Hoosier Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 One thing I didn't think I'd see in my lifetime was heat/drought like the 1930's. We're not there yet and ultimately we may not reach that level, but at this rate this summer might end up in the conversation of the infamous years before it's over. When you have this kind of heat/dryness in June, it's often been a sign of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Nice explanation Hoar_Frost! My call would be for scattered thunderstorms with narrow corridors of rainfall. Will probably chip away at the dry conditions, instead of a widespread event. Keeping my fingers crossed for tropical remnants to come up with way later in the season. --- 73° currently with an east wind. -- Thundersnow, thought you might be still interning at WGN. Thanks. I think that your call is probably pretty reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 One thing I didn't think I'd see in my lifetime was heat/drought like the 1930's. We're not there yet and ultimately we may not reach that level, but at this rate this summer might end up in the conversation of the infamous years before it's over. When you have this kind of heat/dryness in June, it's often been a sign of things to come. The 500 mb ridge is just a beast on this run...you have to go to seattle or bangor to escape it in the lower 48. Breaking April heat records in March was a bad omen...I know most of us enjoy anomalous weather of all varieties but this is certainly the least fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Nice Post Hoar Frost, Pretty Much agree with you as we have discussed this already. New HPC 3 day is a little over the top, but It would be nice IMBY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 The 500 mb ridge is just a beast on this run...you have to go to seattle or bangor to escape it in the lower 48. Breaking April heat records in March was a bad omen...I know most of us enjoy anomalous weather of all varieties but this is certainly the least fun. I have relatives and friends back in the Pacific NW that are begging for some warmer weather. I told them they are pretty damn lucky and to enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 The 14 day rainfall has been higher to the west over Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa per this map. 850 mb flow will be feeding in from over those areas and at night that layer should become decoupled from the dryer lower boundary layer. There will have to be strong enough frontal forcing though which is probably more likely at night than during the heat of the day when stationary fronts tend to wash out and go dormant under the cap. I'm not too confident on severe weather though. Even with sufficient 0-6 km shear parameter, extreme top-heavy CAPE profiles often don't produce more than strong pulse storms with very heavy downpours with lots of lightning. Even when the cap breaks locally, it's hard for outflow to trigger new development when the mid-levels are warm and dry. So basically you get crappy storm propagation with very short lived MCS's. Cells sprout up where there's some larger scale convergence, form into a disorganized blob, and then rain themselves out. Outflow pools tend to fail at breaking the cap, so they run way out ahead of the parent MCS doing absolutely nothing. I don't see more than localized heavy rain happening with a few people getting lucky while others mostly miss out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 One thing I didn't think I'd see in my lifetime was heat/drought like the 1930's. We're not there yet and ultimately we may not reach that level, but at this rate this summer might end up in the conversation of the infamous years before it's over. When you have this kind of heat/dryness in June, it's often been a sign of things to come. I'm not that smart, but spitballing an idea...it seems we're really getting the feedback from the southwest, southern/central Plains drought that has been ongoing. Though I guess there has been some relief in places down there recently, but the general idea that it's had legs for the past however many years has to count for something. 1930's of course being a good example of this process, though magnitude was probably greater back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 12z Euro shows the heat right through the 4th of July... AC probably starts tonite and doesn't get shut off for some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Many areas of SE MI saw the day start in the 40s and end over 80 today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Made it to 85 after bottoming out at 47. Last week when we dipped into the upper 40s I said that would probably be the last 40s till Sept but it just had to prove me wrong lol. I'm guessing 95 tomorrow, 100 Thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 18z GFS continues to be convection happy after 0z Thursday evening along the frontal boundary and I tend to want to believe it given it's pushing the boundary back north some and with the help of these little waves riding the srn fringe of the mid-level flow, that should be enough to pop storms late Thursday along that boundary and get some to train across the area. The little s/w's have >50kts of flow at H5 to work with if something were to breach the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 getting at least some rain during the Thurs-Sun period is looking increasingly crucial given the increasing prolonged heat wave signals. This afternoons AFD from LOT was very skeptical of the GFS and measurable rain in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Just another look at the central plains...dew points