Chambana Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Already at 83, bank clock says 84 as of noon. It's a beautiful day out there, drinking some shock top lemon shandy with a lime wedge, about to fire up the grill! June is still averaging below normal, will be interesting to see how the temps average at the end of the month. FWIW, the extended forecast looks very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 We've been stuck at 81*F for the last two observations. Hopefully the Altostratus crap is OUT OF HERE!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Already at 83, bank clock says 84 as of noon. It's a beautiful day out there, drinking some shock top lemon shandy with a lime wedge, about to fire up the grill! June is still averaging below normal, will be interesting to see how the temps average at the end of the month. FWIW, the extended forecast looks very warm. Surprisingly, we're averaging a tad below normal as well, but I'm sure that won't last long with 4 straight days of 80s or low 90s coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Since in most cases this year the best shear has been displaced just behind the cold fronts, tornado episodes and outbreaks have been hard to come by. However, it's not like there has been no severe weather, although it has been farther north than one would expect for late spring. With the storm track being so far north and west it's hard to get a good shear setup over the warm sector, at least east of the Mississippi. West of the Mississippi the topography alone generates some shear. We really need some kind of blocking high over northern Canada so that developing lows track more easterly than northeasterly. Wisconsin has still been doing better than places farther south and east. I'm hoping instability alone will be enough for some stronger storms Monday evening. The GFS is showing pretty high moisture ahead of the front but I don't know whether to trust it. As of now the timing looks better for Wisconsin than Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 With the storm track being so far north and west it's hard to get a good shear setup over the warm sector, at least east of the Mississippi. West of the Mississippi the topography alone generates some shear. We really need some kind of blocking high over northern Canada so that developing lows track more easterly than northeasterly. Wisconsin has still been doing better than places farther south and east. I'm hoping instability alone will be enough for some stronger storms Monday evening. The GFS is showing pretty high moisture ahead of the front but I don't know whether to trust it. As of now the timing looks better for Wisconsin than Michigan. Yeah, I'd say Milwaukee's actually doing better this year than last year at this time. We have already had 5 severe t'storm warnings, whereas last year it was difficult to get severe t'storm action barring a couple days (like June 21st). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Although this probably goes in the severe thread, next Monday's setup looks pretty similar to Memorial Day Monday's setup. Maybe we can get a tad higher dews to make up for the relative lack of shear and still get a squall line at least, but it definitely doesn't look anywhere near an outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 81 and beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 86F...temp zooming now...should come up around 90F me thinks... AC cranking and the girls at the park are already half naked. Last night it was literally a circus (I saw clowns) at the park. Good day for a frozen treat. More wind today too... Looks like humidies will stay low this weekend (fairly common in early June)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 81 and beautiful 85 down this way, but with a Td of 42, it's still feeling comfy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Although this probably goes in the severe thread, next Monday's setup looks pretty similar to Memorial Day Monday's setup. Maybe we can get a tad higher dews to make up for the relative lack of shear and still get a squall line at least, but it definitely doesn't look anywhere near an outbreak. I hope the pre-frontal system nosing in from the south helps back the wind to a more southerly or southeasterly direction as opposed to southwesterly. Then maybe some stuff can fire on the lake breeze so I don't have to completely rely on the WI convection surviving into the wee hours of Tuesday morning. Just need the high dewpoints to actually verify instead of mixing out to nothing over the drought-stricken lower Mississippi and corn belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 89F now...this dry air is making it easy for temps to rocket upwards... Drought summer coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Once again it appears eastern Iowa may be a victim of poor fropa timing. The front is currently forecast to move through here around dawn Monday. With the next week following the fropa looking dry I really hope I can at least get a tenth of an inch or two to top off my rain barrel. It's going to be a long summer if this pattern keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Models, especially the Euro, continue to advertise the heat dome of death beginning next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Up to 86 here. Not bad at all with low dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Well, at least the 12z GFS is a "drought buster" for many north of the Milwaukee/Chicago corridor (problem is, much of that area is not in much of a drought, it's the areas south of this corridor that are). That region does not need more rain! Hopefully the models will trend south with the moisture. Ground is cracked here. At 85°/50° right now. Heat index is actually lower then the actual temperatures, which is rare around here! Low 54° this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Hit 88 today, but didn't feel bad at all with low dews. Dry weather kind of sucks, but it's nice not having to mow every 5 days and get eaten alive by mosquitoes in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Heat building with a -NAO. Once this block breaks down or shifts further east the heat dome could get locked in over us. Will we see 600dm heights once more? Last July was so kick butt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Once again it appears eastern Iowa may be a victim of poor fropa