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June 2012 General Discussion


Chicago Storm

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I have no agenda, but these kind of numbers should be scary for cold lovers. It would be one thing if the last eight months had been mostly slightly above average, but these are some crazy departures taken together (esp for ORD). June looks to continue the warm trend, and it would be hard to think of any periods where 12 straight months have been above average for any city, but it's looking quite possible this year for some cities.

At Detroit, the monthly mean temp departure was above normal for 16 consecutive months from November 1930 through February 1932. Next up would be a 15 month stretch from December 1997 through February 1999. Note that a few months in each time period were months that were just slightly above normal, but the far majority were well above normal.

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Today was the 25th 80+ day at ORD.

There has only been one other year with more 80+ days by this point in a year, and that was 1977 (30 days). (Credit: Bill Snyder @ WGN)

Most 80+ days in a year...

1. 103 - 2005

2. 102 - 2007

2. 102 - 1953

4. 101 - 1963

4. 101 - 1944

Wow...DTW has "only" had 17 days so far of 80F+. Our record is 99 days in 1977, which was obviously sandwiched in by two harsh winters.

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Some air quality alerts have been put out for NW IN, the Fort Wayne, IN area and along the eastern shore of Lake Michigan for tomorrow. First widespread advisory of this nature of the season.

INZ003>005-018-025-100400-

LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-ALLEN IN-HUNTINGTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...

MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...NAPPANEE...

FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE

1021 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012 /921 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/

...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR SATURDAY JUNE 9TH

AND SUNDAY JUNE 10TH...

THE INDIANA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT HAS DECLARED

SATURDAY...JUNE 9TH...AND SUNDAY JUNE 10TH TO BE AIR QUALITY

ACTION DAYS FOR THE FOLLOWING INDIANA COUNTIES...LAPORTE...ST.

JOSEPH...ELKHART... ALLEN...AND HUNTINGTON. OZONE LEVELS ARE

EXPECTED TO BE IN THE ORANGE OR UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS

RANGE. ACTIVE CHILDREN AND ADULTS...AND PEOPLE WITH RESPIRATORY

DISEASE...SUCH AS ASTHMA SHOULD LIMIT PROLONGED OUTDOOR EXERTION

DURING AIR QUALITY ACTION DAYS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT THE INDIANA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL

MANAGEMENT WEBSITE AT...HTTP://WWW.IN.GOV/APPS/IDEM/SMOG...OR THE

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY AIRNOW WEBSITE

AT...HTTP://WWW.AIRNOW.GOV.

AIR QUALITY ADVISORY

MIZ037-038-043-044-050-056-057-064-071-100400-

AIR QUALITY ADVISORY

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MICHIGAN

1206 PM EDT FRI JUN 08 2012

...AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR SATURDAY JUNE 9TH...

THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY HAS

DECLARED SATURDAY...JUNE 9TH...TO BE AN ACTION DAY FOR

ELEVATED LEVELS OF OZONE. POLLUTANTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE

UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS RANGE.

THE ACTION DAY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING MICHIGAN COUNTIES...

ALLEGAN...KENT...LAKE...MASON...MUSKEGON...NEWAYGO...OCEANA...

OTTAWA...AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES.

PEOPLE AND BUSINESSES ARE URGED TO AVOID ACTIVITIES WHICH LEAD

TO OZONE FORMATION. THESE ACTIVITIES INCLUDE...REFUELING VEHICLES

OR TOPPING OFF WHEN REFUELING...USING GASOLINE POWERED LAWN

EQUIPMENT...AND USING CHARCOAL LIGHTER FLUID. POSITIVE ACTIVITIES

INCLUDE...CAR POOLING...BIKING TO WORK...DELAYING OR COMBINING

ERRANDS AND USING WATER BASED PAINTS.

IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT ACTIVE CHILDREN AND ADULTS...AND PERSONS

WITH RESPIRATORY DISEASES SUCH AS ASTHMA...LIMIT PROLONGED

OUTDOOR EXERTION.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF

ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT...

HTTP://WWW.DEQMIAIR.ORG

$$

NJJ

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Not much discussion has occurred about the last 8 odd months and the unprecedented warmth, but I have to post the departures for Milwaukee and then Chicago (ORD):

MKE:

October 2011: +2.2

November 2011: +3.6

December 2011: +6.8

January 2012: +6.0

February 2012: +5.2

March 2012: +13.8

April 2012: +0.7

May 2012: +5.3

ORD:

October 2011: +2.4

November 2011: +4.6

December 2011: +7.5

January 2012: +6.4

February 2012: +5.2

March 2012: +15.6

April 2012: +1.8

May 2012: +6.5

I have no agenda, but these kind of numbers should be scary for cold lovers. It would be one thing if the last eight months had been mostly slightly above average, but these are some crazy departures taken together (esp for ORD). June looks to continue the warm trend, and it would be hard to think of any periods where 12 straight months have been above average for any city, but it's looking quite possible this year for some cities.

all the trolling warm blowhards will be screaming for their momma's when mother nature evens things out.