in southern NE between 73-77 currently where the NAM only had a max of 70, GFS much closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Just another look at the central plains...dew points in southern NE between 73-77 currently where the NAM only had a max of 70, GFS much closer. Encouraging sign. We'll get some decent pooling along the front this far east, it's just hard to buy the 80-84 degree stuff being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Are we entering a 1930s era again? Hmm.. Mild winters and blistering hot summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Just another look at the central plains...dew points in southern NE between 73-77 currently where the NAM only had a max of 70, GFS much closer. IMO the GFS is actually doing worse than the NAM. The 12z GFS had a corridor of around 80F DP's at 0z from Nebraska down into Oklahoma. In reality most of that corridor currently has DP's in the low 70's at the max, with only a small part of NE seeing 74-77F DP's. On the other hand, the 12z NAM had most of that corridor around or into the low 70's DP range, which is closer to being correct for much of that corridor, excluding the small aforementioned area in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 The low 80-ish dews are overdone...period...but even the NAM is still plenty moist/unstable and even trimming off a bit it's still unstable. At this point i'm much more concerned about anemic forcing from the lightweight shortwaves than anything else. All that said, these shortwaves are typically hard to spot in this kind of pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Today was definitely a bonus day today, high 74°, sunny. Would be nice to see the GFS hold it's ground regarding convective activity and have it come true! Absolutely no mosquitoes to be found IMBY. About the only positive in a dry pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Just another look at the central plains...dew points in southern NE between 73-77 currently where the NAM only had a max of 70, GFS much closer. Note the recent heavy rainfall in southeastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas. That could be contributing to the heightened dewpoints in that region. The GFS does better during non-drought situations with dewpoint but even still overdoes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 IMO the GFS is actually doing worse than the NAM. The 12z GFS had a corridor of around 80F DP's at 0z from Nebraska down into Oklahoma. In reality most of that corridor currently has DP's in the low 70's at the max, with only a small part of NE seeing 74-77F DP's. On the other hand, the 12z NAM had most of that corridor around or into the low 70's DP range, which is closer to being correct for much of that corridor, excluding the small aforementioned area in NE. NAM only had upper 60's in a corridor of 70-75 right now from NE-northeast OK, granted these are 1z obs. Guess you can say NAM is too low and the GFS a bit too high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I won't clog up the severe thread but the dews on the RAP are significantly lower than what the NAM/GFS are offering today...especially over the most drought ravaged areas. Probably a good hint that they're being very much overdone for Thurs. That said, there is still be some pooling along the top of the ridge...just not much above 70. Either way, cap is looking even worse than before so I doubt anything goes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 June 2012 is currently the 2nd driest June on record for Chicago, with 0.44" at ORD on the month. We'll see how storm chances work out Thur night-Sat... 1. 0.12" - 1922 2. 0.44" - 2012 3. 0.55" - 1904 4. 0.76" - 2005 5. 0.78" - 1956 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Might be a struggle to reach 90 here at this rate. Only 82 right now. Edit: Just saw the low was 53. Maybe that is why we are lagging behind a bit right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I won't clog up the severe thread but the dews on the RAP are significantly lower than what the NAM/GFS are offering today...especially over the most drought ravaged areas. Probably a good hint that they're being very much overdone for Thurs. That said, there is still be some pooling along the top of the ridge...just not much above 70. Either way, cap is looking even worse than before so I doubt anything goes up. There was talk from LOT that the front or lake breeze could get the air parcels to go up through the cap.( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 87/40 with 20% humidity, breezy winds out of the south. The Fire Danger ATM is concerning!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 There was talk from LOT that the front or lake breeze could get the air parcels to go up through the cap.( lake breeze is going to be weak sauce...i very much doubt it will aid much in the convergence department Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Numerous Red FLag warnings have been hoisted over MI. The conditions outside are a tinderbox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 METAR KYIP 271753Z 20009G17KT 10SM CLR 32/08 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP139 T03170078 10322 20206 58020 Ypsi is nice n toasty. Taking the lead in the state. I wonder about this station? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Man, the RAP and NAM are not doing good with current dews out in IA. Area of 72-77 dews with 19z obs where the NAM only had upper 60's and the RAP even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 UGN is Waukegan right? Anyways...91 beating ORD and MDW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.