timing. The front is currently forecast to move through here around dawn Monday. With the next week following the fropa looking dry I really hope I can at least get a tenth of an inch or two to top off my rain barrel. It's going to be a long summer if this pattern keeps up. I feel you on the timing issues. Seems like we are always getting nocturnal frontal passage when the instability is all but non existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Hit 88 today, but didn't feel bad at all with low dews. Dry weather kind of sucks, but it's nice not having to mow every 5 days and get eaten alive by mosquitoes in the process. I think I've killed maybe 10 mosquitoes since early May! And I'm outside a lot. Too dry and too windy for them. Lake breeze kicked in, dropped the temp into the upper 70s. 96 hour precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 I think I've killed maybe 10 mosquitoes since early May! And I'm outside a lot. Too dry and too windy for them. Lake breeze kicked in, dropped the temp into the upper 70s. 96 hour precipitation. I would imagine it's not going to be a pretty allergy season (ragweed at least) if we continue to have a difficult time getting rain, and unless we have a cool late summer/early fall, it might last an awful long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 I would imagine it's not going to be a pretty allergy season (ragweed at least) if we continue to have a difficult time getting rain, and unless we have a cool late summer/early fall, it might last an awful long time. The mold spores that bother me in high quantities like last year haven't been a real issue yet this year. Ragweed always seems to find a way to bother me later in summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 I'm ordering a super duper high tech air filter for the whole house. I'm not messing with ragweed anymore. Central air does work good, but I want all of it gone. I'm already dreading it because you know it is going to be a few weeks early, probably early August? I haven't mowed in over a week and have no intention on mowing until at least Monday... Today I ate strawberries, sweet cherries and onions (green) out of the yard... Also have some good sized cilantro and the garlic is almost ready to be picked. Too bad the tomatoes are still a ways out there. Never have had sweet cherries so good off my trees. The perfectly timed rains made them huge and the dry, sunny warm wx, cool nights have just made them fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Not much discussion has occurred about the last 8 odd months and the unprecedented warmth, but I have to post the departures for Milwaukee and then Chicago (ORD): MKE: October 2011: +2.2 November 2011: +3.6 December 2011: +6.8 January 2012: +6.0 February 2012: +5.2 March 2012: +13.8 April 2012: +0.7 May 2012: +5.3 ORD: October 2011: +2.4 November 2011: +4.6 December 2011: +7.5 January 2012: +6.4 February 2012: +5.2 March 2012: +15.6 April 2012: +1.8 May 2012: +6.5 I have no agenda, but these kind of numbers should be scary for cold lovers. It would be one thing if the last eight months had been mostly slightly above average, but these are some crazy departures taken together (esp for ORD). June looks to continue the warm trend, and it would be hard to think of any periods where 12 straight months have been above average for any city, but it's looking quite possible this year for some cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 I think I've killed maybe 10 mosquitoes since early May! And I'm outside a lot. Too dry and too windy for them. Lake breeze kicked in, dropped the temp into the upper 70s. 96 hour precipitation. Wonderful lake Michigan hole for me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 I feel you on the timing issues. Seems like we are always getting nocturnal frontal passage when the instability is all but non existent. Actually nocturnal frontal passage is usually better since storms typically form ahead of the actual cold front and a strengthening low level jet often compensates for decreased solar heating in the evening for several hours after sunset. I'd say 10:00 AM to 1:00 PM is the worst timing for frontal passage. 10:00 PM to 1:00 AM is the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 Today was the 25th 80+ day at ORD. There has only been one other year with more 80+ days by this point in a year, and that was 1977 (30 days). (Credit: Bill Snyder @ WGN) Most 80+ days in a year... 1. 103 - 2005 2. 102 - 2007 2. 102 - 1953 4. 101 - 1963 4. 101 - 1944 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Riverside Park in La Crosse this evening...looking west out over the Mississippi River... Nice night for a boat ride: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 RAP has us gtting into the low 90s tomorrow (as early as Noon to 1 PM). It wouldn't surprise me, given how well it's been handling the temps around here. Monday is looking to be a disappointment though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Actually nocturnal frontal passage is usually better since storms typically form ahead of the actual cold front and a strengthening low level jet often compensates for decreased solar heating in the evening for several hours after sunset. I'd say 10:00 AM to 1:00 PM is the worst timing for frontal passage. 10:00 PM to 1:00 AM is the best. Yeah, but the LLJ is useless (in terms of any decent t'storm prospects) if there's no instability to utilize, assuming an LLJ develops. They're usually absent with weaker systems, even at night. I'll take my chances with storms in the 4 PM to 7 PM timeframe. I've heard that's when a storm's downdraft is at its strongest, at the tail end of peaking heating and the ending of the diurnal cycle. At that point, all the potential instability has had a chance to develop and a storm's updraft would be weakening, thus allowing them to collapse easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Today was the 25th 80+ day at ORD. There has only been one other year with more 80+ days by this point in a year, and that was 1977 (30 days). (Credit: Bill Snyder @ WGN) Most 80+ days in a year... 1. 103 - 2005 2. 102 - 2007 2. 102 - 1953 4. 101 - 1963 4. 101 - 1944 Incredible! Surprised that 1995 and 1988 are not in that list. Just 30 miles away from ORD; here, I've only logged 10 days in the 80s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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