I think we're at 10 - 80+ degree days already. avg high hits 80 july 1st

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Not much discussion has occurred about the last 8 odd months and the unprecedented warmth, but I have to post the departures for Milwaukee and then Chicago (ORD):

MKE:

October 2011: +2.2

November 2011: +3.6

December 2011: +6.8

January 2012: +6.0

February 2012: +5.2

March 2012: +13.8

April 2012: +0.7

May 2012: +5.3

ORD:

October 2011: +2.4

November 2011: +4.6

December 2011: +7.5

January 2012: +6.4

February 2012: +5.2

March 2012: +15.6

April 2012: +1.8

May 2012: +6.5

I have no agenda, but these kind of numbers should be scary for cold lovers. It would be one thing if the last eight months had been mostly slightly above average, but these are some crazy departures taken together (esp for ORD). June looks to continue the warm trend, and it would be hard to think of any periods where 12 straight months have been above average for any city, but it's looking quite possible this year for some cities.

Here using UGN's averages, April was -0.7° here. April was a lot more typical then March was. Eventually things will turn around and come back to bite us in the arse!

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DVN not too optimistic on rain chances late this weekend/early next week.

...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A GOOD PORTION OF

THE AREA COULD SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT.

SHOULD SUNDAYS EXPECTED STORMS TO OUR WEST DECAY SUBSTANTIALLY

OVERNIGHT BEFORE REACHING EASTERN IOWA AND THEN STORMS NOT REFIRE

ALONG THE BOUNDARY UNTIL IT IS EAST OF MUCH OF OUR AREA MONDAY

AFTERNOON...THEN IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF THE REGION LOSE

THIS CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

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Interesting tidbit from DTX

On June 9, 1997, the high temperature in Detroit was 80 degrees. While this would seem to be unremarkable, it was the first 80 degree day in Southeast Michigan in 1997, making it the latest date to record the first 80 degree high temperature.
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Actually nocturnal frontal passage is usually better since storms typically form ahead of the actual cold front and a strengthening low level jet often compensates for decreased solar heating in the evening for several hours after sunset.  I'd say 10:00 AM to 1:00 PM is the worst timing for frontal passage.  10:00 PM to 1:00 AM is the best.

Violently disagree. I'd probably take 10 PM to 1 AM over 10 AM to 1 PM but I have a difficult time putting it above late afternoon/early evening.

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Actually nocturnal frontal passage is usually better since storms typically form ahead of the actual cold front and a strengthening low level jet often compensates for decreased solar heating in the evening for several hours after sunset. I'd say 10:00 AM to 1:00 PM is the worst timing for frontal passage. 10:00 PM to 1:00 AM is the best.

Violently disagree. I'd probably take 10 PM to 1 AM over 10 AM to 1 PM but I have a difficult time putting it above late afternoon/early evening.

I have seen a couple of times where afternoon destabilization/prefrontal trough kicks off severe in the late afternoon with actual frontal passage in the midnight timeframe. But I love seeing some early morning t-storms with late morning clearing and a late afternoon/early evening main show.

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I have seen a couple of times where afternoon destabilization/prefrontal trough kicks off severe in the late afternoon with actual frontal passage in the midnight timeframe. But I love seeing some early morning t-storms with late morning clearing and a late afternoon/early evening main show.

Agreed with the bolded.

That's pretty hard to see though (unless the storms manage to occur before sunrise). even if, in theory, the instability manages to redevelop, it's a matter of getting that instability to lift and organize. The problem still is the early morning t'storms can lead to significant subsidence, and short of any large scale forcing mechanism to overcome the subsidence, that will pretty much kill any late afternoon/early evening potential.

That's why I prefer we start off with a completely clean slate when it comes to severe weather. No MCS or MCVs from the previous night, no cloud debris, no nothing. Just clear skies through early aftrnoon and decent moisture advection with some type of shortwave passage around 4PM-7PM.

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Sitting at 86°/49° here. Feels like Arizona heat out there!

Interesting rainfall plot with a stripe of higher precip along Lake MI. Lake breeze t-storms?

The GFS has been putting out solutions like that for a few runs now...i'm not too optimistic but a few tenths would be nice.

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