even if underperformers...march 8th was super cool....if we knew what we know now, we'd sacrifice limbs to get that winter again...76-77 was fine because of all the snowcover even though most fell in a short period...68-69 was fine too...just not at DCA....I'm sure I cracked 14-15" that winter.any of those would be fine

[Deck Pic]

Warm and wet

.. Trolling ...

I'm moving to Denver anyway

cool...I'll come visit and I'll day trip west while you day trip east

[Deck Pic]

The STJ is so important for DCA/BWI to get a blockbuster winter...probably 2nd only to the NAO, but it might even be about as important. Obviously the more potent Ninos will allow it to become a major player versus the weaker Ninos that allow the northern stream to still dominate much of the time.

weak ninos are rare....I'm sure this nino will be formidable....