Chicago Storm Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Man, the RAP and NAM are not doing good with current dews out in IA. Area of 72-77 dews with 19z obs where the NAM only had upper 60's and the RAP even worse. ...And the GFS is too high with DP's farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I think DPs in the 70-75 range are a safe bet by later tomorrow...not that it will matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I think DPs in the 70-75 range are a safe bet by later tomorrow...not that it will matter That seems like a reasonable guess. I realize this is only one location but GFS is 15+ degrees too high with dewpoints at ORD right now while the NAM is about 3-4 degrees too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 That seems like a reasonable guess. I realize this is only one location but GFS is 15+ degrees too high with dewpoints at ORD right now while the NAM is about 3-4 degrees too high. yep bone dry out...ribbon of moist air just getting to the mississippi and transport vectors look favorable. The upper 70s to low 80s DPs were always out to lunch but I think we can manage the low 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 ORD made it to 90...let the streak begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 88 here. Given that we're still pretty much in the maximum daylight period of the year and continuing WAA we might be able to add another 2-3 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 yep bone dry out...ribbon of moist air just getting to the mississippi and transport vectors look favorable. The upper 70s to low 80s DPs were always out to lunch but I think we can manage the low 70s. I'd bet on a dew point of 77-80 across the northern half of IL tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I'd bet on a dew point of 77-80 across the northern half of IL tomorrow. bold...hopefully it won't go to waste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I'd bet on a dew point of 77-80 across the northern half of IL tomorrow. Maybe at some crappy personal wx station/AWOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 88 here. Given that we're still pretty much in the maximum daylight period of the year and continuing WAA we might be able to add another 2-3 degrees. Definitely should hit 90 in the next hour.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 89 at FWA. It would be a shame to not be able to tack this day onto the streak after being so close. EDIT: My new point for tomorrow - 106° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Hit 90 about 19 mins ago here at the office, currently 89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 90/44 at Goshen at present. Really interested in seeing what the max temp and dewpoint will be Thursday and whether a MCS forms somewhere to complicate matters. Not really all that bad out. I'll enjoy it while I can. Just put in a new window AC for the upstairs bedroom last evening. Downstairs has central air. I'm ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 89 at FWA. It would be a shame to not be able to tack this day onto the streak after being so close. EDIT: My new point for tomorrow - 106° 90 at FWA. Still 88 at LAF...we used to routinely beat almost everyone in the state on days like this. Foreign feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Maybe at some crappy personal wx station/AWOS. If the sensor is placed less than 6 feet above a heavily irrigated field. I think average of the lowest 50-100mb is more meaningful in terms of convection potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Maybe at some crappy personal wx station/AWOS. Hey now! lol Dews came up pretty nicely here this afternoon. Were in the low 50s in the morning and have now shot up to 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 15z SREF lend good confidence to a thin stripe of DPs around 75 tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 We have a pretty serious drought situation unfolding here in the MW, and IMO people should be growing pretty concerned. We just came off of a VERY mild winter, melting snow provided no moisture, as we hardly got any, and the extremely dry spring, and now summer, farmers have to be biting their nails. I live out in the country next to fields of corn and beans, I have never seen the crops show so much stress this early in my life ( I'm 23 btw so i missed the 88 drought). The forecast looks pretty well bone dry, providing minor relief. 103 here here tomorrow, and mid to upper 90's until sunday Everyone be safe, and check on elderly neighbors if you have any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Hot, breezy day today. Still the dewpoints are dry sitting at 52°. Cooled off enough last night to allow the house to stay cool most of the day. Just turned the AC on at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Dew point has climbed to 69F .... Just about at that point where its greasy underpants wx... I plan on going for a bike ride, if the temp ever drops ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 88 here. Given that we're still pretty much in the maximum daylight period of the year and continuing WAA we might be able to add another 2-3 degrees. Intrahour 90 ftw. And so it begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 What a crap severe weather season... just pathetic... Is BowMe out drifting in L Michigan looking for cold eddys or did he run for Hudson Bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Unlike in the past, ORD has been as warm as or warmer than MDW during all 90+ days this year. Add another... Day....ORD..MDW.. 5/19....92......91 5/20....93......92 5/24....90......90 5/27....97......97 5/28....95......94 6/9......90......89 6/10....93......92 6/11....90......90 6/15....94......93 6/16....94......94 6/18....94......92 6/19....95......93 6/20....95......93 6/24....94......92 6/27....92......90 ----------------------- Tot......15......14.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 No bike ride. Spent several hours pulling weeds, watering and laying mulch... I was dripping sweat by the time I came into the house. Dew point is up to 74F now... At 9AM this morning it was 53F... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 For pure S&G's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 For those who are wondering if we can get a pattern change any time soon, well don't expect it. The MJO is looking to either hang around in Phase 1 or go into the Circle of Death, meaning what you see is what you get for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Dew point did jump up to 75f ...topped out at 95F today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Maybe at some crappy personal wx station/AWOS. Bingo. Two problems with extrapolating the highest dewpoints in southwest Iowa this afternoon to northern Illinois, etc., tomorrow. First, most of those higher dewpoint readings were from AWOS-quality (or worse) equipment. Second, western Iowa and adjacent areas, as has been mentioned in some previous posts, have had a good deal of rain recently; for the most part, we simply have not had that around here. Alek's call of low 70's is reasonable for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 For those who are wondering if we can get a pattern change any time soon, well don't expect it. The MJO is looking to either hang around in Phase 1 or go into the Circle of Death, meaning what you see is what you get for a while. For Sure Stebo, If the MJO stays in 1 and slowly mitigates to 2, This hot/ridging pattern should continue. I believe these are also the best phases for ATL basin Tropical development as well. The MJO is actually stuck in a very "La Nina" like Atmospheric Mode, The GWO can confirm this, even though The Eq Pac is like a Nino Oceanic Wise, the ATM is very La Ninaesque. A decoupled oceanic-ATM ENSO state if you will. What is interesting, this occurred in Winter, but the Atmosphere and Ocean ENSO states had been decoupled in an opposite fashion ( Nina Oceanic State, Nino Atmospheric State)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Bingo. Two problems with extrapolating the highest dewpoints in southwest Iowa this afternoon to northern Illinois, etc., tomorrow. First, most of those higher dewpoint readings were from AWOS-quality (or worse) equipment. Second, western Iowa and adjacent areas, as has been mentioned in some previous posts, have had a good deal of rain recently; for the most part, we simply have not had that around here. Alek's call of low 70's is reasonable for this area. Interestingly, ran a backwards parcel trajectory from for 18z tomorrow afternoon at ORD from the 00z NAM, and the low level parcels tomorrow should be originating from east central Missouri/southwest Illinois where the dews were in the upper 40s and lower 50s this afternoon. But that was without a weak cool front to pool some moisture along. It'll be interesting to see where they end up. There's only really been one case this month where we did get low 70s dewpoints into nrn IL, and that was 6/16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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